Making Sense of Kittle for Olsen

I have to admit, at first glance, this one was a head-scratcher. When the notification dropped into my inbox at approximately 12:31 PM ET yesterday, I felt like it had to be a mistake.

George Kittle for… Greg Olsen?

But Kittle is better than Olsen. He’s the fourth-ranked TE, a reliable starter in a year when TEs have been an absolute nightmare, averaging 9.3 ppg this season including 11 ppg over his last four, which is better than Robert Woods, Mike Evans, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen, Julian Edelman and A.J. Green (even if we discount the games he’s missed due to injury).

Geoff should know this. He traded away Mike Evans to acquire George Kittle. Remember, Kittle was the “jewel” in that six-player Week 5 trade with Gray. As much as I give Geoff a hard time on this blog for trading away a top-10 (now top-11) WR for a TE, Kittle has actually outperformed Evans since that trade. (Not to mention Sterling Shepard and Derrick Henry who have actually been okay the last few weeks—9.0 ppg and 12.3 ppg over their last three games, respectively.)

Olsen, on the other hand, has been battling injuries, which date back to last season. This week, he’s even been a limited participant on the Panthers injury report. But even when healthy, Olsen is averaging just 6.8 ppg—slightly above average for the position (league average this year is 6.2 ppg). Kittle by comparison has scored more points in the last four weeks than Olsen has all year long.

And they play the same position! So what gives? Why would you knowingly trade for a lesser player at the same position?

Well, apparently the schedule is what gives. This week, George Kittle is on bye, so almost assuredly Olsen will outscore Kittle in Week 11. And if you’re Geoff (3-7), you have to be living one week at a time. As we pointed out in yesterday’s Power Rankings, Geoff cannot afford to lose a single game from here on out. And beyond winning, he needs to pile up the points. So for one week, yes, this move unquestionably makes his team better.

Could he have just played Vance McDonald, who scored 10 points last week and is on his bench? Or picked up Jeff Heuerman (like Josh did), who is averaging 10.0 ppg over his last two games? Yes! That’s exactly what he should have done. Kidding. 😆🤣😂

But seriously, Olsen has the longer track record and is the less risky play. This week he’s unanimously rated by the ESPN rankers as the third-best TE. So I get it. Long-term planning is not a luxury that Geoff has.

But I can’t help but feel like this is a bit of predatory trading. Geoff is desperate for a win and is willing to sell his star TE for pennies on the dollar, mortgaging his future for a chance at a win in Week 11 against a difficult opponent in Jess. Geoff wasn’t willing to do Kittle for Woods two weeks ago, but he’ll do Kittle for Olsen now? Sensing an opportunity, Josh has really turned the screws here on our dear pal Geoff, kicking him while the chips are down.

And dammit why didn’t I think of that first?!

It’s a brilliant move for Josh. With a 77% chance of making the playoffs, Josh is thinking long-term. And in the playoffs, he’s one of the few teams that could challenge looming league juggernaut, Alex—he of the two top-4 picks. Josh is second in the Power Rankings and is actually averaging more points per game than Alex at QB, RB and WR. His one glaring weakness? Tight end where he ranks 11th in scoring with just 3.3 ppg.

Since bailing on Kyle Rudolph, Josh has been wandering the TE wilderness with Will Dissly, Benjamin Watson and Vance McDonald. It’s why just last week Josh was willing to give up a top-10 WR in Robert Woods for Greg Olsen, who it turns out was really just a one-week rental. Now if we simply replace Josh’s TEs this season with Kittle’s weekly production (9.3 ppg), it pushes his average scoring to 115.6 ppg, just ahead of Alex at 114.1 ppg. Which is probably why you saw Alex cry foul on WhatsApp.

In fact, one has to wonder why Josh and Geoff didn’t just do the Woods for Kittle deal in the first place. Instead, it ended up being like that riddle with the fox, chicken and bag of feed where you have to ferry all three across a river one-at-a-time without them eating each other.

In this case, Josh sent Woods to Geoff. Then brought back Olsen. Then sent Olsen back over. Then finally brought back Kittle. FWIW, Kittle just might be the best of the three as Woods was one of the players we mentioned earlier who Kittle has outscored over the last four weeks.

That being said, it’s not all roses for Josh. While this trade is definitely a move for the playoffs, there’s no guarantee that he gets there. Josh came up short in 2,263 of 10,000 simulations. And in the vast majority of those, it’s because he lost two out of his last three games to finish 6-7.

As a reminder, Josh’s last three opponents are Samantha, Alex and JT. He’s favored in two of those matchups, but will be a serious underdog against Alex in Week 12 as stars Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill will be on bye. Alex, meanwhile, will be at full strength.

Let’s say he loses to Alex. That means he needs to sweep Samantha and JT to finish with a winning season and feel really good about his chances. How likely is that? Given their current TW%’s, the computer says 51%—basically a coin flip. But remember, JT has one of the hottest teams in the league. And Samantha is a real wildcard. She’s the only owner outside the top-4 of the Power Rankings to have won a weekly prize this season. And perhaps that’s because she plays so many high-upside WRs. Yes, she’ll be without Tom Brady and David Njoku this week, but so too will Josh be without James White and Josh Gordon. And now, he’ll be without a TE too. Plus, it didn’t help that Mike Davis (Josh’s replacement for White) scored just 4 points on TNF last night. Josh is making a bet on the future, but he should maybe be a little more worried about his present.

Still, if we think about what’s most likely to happen, it’s that Josh will make the playoffs. Geoff will not. And now George Kittle, one of the top TEs in the league, will be joining Josh there to wage war against the other league heavyweights.

Look, part of me applauds not only Josh, but also Geoff for this move. I love that he is playing this thing to the bitter end. He’s embracing the role of spoiler. And he’s invested in winning eight more true games over the last three weeks to avoid becoming the worst team of all-time. That’s awesome.

By comparison, Greco (cough) played both Chris Carson and Rob Gronkwoski last week, neither of whom suited up for the game. And with Gronkowski, she’s played him multiple weeks when he’s been out with injury. In Week 7, she played him against Gray even though he didn’t even travel with the team to Chicago. At this point, she’s as close as you can get to an automatic win for the team owners who have her left on their schedules, especially Jess and Gray who get to play her for a second time this season. And as one of the two team owners who lost to Greco this season, that kinda sucks.

But does it make me feel a little queasy that a team with less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs (technically 0 out of 10,000 simulations) has given away one of his best players to a top-2 team in the league? Yes. The rich get richer.

But that’s why they’re rich, I guess.

Because of shrewd moves like this.