Week 10 Power Rankings
The arrival of fall has finally made itself known—leaves are changing, temperatures are dropping, and the pumpkin spice latte has mercifully given way to gingerbread chai at Starbucks. Netflix even released a Christmas movie called Hot Frosty, which is kinda like Weird Science meets Frosty the Snowman.
Unfortunately, fantasy points seem to be falling right along with the mercury. Much like the late arrival of sweater weather, fantasy scoring this season has been a bit sluggish. Teams are averaging just 114.3 points per game this year, putting us on track for the second-lowest scoring season since the switch to PPR and decimal-scoring in 2020. Week 10 continued the chilly trend, delivering a frosty average (not the good kind) of just 109.0 points per team—the second-lowest weekly mark of the season.
Still, not every team was caught in the scoring cold front. Ja’Marr Chase brought the heat with a scorching 55.4-point performance that featured 11 catches, 264 yards, and three TDs. That explosion ranks as the third-highest single-game total in league history. Speaking of which, here’s a look at the top-10 scoring performances in league history:
Tyreek Hill: 57.9 points (Jess, 2020)
Ja’Marr Chase: 55.6 points (Beth Ann, 2021)
Ja’Marr Chase: 55.4 points (Erik, 2024)
Joe Mixon: 55.1 points (Erik, 2022)
Jonathan Taylor: 53.4 points (Jess, 2021)
Tyler Lockett: 53.0 points (Josh, 2020)
Ja’Marr Chase: 52.2 points (Nick, 2023)
Doug Martin: 51.0 points (Alex, 2012)
DJ Moore: 49.0 points (Brandon, 2023)
Christian McCaffrey: 48.7 points (Brandon, 2023)
Impressively, Ja’Marr Chase accounts for three of these legendary outings, proving once again that he’s the kind of player who can keep your fantasy team warm even when the rest of the league is freezing over. In a season where points are as rare as a “corncob pipe and a button nose,” Chase is the magic hat bringing fantasy rosters to life.
With Week 10 behind us, it’s time to see how those highs and lows have reshaped the landscape in this week’s Power Rankings.
Beth Ann remains on top of the Power Rankings for a second straight week.
Following a low-scoring—and some might say lucky—win over Alex despite putting up just 101.52 points, Beth Ann maintained her spot at the top of the Power Rankings. But what’s more notable this season is the glaring absence of any truly dominant teams.
Perhaps it’s the plague of injuries, but parity has reached unprecedented levels this year. Our top-ranked team, Beth Ann, has a TW% of just .609. By comparison, at this point last season, two team owners—Gray (.673) and eventual champion Erik (.645)—had higher TW% marks than this year’s leader.
On the other hand, we’ve got a staggering eight teams with a TW% of .500 or better. Even Josh, at .491, isn’t far off. That’s a sharp contrast to Week 10 of last year, when just five team owners—fewer than half the league—were at .500 or better.
This got me wondering: Is this the most parity we’ve ever seen in league history? To find out, I plotted the final TW% for every team from 2011 to the present and compared it to this year’s TW% through Week 10. Take a look:
Forgive my laziness with the aesthetics. I pulled this chart straight from Excel.
Each vertical line on the x-axis represents a different year, from 2011 to today. Each dot represents a team, with higher dots indicating higher TW%.
You’ll spot Gray’s GOAT team from 2016 (.808), still the highest TW% in league history, famously upset in the playoffs. Alex’s Thanos team from 2018 (.794) isn’t far behind. At the opposite end, Nick’s 1-12 squad from 2020—the Worst’s worst—scrapes the bottom with a TW% of just .203.
But let’s not dwell on the outliers. Instead, focus on each year as a whole. Some years, we’ve seen one or two dominant teams—2011 (Gray), 2016 (Gray), and 2018 (Alex) come to mind. Beth Ann (2021) also stood out, creating clear separation from the rest of the league on her way to a championship. This year, however, Beth Ann’s current TW% ranks just 33rd out of all teams in league history. It’s the worst best-team TW% we’ve ever seen. Of course, there are still four weeks to go.
On the flip side, the bottom of the standings isn’t nearly as dire. The teams are tightly packed this year, and excluding Kelly, our 11th-ranked team has a TW% of .418—the best second-to-worst team in league history.
The takeaway? It’s anyone’s game. If you make the playoffs, there’s no reason to think you can’t win it all this year. That should make for an exciting finish to the season.
Speaking of which, let’s dive into the Playoff Picture.
This week’s biggest movers: Chelsie rose (+30%) and Gray plummeted (-30%).
With four weeks to go, let’s revisit WORST’s tiers: the favorites, contenders, dark horses, and long shots.
The Favorites (Samantha and Jess)
Two teams stand out as favorites, with Alex officially dropping out of this group (more on him below in the contenders).
Samantha now leads the league standings at 8-2, and no team with this record has ever missed the playoffs. She’s as close to a lock as it gets, even if she loses her final four games—missing the playoffs in just 3 out of 10,000 simulations. For Samantha, it’s now about securing a first-round bye, which the computer gives her an 87% chance of achieving.
Jess, on the other hand, had a rough week, losing shockingly to Kelly. Starting an inactive Nico Collins didn’t help, but at 7-3, she’s still in a strong position. One more win would likely secure her spot, and she currently ranks fourth in points. Even if she loses out, the computer gives her a 56% chance to make the playoffs.
The Contenders (Beth Ann, Chelsie, Alex, Geoff, and Josh)
Assuming Samantha and Jess are locks, five teams—Beth Ann, Chelsie, and Josh at 6-4, plus Alex and Geoff at 5-5—are vying for the remaining four playoff spots.
Here’s the playoff math:
8 wins: Virtually guarantees a playoff berth. Only one 8-win team (Beth Ann in 2022) has ever missed the playoffs.
7 wins: Brings a roughly 33% chance of making the playoffs, depending on tiebreakers. In some years (like 2021), multiple 7-win teams have made the playoffs.
With that in mind, points will be critical in determining who advances. Here’s the points leaderboard among the contenders:
Alex: 1,221.88 points
Geoff: 1,203.74 points
Beth Ann: 1,194.44 points
Chelsie: 1,162.84 points
Josh: 1,122.46 points
These teams are separated by just 100 points with four games to go, leaving plenty of room for movement. Here’s a breakdown of each contender’s outlook:
Beth Ann: Tops in the Power Rankings, Beth Ann boasts strong skill players across the board but is weaker at QB. She has games remaining against contenders (Geoff and Josh) plus matchups with Brandon and Gray. Her Week 12 showdown with Geoff is pivotal, given his slight points edge. She has a 99.6% chance with eight wins and a 47% chance with seven.
Chelsie: With Christian McCaffrey back, Chelsie’s team is trending up. She faces Alex, Geoff, and Josh—three other contenders—plus Brandon. She likely needs to go 2-2 down the stretch, with a 97.7% chance at eight wins but just a 31.5% chance with seven. If I’m Chelsie, two wins feel like a must.
Alex: How the mighty have fallen! Formerly a favorite, Alex has dropped three straight games, including two with the second-lowest weekly score. On the bright side, he has the league’s easiest remaining schedule, with games against Kelly and Greco. Winning those two games would give him a 78% chance to make the playoffs at 7-7. With three wins, his odds jump to 100%, and his points lead gives him a slim (4.9%) shot even at 6-8, giving him more outs than most.
Geoff: Not currently in the playoffs, Geoff is projected by the computer as the sixth seed. His second-place points total gives him a 60.0% chance at 7-7, with potential to surpass Alex in points. With two winnable games against Erik and Kelly (despite tougher matchups against Beth Ann and Chelsie), Geoff has a clear path to the playoffs if he performs.
Josh: Despite his 6-4 record, Josh’s low point total puts him in a precarious spot. He needs to stay a win ahead of Alex and Geoff to feel secure. However, with the third-toughest schedule (Gray, Erik, Beth Ann, and Chelsie), he’s in trouble. Two wins give him an 85.5% chance of making the playoffs, but just one drops his odds to 10%. Even at 8-6, he’s the most likely team to miss the playoffs.
The Dark Horse (Gray)
Gray’s Week 10 loss to Geoff knocks him into dark horse territory, with just a 31% chance overall. At 5-5 and seventh in the Power Rankings, his low point total—below all contenders except Josh—hurts his chances.
His best shot is to reach 8-6, giving him a 90.6% chance of making the playoffs. However, his brutal remaining schedule (Josh, Samantha, Erik, and Beth Ann) makes that an uphill climb. Gray will need a strong finish to get there.
The Long Shots (Erik, Brandon, Greco and Kelly)
While these teams are long shots, here’s what each needs to pull off the improbable:
Erik: At 4-6, Erik has the best record among this group. However, his low points total puts him at a disadvantage. Winning out (8-6) gives him an 87.6% chance, but at 7-7, his odds are slim (5.2%). Still, Ja’Marr Chase’s recent heroics keep Erik’s playoff hopes alive.
Brandon: Despite losing seven of his last eight games, Brandon’s .500 TW% suggests historically bad luck. To keep his playoff hopes alive, he’ll need to win out and finish 7-7, which gives him a slim 12.4% chance of making it. However, if he not only wins out but also erases the 80-point gap in total points over the final four weeks, his odds skyrocket to 80.9%. It’s a tough hill to climb, but stranger things have happened.
Greco: Sitting at 3-7, Greco’s narrow Week 10 loss to Chelsie may have sealed her fate this season. To keep hope alive, she’d need to win out, which gives her a slim 2.0% chance at making the playoffs with a 7-7 record. However, if she can pull off a clean sweep and erase a daunting 150-point deficit, her odds would soar to 74.0%. It’s a long shot, but as they say, it’s not over until it’s over.
Kelly: With her second win of the season, Kelly technically staved off elimination. At 2-8, she’d need to win out and overcome a 240-point deficit to have even a remote chance. No 6-8 team has made the playoffs in league history, but with only three years of 14-game regular seasons, the sample size is small. Hope springs eternal!
All in all, the playoff race is wide open, with plenty of unpredictable twists and turns still to come. The temperatures may be falling, but the season is only heating up. Good luck to everyone in Week 11!
