Week 1 Power Rankings
September is officially back-to-school time. And not just for the kids. All of us have something to learn this time of year. That’s because Week 1 is for learning.
Learning that your first-round RB, Saquon Barkley, may not be startable right away. That Aaron Rodgers could somehow finish as QB35 when there are only 32 NFL teams. (How does that math add up?) That preseason hype for players like Marquez Callaway might be just that—hype. Maybe you learned that your team is not what you thought it was. It’s way worse. Or if you’re lucky, way better.
But no matter whether you got an A+ or completely bombed your first test in Week 1, what’s most important is that you learn from it. And that’s all part of the fun. So get your graphing calculator and your trapper keeper ready.
Let’s see what we can learn from Week 1.
A Quick Note on Format
As I mentioned in last week’s Draft Reactions, I’m going to experiment with the form a little bit. Specifically, we’re going to dispense with the usual “recap” stuff and spend more time on the analysis. Less time talking about what happened. More time taking about what it means. And structurally, we’re going to use the Power Rankings as the architecture for these posts, going team owner by team owner, providing notes and tidbits for each.
The Scoreboard
But first, let’s take a look at this week’s scoreboard.
Nick narrowly edged out Erik to lead all scorers with a career high 176.96 points in Week 1.
The big picture takeaway from Week 1 is that the meek shall inherit the Worst. Specifically, some of the team owners who have traditionally found themselves at the bottom of the power structure are now on top. Nick, Erik and Geoff—all of whom rank in the bottom half of the league based on career TW%—all had huge Week 1s.
Meanwhile, four of last year’s playoff teams including those owned by Beth Ann, Brandon, Greco and Jess all suffered humbling losses with middling point totals. They were joined in their futility by Josh, last year’s top overall team owner in the final Power Rankings, who failed to top 100 points for the first time in the PPR era.
This reversal of fortunes has turned the Worst League’s traditional power structure upside down. Given that, let’s take a look at the Power Rankings and count it down from first to worst.
Power Rankings
Nick leads the Power Rankings for the first time… ever.
1. Nick
Turns out all we had to do to motivate Nick was institute a last-place punishment. Following a 1-12 season and the worst year of his or anyone’s career, Nick came out firing in Week 1 with a career high 176.96 points. Not only that, but his 92-point margin of victory over Greco was fourth-largest in league history.
What did he do right? He drafted players that catch the ball. Darren Waller alone had a mind-bending 19 targets. I’m going to be wrong a lot in this space, but I did speculate on the potential of his receiving prowess in last week’s draft review:
Nick also invested in receivers early with four straight picks on pass-catchers, including Darren Waller, CeeDee Lamb, Cooper Kupp and Tee Higgins. We might be looking at the receptions leader.
Turns out that was 100% accurate, at least for one week. In Week 1, Nick’s 39 receptions led the league and were tied for the second-most ever in the PPR era, eclipsed only by Josh’s 41 from Week 7 of last year. For reference, league average was 25.8.
As a result, Nick won the weekly prize, his second ever. (Technically, he’s led the league in scoring 10 times now, but most were in 2011 and 2012 before we instituted weekly prizes.) What’s more remarkable is that Nick’s Week 1 performance now puts him atop the Power Rankings for the first time ever. It’s also the first time he’s appeared in the top half of the Power Rankings since 2019 and his first time in the top three since 2014.
And you know what? With the talent and depth on this roster, I don’t think he’s going anywhere. Get used to Nick at the top.
2. Erik
Nick wasn’t the only one setting records in Week 1. Until Darren Waller’s explosive Monday night, it seemed like Erik would take home the season’s first weekly prize. Still, his 172.16 points were easily a new career high and more than enough to take down Jess.
Leading the way were two of Week 1’s top-three scorers—Amari Cooper (38.9 points) and Kyler Murray (33.56), both of whom open the season atop the rankings at their respective positions. But I’m not here to talk about Erik’s QB or his WRs. I’m here to talk about his RBs.
Remember when I gloated about being right in Nick’s blurb above? Well, my “analysis” on Erik’s team did not go as well…
Is it possible that Erik’s team might have swept its own leg? Meaning: his RBs. In fact, Erik was the second-to-last team owner to draft a RB, selecting Joe Mixon with the 18th overall pick in the second round. And he was the very last to draft an RB2, waiting until the eighth round to select Melvin Gordon, currently the backup in a committee in Denver.
Looks like I’m the one who took Daniel LaRusso’s crane kick to the face.
Because it turns out those RBs are doing just fine. Mixon and Gordon helped Erik to a combined 45.8 points in Week 1—the most for any team owner in the league. And that includes teams that started three RBs. If Erik can keep this up, more good things are in store.
Another good sign for Erik? Starting in the top two of the Power Rankings almost always leads to the playoffs. In fact, an astounding 18 of 20 (or 90% of) first- and second-place teams in Week 1 Power Rankings go on to make playoffs. Gotta like those odds if you’re Erik or Nick for that matter.
3. Geoff
Tyreek Hill (37.1 points) was awesome. Ditto for Adam Thielen (30.2).
But I want to talk about Ty’Son Williams. After an injury to Gus Edwards just two days after the Worst draft, Williams was catapulted into both the Ravens’ and Geoff’s starting lineups. He promptly scored 18.4 points and finished as RB9 in Week 1 ahead of other first-round talents like Alvin Kamara and Derrick Henry.
For Geoff, it’s huge to get another starting-caliber RB to compliment his second- and third-round picks, Najee Harris and Miles Sanders. But to get that level of production in the 11th round, which is where Williams was drafted, that’s potentially league-winning.
And the irony of it all is that Geoff is usually on the other side of these devastating injuries. This time, he benefits. As I noted in the draft review, it’s specifically “a karmic reversal of fortunes” for 2018 in which Geoff lost Le’Veon Bell while Alex benefited from his 11th-round selection of James Conner. Now the proverbial cleat is on the other foot.
Also, good for Geoff in Week 1:
He was the only team owner with three players who ranked in the top 10 of all scorers in Week 1. And he didn’t even start one of them. That’d be Jameis Winston.
Geoff’s early-season hustle is already paying off as free agent pickup Nelson Agholor finished in the top 25 of all WRs despite going undrafted.
He won despite -3 points from his 10th-round Buccaneers D/ST. 🤷
4. Alex
The QB whisperer can’t be stopped!
Jalen Hurts, the 14th QB taken off the board who was selected in the 11th round of this year’s draft, scored 28.76 points in Week 1 and finished as QB5. Hurts looked strong in his sophomore opener for the Eagles, leading Alex’s team to an easy victory over Brandon. Though Alex noted in the draft chat that he planned on drafting Trey Lance, the fact that Hurts fell to him seems to have been fortuitous. Because if any QB taken in the back half of the draft has a good chance at an unlikely ride to QB1, it’s probably Hurts.
As for the rest of the team, big performances from several key contributors (Nick Chubb, Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett) helped him to weather the early storm of injuries. No team owner has been more impacted than Alex who has already lost his fifth-round pick, Gus Edwards, to a season-ending injury and sixth-rounder Jerry Jeudy to a high-ankle sprain that will keep him out at least four-to-six weeks.
5. Gray
Gray narrowly edged out Samantha thanks to 11 points from Justin Tucker on Monday night. It was a quiet opening for the two-time former champion whose mid-round selections of Odell Beckham Jr. and Michael Thomas (both out with injury) left him to play 10th-round sleeper Marquez Callaway in the flex.
Nevertheless, he survived Callaway’s 2.4 points along with Kyle Pitts’ underwhelming debut (7.1 points), who was drafted ahead of T.J. Hockenson (25.7 points), to come out on top. That was thanks largely to the biggest draft-day value based on ADP—Patrick Mahomes. His 33.28 points were second only to Kyler Murray among QBs in Week 1.
But don’t sleep on Gray just yet. Slow starts out of the gate are a bit of a familiar thing for him. In fact, in each of the last three years, Gray has started Week 1 in the bottom third of the Power Rankings. That includes a championship season in which he started last. This year, he starts fifth—his best Week 1 ranking since 2016. And most important, he gets the win.
Lastly, I’m keeping an eye on those receptions as Gray ranked dead last with just 15 in Week 1 one year after he led the league with 27.8 per week.
6. Samantha
The highest-ranked team owner to lose in our Power Rankings, Samantha once again starts her season 0-1 after a narrow loss to Gray. If that sounds familiar, that’s because in four years now Samantha has never won her Week 1 game. In fact, she’s never won her Week 2 game either, routinely falling in the hole early. She’s also on a bit of a losing streak now, having lost four straight games dating back to a Week 11 loss to Josh last season.
But it’s not all doom and gloom for Samantha. There’s plenty of room for optimism given the fact that she was one of only four team owners in Week 1 to total over 30 receptions, joining Nick, Geoff and Erik—the other three teams at the top of the rankings. With only two total TDs from her entire starting lineup (worst in the league in Week 1), signs point to some regression to the mean. That’s because while TDs can be flukey, receptions (and yardage) are better indicators of sustained success.
In short, if she can keep up the receptions we saw in Week 1, she’ll return to the win column soon enough. And maybe for the first time, it’ll come in Week 2.
7. Whitney
Despite just 112.26 points (82 pre-PPR) in a matchup against Beth Ann, Whitney came out on top. After reviewing her career scoring log, I’m sensing a bit of a theme. Just take a look at her winning scores since she joined the league:
110.86 (Week 1, 2020)
98.78 (Week 2, 2020)
92.12 (Week 5, 2020)
130.64 (Week 10, 2020)
116.14 (Week 11, 2020)
112.26 (Week 1, 2021)
With the exception of Week 5 last year, that’s some pretty good luck. As you can see, five of Whitney’s six career wins have now come with a score below 117.9 points, the average weekly score in the PPR era.
As for this new team, there are some positive signs. Last year, Saquon Barkley’s injury meant Whitney finished next-to-last in RB scoring. But this year, it appears the ground game will be a relative strength for her with both Dalvin Cook and Kareem Hunt finishing in the top 13 at their position in Week 1. Tom Brady (27.16) also started out strong and doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon.
But that’s not-so-much the case with her receivers. Next week, she’ll hope for a bounceback game from some of her pass-catchers as none of her starters finished within the top 30 at their position. Ditto in disappointment for third-round pick George Kittle who finished as TE16 in Week 1. With Michael Gallup injured and out for three to five weeks with a calf injury, the silver lining may be the performance of Sterling Shepard, a 16th-round pick who scored 24.3 points, good enough for WR8. Go figure.
Overall though, I’d say things are looking up for Whitney. She starts seventh in our Power Rankings this season, which is a personal high for her. Last year, she started eighth and only dropped from there, finishing 11th. This year, things could be very different. Case in point, Alex picked Whitney’s team in a segment on “roster envy” as one of his top-three favorites in a new episode of the podcast recorded earlier this week. Be on the lookout for that soon.
8. Beth Ann
What happened to Aaron Rodgers? Beth Ann’s Saints, I guess.
Last season’s NFL MVP finished with just 1.32 points in a stunning route by Jameis Winston and the New Orleans Saints. Ironically, the QB on her bench, rookie Trevor Lawrence, easily outpaced Rodgers, scoring 19.08 points. If Rodgers had scored just 11 points (something he did in all but one game last season) it would have been the difference in her game against Whitney this week.
But I’m not too worried about Beth Ann’s team. Aside from our current top three of Nick, Erik and Geoff (who all had superlative Week 1s), Beth Ann and Whitney were the only team owners with both RB and WR scoring that ranked in the top eight of the league. And her combined output at those two positions ranked fifth, behind only the current top four in the Power Rankings. If Rodgers rebounds, not to mention Mark Andrews who also had a quiet Week 1, she’ll be back in business.
Lastly, there’s some interesting stuff happening on her bench. Notably, Jamaal Williams, the backup RB in Detroit, finished as RB2 in Week 1 behind only Christian McCaffrey. Did not expect that. And then there’s the curious case of Juwan Johnson, who I may have mocked in last week’s draft recap:
She also drafted Juwan Johnson, a Saints TE not named Adam Trautman who I personally had never heard of, in the 16th round. You know you’re a Saints fan when you draft a backup to your backup TE.
Oops… Well, it turns out that may have been a shrewd selection. The former WR transitioned to TE in the offseason and had two TDs in Week 1.
9. Jess
Jess’ Week 1 Starters: 102.64 points
Jess’ Week 1 Bench: 108.98 points
Yup, you read that right. Jess’ bench actually outscored her starters. Not only that, but she easily led all team owners in Week 1 in bench production. What that means is that there’s some serious depth here, which is something that we spoke at length about in the draft preview:
While some team owners will struggle to fill their flex spot each week, Jess has an embarrassment of riches there. With Jonathan Taylor, Chris Carson, Stefon Diggs and Robert Woods likely locked in to the RB and WR spots, she’s deciding between guys like Josh Jacobs and Mike Davis or Courtland Sutton and Deebo Samuel in the flex. The only problem is going to be deciding who to start.
Turns out she picked the wrong guys in Week 1. Starting Deebo Samuel (31.9 points), DJ Chark (17.6), Josh Jacobs (17.0) and Tyler Higbee (11.8) could have gotten her up to 142.84 points, but that wouldn’t have made the difference. Her opponent, Erik, was simply too good in Week 1.
But it does signal good things moving forward. Most notably, Deebo Samuel’s arrow is pointing up, drafted 41 spots behind Brandon Aiyuk who had 0 points in a surprising Week 1. As is Courtland Sutton’s who could benefit with more targets now that Jerry Jeudy will miss time due to injury.
One other interesting thing to note is that losing in Week 1 is completely foreign to Jess. In fact, this was Jess’ first Week 1 loss since 2012, having won eight straight season openers until this year. That’s remarkable. She’s now 9-2 in Week 1 games, easily the best mark in the league.
10. Brandon
Week 1 couldn’t have gone much worse for Brandon.
Already shallow at RB2, Brandon lost his sixth-round pick, Raheem Mostert, to a season-ending injury after just two runs of 20 yards. Mostert now joins Alex’s fifth-round pick, Gus Edwards, as the only two players lost to season-ending injuries so far. That’s a tough blow.
But it wasn’t just Mostert. The Titans looked anemic, bringing question to Brandon’s investments in both Derrick Henry (10.7 points) and A.J. Brown (14.9). And Ryan Fitzpatrick’s injury could put Logan Thomas’ production (12.0) in doubt.
But perhaps the most inexplicable thing to happen in Week 1 was the complete disappearance of Brandon Aiyuk. After an explosive finish to his rookie season that helped lead Greco to the championship game, many believed Aiyuk was poised for a big 2021. And he still may be. But after one game of just 26 snaps, no targets and 0.0 points, it appears Deebo Samuel has passed Aiyuk on the depth chart for now. The big question is whether this is an indictment on Aiyuk and a signal of his regression or if this has more to do with a reported hamstring issue. Either way, it’s not great for Brandon.
The one saving grace? Elijah Mitchell. In a move that may have saved his season, Brandon picked up the rookie RB less than one hour before kickoff. Mitchell then promptly went on to set the record for most rushing yards (104) in a 49ers debut. If Brandon had not made that move, Mitchell would likely be on Josh’s roster right now given that Josh had the highest waiver priority this week.
Despite the disappointing loss, his third Week 1 loss in the last four years, don’t count out Brandon just yet. In two of those 0-1 starts, he went on to win the championship anyway. And coincidentally, he last started 10th in the Power Rankings as recently as 2018, also a championship year.
This one’s just going to take a little more work.
11. Josh
Josh at 11th? Now, that’s unexpected.
With just 93.78 points (65 pre-PPR) in Week 1, this was Josh’s lowest-scoring season opener in four years. And that includes two seasons of pre-PPR scoring when point totals were generally lower. Not only that, but it was Josh’s lowest score in his last 14 regular season games, having never totaled fewer than 100 points in all of 2020.
Now he finds himself in unfamiliar territory near the bottom of the rankings. In fact, Josh hasn’t even been in the bottom half of the Power Rankings since Week 12 of 2017. And this is the lowest he’s been since he started out that same season in 11th place after a 57-point debut.
The culprit? The early investment in RBs (remember, he spent his first three picks on RB) was not able to make up for deficiencies at WR and QB, at least in Week 1. Josh ranked 12th and 10th, respectively at those two positions in Week 1. And if not for D’Andre Swift’s somewhat surprising 24.4-point game, the overall result could have been worse.
Still, it’s early. And despite what I said on the podcast where Alex and I played “panic or patience” with the bottom three teams in the Power Rankings, I’m really not panicking too terribly much on this team. But with Ryan Tannehill at the helm and Mike Evans and Chase Claypool in at WR, this team may be a little boom/bust if the RBs aren’t dominating every week.
Next up for Josh is a pivotal matchup with Jess, both of whom lost their first game. Winner gets back to .500. Loser drops to 0-2.
12. Greco
Might we be looking at a Super Bowl hangover?
One year after an improbable run to the title game where she came up just short of a second championship, Greco bombed her season opener, scoring just 84.68 points (64 pre-PPR) in her Week 1 game against Nick. If we adjust for pre-PPR scoring, it was her worst Week 1 debut since 2014 when she scored just 47 points against Gray. That season she finished with the second-worst TW% of her career (.304), which ranks just outside the 10 worst seasons of all time. So, not a good sign.
Turns out the aerial attack we predicted in the draft review is still grounded, at least for now. Despite being the only team owner to go WR/WR with her first two picks, Greco totaled only 17 receptions in Week 1, second-fewest in the league, as Davante Adams and the rest of the Packers struggled. Meanwhile, Mike Gesicki failed to register a single point—one of only two skill position players (the other being Brandon Aiyuk) to get 0.0 points in Week 1.
I think things will get better. They almost certainly have to. But moving forward, it will be interesting to see what, if any, adjustments Greco makes. Remember, she made just seven moves all of last season. So if her players can’t turn things around, it could be a challenge. But for now, I have faith her team will soon take flight.
Looking Ahead to Week 2
Next week, we’ve got two matchups of undefeated teams. Erik (1-0) will take on Alex (0-1) while Geoff (1-0) will take on Gray (1-0). The winners move to 2-0.
Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, Jess (0-1) and Josh (0-1) will face off as will Brandon (0-1) and Greco (0-1). Nobody wants to start the season 0-2, so we’ll be seeing some desperate team owners, self included.
Finally, Samantha (0-1) will hope to get back on the winning track when she plays Whitney (1-0). And most intriguing of all, we’ll see if Nick (1-0) can keep his hot start going in a game against Beth Ann (0-1).
That’s it for Week 1. As I alluded to in this post, Alex and I did record an episode of the podcast earlier this week. So be on the lookout for that. Glad to be back and good luck to all in Week 2.
