2021 Season Preview — The Worst League

Welcome back Worst League where it’s t-minus six days until the launch of a new season!

Despite raging wildfires, punishing hurricanes, rising temperatures and a global pandemic, there’s still one thing on this pale blue dot that’s beautiful and true—fantasy football. And it’s back, baby. So let the billionaires of the world race to the be the first to escape our turbulent planet. That’s one small step compared to the giant leap it requires to plant your flag atop the Worst League. And this year, we will crown yet another champion as one among us will burn bright as a shining star forever in the firmament that is the Hall of Champions.

Back here on Earth, we celebrate an important milestone this year—the 10th anniversary of our inaugural season. That’s right. It’s been almost 10 years to the day that we started this fantasy football league inside—where else—a Buffalo Wild Wings in northeast Austin.

Where it all began—the Buffalo Wild Wings at 7604 N I-35 in Austin, TX.

On September 5, 2011, we all piled into a booth or pulled up a chair at precisely 9 PM as the league’s first Worst draft got underway. How do I know that? I dug up this note in my inbox from our commissioner:

I just wanted to remind everyone that the draft will be tonight at 9 o’clock. We will be conducting on online live draft, which means it can be done from any computer anywhere, we are also going to get together. So for all of you who can make it Buffalo Wild Wings is giving us a pretty awesome complimentary draft package, including ten dollar gift certificates for future visits, 5 of which will be given to the league champion. So we will be meeting at 8:30 at the Buffalo Wild Wings near 183 and I35. Again this is NOT required the draft can be done from anywhere. It is just an added perk to get the competitive juices flowing. See everyone there!

As the league’s first champion, I can’t recall if I ever got those b-dubs gift certificates. In fact, I don’t remember much about that first draft. I might have eaten fried pickles. I definitely brought a binder of some sort with a bunch of cheat sheets that had been printed, three-hole punched and hastily annotated. But for sure I know that Geoff selected Adrian Peterson with the first overall pick, and then… we were off.

Since then, we all graduated and rocketed across the country. But over the years, the league has stayed strong. With team owners now stretching across nine cities from coast to coast, we’ve survived the moves, the turnover and even (knocks on wood) a global pandemic. Some of us are even responsible parents now. Well, parents at least.

Remarkably, eight of the league’s 12 founding members remain a part of the league—Alex, Erik, Geoff, Gray, Greco, Jess, Nick and yours truly. Pretty good retention if you ask me. Josh joined a few years later. And while the likes of Jackie, Adan, Terryn, Trevor and JT have come and gone, relative newcomers like Samantha, Beth Ann and Whitney have brought new blood and the occasional perfectly-timed reaction GIF to the group chat.

In all, we’ve drafted 1,920 players, picked up another 2,417 off waivers or in free agency, made 64 trades, played 826 games including 10 that resulted in ties, scored precisely 154,504 points, and crowned 10 champions, including half of the league’s current members (Alex, Brandon, Geoff, Gray, Greco and Jess).

We’ve had teams finish as strong as 11-2 (Gray twice) or as meekly as 1-12 (Nick). We’ve seen a 21-point game (Erik) and a 191.82-point game (Jess). We’ve had eight teams eclipse the century mark in scoring per game including a record 114.7 ppg from Alex in 2018. And then witnessed nine teams surpass that record in just our first year with PPR scoring. We’ve seen a blowout of more than 100 points (Jess over Greco last year) and 26 nail-biters decided by two points or less, including twice in the championship game (Geoff over Brandon in 2016 and Brandon over Jess in 2018).

We’ve seen good luck and bad luck, legendary comebacks and maddening meltdowns, waiver wire obsessives and team owners asleep at the wheel who won anyway. We’ve seen prescient pickups, disastrous drops, inopportune injuries, trades that made us pull our hair out and everything in between.

And while some things change, others remain extraordinarily the same. Case in point, in 10 years, there have even been 11 players that have been drafted in the Worst League every single season. As you might expect, most of them are QBs, but impressively four are WRs and one is a RB. Trivia time! How many of the 11 can you name? If you can guess the RB without looking, I’ll buy you a $10 gift certificate to Buffalo Wild Wings. (Scroll to the bottom for answers.)

So what will 2021 bring? Only one way to find out.

Attention: Worst League. We are go for launch!

2021 Rule Changes

Speaking of change, every year brings with it something new. And this year, we have a handful of rule changes. So let’s quickly run through them all to make sure everyone is up to speed and discuss any potential implications.

1. New Schedule 📅

Over the years, the schedule has remained relatively the same. You play every team owner once from Weeks 1-11 and then play a rematch against two of those owners in Weeks 12-13. Looking back historically, those schedules have been locked year over year with teams playing the same two opponents almost every season. For example, I’ve played Samantha and Alex twice every year for the last three years.

The only exceptions have been (1) when a new team owner has joined the league and (2) a shuffling of the schedule in 2018. For the former, when a new team owner joins the league, they typically slide into the slot in the schedule occupied by the outgoing team owner. For example, instead of playing JT in Week 13 last year, Josh played Whitney, the team owner that replaced him. As for the latter, for whatever reason, the schedule changed in 2018 to give us new repeat opponents. I have no idea why this happened and it largely went unnoticed by anyone in the league. If I had to guess, that’s also the year we shifted to a six-team playoff. So perhaps changing that setting resulted in a new schedule. Regardless, we’ve had that same schedule for the last three years.

Obviously, this means that some team owners have had a more difficult road to the playoffs than others simply by virtue of having tougher repeat opponents. Over the last three years, no one’s had it harder than Alex who has had to play both Brandon (2nd in career TW%) and Josh (3rd) twice. (Coincidentally, he still plays those two with the new schedule. But a cushier third rival means he no longer has the toughest schedule in the league. More on that below.)

Moving forward, a randomized schedule will make things more equitable for everyone in the league. The schedule won’t always be balanced, but like the draft, your opponents will be determined at random every year.

One more note about this year’s schedule—you may or may not have heard that the NFL expanded their regular season schedule from 16 to 17 games. This means that our fantasy regular season will also grow from 13 to 14 games. (We’ll continue to have a three-week playoff, which will now start in Week 15.) As a result, each team owner will play three team owners twice instead of just two.

Given that, let’s take a look at this year’s schedule to see who has the toughest road and how things have changed. The chart below shows the average career TW% of your three repeat opponents in 2021, which you will play in Weeks 1-3 and again in Weeks 12-14.

Geoff, Alex and Whitney have the toughest schedules this year as measured by opponents’ avg. TW%.

As you can see, Geoff has the toughest schedule this year because he faces Josh (3rd in career TW%), Gray (1st) and Jess (6th) twice. Other tough schedules include Alex (vs. Brandon, Erik and Josh) and Whitney (vs. Beth Ann, Samantha and Gray).

On the flip side, Gray, Beth Ann and Samantha have the easiest schedules. The computer thinks Gray’s schedule is particularly blessed because of repeat matchups against Samantha, Geoff and Whitney, three team owners currently ranked in the bottom half of the career Power Rankings. That being said, it’s not as “easy” as it seems. Samantha is less than two good weeks away from ranking as high as sixth, Geoff is a former champion, and Whitney has only one injury-plagued season on record.

Another way to look at the chart is to see how your fortunes have changed from a year ago. Compared to the last few years, Geoff, Erik, Josh and Jess will face tougher schedules than they’re used to. Meanwhile, Alex, Greco, Samantha and Gray will find it easier than it has been previously. For the other four team owners—Whitney, Brandon, Nick and Beth Ann—it’ll be about the same.

Of course, the major caveat is that we’re looking at career TW%. From year to year, teams fluctuate in quality. Everyone has good or bad years. And regardless of what this chart looks like this year, the rule change means that the schedule will continue to be randomized from year to year. So just because you have a “tough” schedule this year, doesn’t mean it will always be that way. Moving forward, things should be much fairer.

2. Divisions Eliminated 🙅‍♂️

One of the other big structural changes has been the elimination of divisions.

Who knows why we had them in the first place? But from the start, we’ve always had the two—the Leaders and the Legends Division. Initially, they weren’t even comprised of the same team owners. The divisions appear to have been shuffled every year from 2011-2013. It wasn’t until 2014 when Josh came into the league that the divisions locked and took their current form.

Their biggest role is in determining the teams that make the playoffs. Specifically, the two division winners are guaranteed a spot. The side effect of this is that it’s technically possible for the best team from a bad division to make the playoffs over a more deserving team from a better division. Technically, this could only ever happen if the best six teams were all in one division. In 10 years, that’s never happened.

But it does give away a valuable bye to a team that could be less deserving just because it’s in an easier division. This has happened in two of the last three years since we’ve had a six-team playoff. And simply re-seeding the teams by record instead of granting the top two seeds to the division winners could have resulted in a different champion in 2018.

That year, eventual champion Brandon got the two seed that otherwise would have gone to Alex. In a one-division league, Brandon would have instead dropped to the four seed and been eliminated in the first round by Josh. If we let the rest of this hypothetical play out, Josh (who had been eliminated in the first round) would have advanced all the way to the championship game where he would have defeated Alex to claim his first championship.

Of course, this is purely speculative. I’m making these judgements based on the box scores listed in the historical playoff brackets. And it’s unclear if these figures represent the true totals teams would have scored during bye weeks or after eliminated since team owners understandably don’t set their lineups when they’re not playing. But it’s still fun to wonder.

Regardless, this will no longer be a concern moving forward. The best teams by record will make the playoffs, and the best two will get first-round byes.

3. TEs are flex eligible. 💪

While all the other rule changes were unanimous, this one was the most contested. Nevertheless, the rule passed 7-4 (with Beth Ann abstaining) and now TEs are eligible to be played in the flex. That means it’s now possible to play two TEs in your lineup if you wish.

But is anyone really going to do it? The truth is it’s already slim pickings for TEs. If we assume each team owner starts one TE, how likely is it that the next-best TE is worthy of a flex play? Last year’s TE13 was Jimmy Graham who scored 143.6 points or 9.0 ppg. By comparison, that would have ranked 31st among RBs (Devin Singletary) and 53rd among WRs (Jakobi Meyers). In other words, you’ll probably have a better option at RB, WR or even off the waiver wire than the next-best TE.

That is unless someone aggressively adopts a two-TE strategy. Just last year, Josh spent his sixth- and seventh-round picks on TEs. And both guys (Tyler Higbee and Darren Waller) had games of 25+ points in the first two weeks. Last year, he could only play one at a time. But now he could play both. And while Higbee trailed off, eventually finishing as TE17, it might prove to be an effective strategy for someone else moving forward.

4. IR Slots Remain 🚑

Last year, we instituted two new IR slots due to the fact that players were expected to miss time due to COVID. Turns out, those were great additions. Over the course of the season, fantasy-relevant players like Lamar Jackson, Cam Newton, Ezekiel Elliott, James Conner, Kenny Golladay, Corey Davis, Mark Andrews and T.J. Hockenson all tested positive for the virus. Many more missed time just for being exposed to others who had. There were large outbreaks on both the Titans and Ravens rosters, which caused games to be rescheduled. And in one of the strangest stories of the season, the Broncos were forced to start a WR off their practice squad after every QB on their roster was forced to quarantine for failing to follow mask protocols.

This year, we have the vaccine! But the Delta variant has made things just as unpredictable as last season. The NFL is doing everything it can to encourage players to get vaccinated. But not everyone is on board (looking at you Cole Beasley). And even if teams like the Atlanta Falcons are 100% vaccinated, breakthrough infections are still possible.

Given the uncertainty, it’s a good idea to keep those two IR slots for at least another year. Remember, if your player has an injury designation next to his name listing him as out (O) or on injured reserve (IR), that means you can put him in your IR slot, which allows you to add another player to your bench. Take advantage of that fact, even if it’s not for COVID reasons. But remember, once they lose that designation or are declared active, you’ll have to move them back to your bench and drop a player before you can place a waiver claim or make any additional moves.

5. No Transactions after Elimination 🚫

This one came up in the group chat last year during the playoffs after Alex (who was not in the playoffs) picked up a replacement for an injured kicker, and I made a big stink about it. Now, we’ve formally codified what is kind of an unwritten rule to some in fantasy, which is not to make any moves after your team has been eliminated.

The general idea is that if you’re eliminated and you have nothing to gain from adding/dropping players, it can only hurt other players in contention. So just don’t do it.

To clarify, this does NOT apply during the regular season. Even if your team has been eliminated from playoff contention, you should still play out the rest of the regular season, which includes setting your lineup and trying to field the best team possible each and every week. Add players. Drop players. Submit waiver claims. It’s only fair to the rest of the league and other playoff hopefuls that the teams remaining on your schedule should have to go up against the best version of your team, not a team on autopilot.

This rule really only applies during the playoffs. Once you’re eliminated, stop making moves.

Of course, this year more teams will be playing longer because of our sixth and final rule change, which was a vote to approve the infamous…

6. Last-Place Punishment 😈

This year, being the Worst’s worst will come with some additional shame in the form of a last-place punishment for the first time in our history.

Personally, I think this is a great change. Not just because I’ve almost assuredly jinxed myself to finish in last place this season, but because it gives everyone something to play for even if you don’t make the playoffs.

So how do we determine the last-place team? After the regular season ends, the six teams that don’t make the playoffs will be entered into the consolation ladder. You might have noticed this already happens every season anyway. Only this time, those games will count.

Just like the rest of the playoffs, it’s three rounds. But pay attention, because the way it works is a little different than the winner’s bracket. Since it’s a “ladder,” teams are seeded by record and paired in descending order. 7 vs. 8 at the top of the ladder. 9 vs. 10 in the middle. And 11 vs. 12 at the bottom. After each round, each game’s winner moves “up,” while the loser moves “down.” Note that the “top” team in the ladder can’t move “up” after a win, and likewise, the “bottom” team can’t move “down.” Play continues for three rounds.

In the third round, the two teams at the bottom of the ladder play in the “Poop Bowl,” as our commissioner so lovingly put it, to determine who is the last-place finisher. The loser of this game gets the punishment.

Here’s last year’s consolation ladder for reference.

Whitney would have been given the punishment last season.

As you can see, Whitney (aka “_ TBD”) would have finished in last place last year. Starting at the bottom of the ladder as the 11 seed, she won her first game, defeating Nick, to move up a spot into the middle of the ladder. That’s good. But in the second round, she lost to Josh, which bumped her back down to the bottom of the ladder and into the Poop Bowl. There she faced Geoff, who defeated her, saddling her with what would have been a last-place punishment had one existed.

The way the ladder works is that it’s technically possible for any team owner that misses the playoffs to finish in last place, even the seven or eight seed if they lose three straight games. But it does give some advantages to the better teams. Teams seeded 7-10 just have to win one of their first two games to avoid the Poop Bowl entirely. The bottom two seeds are not as lucky.

Okay, time for some fun! It’s completely hypothetical, because obviously no one was setting their lineups, but the losers of past Poop Bowls include:

2011: Jackie
2012: Geoff
2013: Adan
2014: Geoff
2015: Geoff
2016: Terryn
2017: Nick
2018: Gray
2019: Beth Ann
2020: Whitney

I was a little surprised to see three hypothetical Poop Bowl championships for Geoff and even one for the all-time wins and points leader, Gray. So fantasy player beware! The Poop Bowl can come for anyone.

So what’s this year’s punishment? We haven’t yet come to a consensus, but Nick—the 2017 hypothetical Poop Bowl champion—penned a submission that seemed to be gaining some traction:

If you have a house, you have to use sidewalk chalk and write “I am the worst Fantasy Football player alive” on the sidewalk outside your house until it naturally goes away. If you live in an apartment, a sign on your door for a week.

The loser must also share photo/video evidence with the league, including any stories of people who have inquired about your public shame. Also, important caveat from Whitney:

***if you live in the same house as another team manager, your name must be displayed on the sign as well.

Good call, Whitney. Let’s be clear who wears the poopy pants in the family.

Draft Preview

Alright, without any further ado, let’s get to it.

To preview the season, we’re breaking down the prospects of every team owner entering this season with a look back at where they’ve been and what their outlook is moving forward. We’ll go in reverse draft order starting with the back of the draft and work our way back to the top. And the best part? We’ve got life updates for each team owner as well to kick it off. Thanks so much to everyone for submitting these. They were fun to read, and I’m sure you’ll all enjoy them as well.

The 12th pick in the 2021 Worst League draft belongs to…

12. Alex

Currently living in Denver! Enjoying the mountains, skiing, still playing basketball, just doing Alex stuff. I have a 10 month old Cockapoo named Vinny. Been dating my girlfriend Kristina going on 10 months now. Currently work as an ad sales manager at KAYAK/OpenTable.

The hits keep on coming for the commish.

Coming off his worst season in four years, Alex is looking to bounce back in 2021, but will have to do it from the back of the draft. Breaking a streak of back-to-back playoff appearances, Alex went 6-7 last year for the fifth losing season of his career. In fact, since his “Thanos” squad set the record for pre-PPR scoring with 114.7 ppg in 2018, it’s been downhill ever since. Alex lost to Samantha in the first round in consecutive seasons, then missed the playoffs entirely in 2020.

But last year wasn’t entirely Alex’s fault. Remember, he won the Mr. Glass Award in 2020 for dealing with a string of injuries. Specifically, he lost his first- and second-round picks Michael Thomas and Austin Ekeler for the majority of the season. Still, he managed to stay in the hunt thanks in large part to James Robinson, the year’s best free agent acquisition, and finished just below .500 in TW%, which tied him for seventh in the final Power Rankings.

This year, he picks 12th in the draft for the first time in league history, joining only five other active team owners. (They are Brandon, Greco, Geoff, Gray and Jess.) This brings Alex’s run of good luck in the draft lottery to a close after four straight years of drafting from the top, including two #1 overall picks in 2019 and 2017. But lest you think there’s something funny going on, Alex is no stranger to late picks, having twice picked 11th. And wouldn’t you know it, those were arguably his two best seasons, finishing as the runner-up in 2012 and winning his only championship in 2015.

And remember, the back of the draft can be a blessing. Just last year Jess torched the league with her WR/WR approach at the turn, drafting Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams, who ended up as the fifth and second overall scorers in fantasy among non-QBs, respectively. Will Alex take a similar approach? Or will the guy who got burned drafting last year’s first WR off the board (Michael Thomas) with the sixth pick decide to go another way?

But as we enter the draft, the thing I’m most interested to see is who Alex drafts at QB. After all, Alex is officially the QB whisperer. For three years in a row now, Alex has somehow managed to draft the eventual QB1. It’s ridiculous. And most impressive, it’s always been a pick in the sixth round or later. In 2018, it was Patrick Mahomes in the 12th round. In 2019, it was Lamar Jackson in the 11th. And last year, he picked Josh Allen in the sixth. The guy doesn’t miss when it comes to QBs. And with so many good QB prospects this year, I’m more curious than ever to see who it’s going to be.

11. Jess

Soooooo (a nod to Greco). I definitely ruined most of the major life updates in WhatsApp last week, but in case you missed it – we’re pregnant! And moving to the Carolina’s. It’s hard writing a life update when the past 18 months have been a whirlwind of canceled plans, grocery delivery, hand sanitizer and A LOT of Netflix. But I think the craziest thing is that so much has still happened, life goes on - right? I spent as much time as I could in Charlotte helping my sister-in-law through chemo treatments (extremely thankful for a remote job + flexibility), my second nephew was born, I got married (maybe I should have started with that). The ceremony wasn’t what we ever envisioned; but we made it work and I’m so glad we did.
After a crazy few years in my career, I’m finally in a place where I’m happy, valued for my unique skillset, and finally have that Master’s degree paying off; a few promotions later and I’m managing a creative team at a Salesforce Consultancy with a boss who advocates for her teams and is one of the best humans I know. I remember talking to Alex and Brandon on #theworst podcast – and had a final interview the next day. This time-of-year is always my favorite because, football, but also because I regularly get to talk to all y’all. The best of the best!
Cheers to our thirties, 5 dollar liquor pitchers, staying healthy, and a MASSIVE amount of RB points.

At least it’s not 12th.

One year after getting the last pick, Jess moves up one spot into the 11th position, which is not a bad place to be considering 11th is one of only two draft positions with multiple championships.

And a championship is definitely something that’s on Jess’ mind given that she’s made the playoffs three years in a row and has not had a losing season since 2013, which is tied with Brandon for the longest active streak of anyone not named Gray. In fact, after a rough first three years, she’s been fourth in TW% (.569), third in scoring (8,785 points), third in wins (55), second in playoff wins (six) and is tied for first in playoff appearances (five) in the seven years since. She also has four career in-the-money (or top-three) finishes, including last year’s third-place finish. Only Greco, Gray and Brandon have more. Whew! That’s some good stuff.

It’s no surprise then that Jess had another terrific season last year. You might recall that she had a wild comeback to end the season that saw her win five of her last six games to finish 9-4, set a single-game record for points (191.82), win two weekly prizes and steal the two seed and a first-round bye from Gray. Unfortunately, she was upset in the semifinals by an equally spectacular late-season push from Greco. After defeating Beth Ann in the consolation game, she finished third.

As I mentioned up top in Alex’s preview, Jess is coming off a season in which she used her backend position in the draft order to target WRs. In our first year of PPR, Jess drafted the eventual WR1 (Davante Adams), WR2 (Tyreek Hill) and WR6 (Justin Jefferson) in the second, first and 11th rounds. It was that trio’s penchant for explosive outings (a record 58.3 ppg from WRs) that led us to dub her team the “Power Glove.” Even by her own lofty standards, it was a great year for Jess, her second-best ever in both wins and TW%, trailing only her 2014 championship season.

Now with another double-digit pick, you have to wonder if Jess will run it back. Because whatever she’s doing, it’s working. And there are several high-end WRs, including Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs whose ADPs (average draft positions) are right around where Jess will be drafting. Hey, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Because Jess has been knocking on the door of a second championship ever since she won her first. And this just might be the year.

10. Josh

Hi, all. Josh here. Chiming in from Seattle. It’s been an eventful summer in our household as we welcomed Oliver to our family. He arrived 3 weeks early and we haven’t slept a wink since! I feel lucky to be on parental leave while Kelly is on summer break so we can learn how to be parents. On the career front, I'm approaching 2 years at Facebook and have been enjoying my time there.
So pumped for football to be back. Here’s to a fun Worst season! 🍻

No one had a more 2020 season in 2020 than Josh.

He became the first team owner to lead the league in points and finish #1 in the final Power Rankings but miss the playoffs, needing just 6.72 more points from Ezekiel Elliott and Gray to knock Greco out of the six seed. Easily the best team by TW% (.650) to ever miss a four- or six-team playoff, Josh set the record for most points in the PPR era with 132.3 ppg but finished with a lackluster 6-7 record.

The third unluckiest team all-time based on the difference between his W% and TW%, Josh’s schedule did him no favors. That includes losing three games when scoring above league average. You might remember we did an analysis where we found that he would have made the playoffs with every other team owner’s schedule except for his and Alex’s. Brutal.

Even still, he had a great team led by Justin Herbert, Darren Waller and a fleet of top-flight RBs. In fact, he led the league in RB scoring with 44.4 ppg behind Alvin Kamara (RB1), Nick Chubb (RB11) and Antonio Gibson (RB13). Had it not been for injuries to Nick Chubb during a crucial stretch midway through the season when Josh went 1-4 (in games with Chubb, he was 5-3), Josh might have been crowned champion.

But that’s all history, and if I know Josh, he’s looking to the future. This guy is HUNGRY for his first championship and currently tops my unofficial list of best team owners never to do it. In the career Power Rankings, he ranks third and is just one one-thousandth of a point behind yours truly in second. Unfortunately, he significantly trails the top two in rings and playoff wins where he is a measly 1-6 in four career appearances.

Despite the bad luck in 2020 and the lack of playoff success, he’s been lights out for awhile now. Notably, he’s coming off his second straight year of finishing #1 in the Power Rankings and is just the third team owner to do it multiple times joining Alex (2012, 2018) and Gray (2011, 2015, 2016). He also leads the league in TW% (.636) and points (5,495) over the last four seasons. No one has been better.

This year, he’ll be drafting 10th, which is a familiar spot for him having drafted in the back third of the draft in three of seven seasons. Most recently, he picked ninth in his runner-up season in 2019, the best of his career by wins and TW%. That year, he went RB/TE at the turn, selecting James Conner and Travis Kelce. Might we see Josh target a TE, specifically Kelce, again? Kelce would have to fall a couple spots, but we know Josh loves TEs as he was the one publicly lobbying to allow for TEs to be played at the flex.

No matter what he does, I’m expecting big things.

9. Geoff

Moved back to Austin this summer seeking greener pastures for my fantasy football team’s performance. What better place than the motherland of The Worst League? Proud Dad to Charlie (4) and Jack (2) and lucky to be married to Marianne! Currently working as a Product Manager at Dealerware (part of Silvercar - thanks Nick!).

Get ready to send the trophy home to Austin y’all - the law of averages are on Average Jeff’s side after a couple of bad years in a row!

“A couple of bad years” might be underselling it. 😬

Geoff has not had a winning season in five years. In fact, Geoff’s 2016 championship season in which he went 8-5 is his only winning season in the last nine years. Yikes.

And yet… he really hasn’t been that bad. If we look at TW%, Geoff has actually had five seasons with a TW% above .500, plus another where he came tantalizingly close. The truth is Geoff’s team has been a lot better than his record would indicate.

Since his championship season, no one has had worse luck than Geoff. And I mean that statistically speaking. In fact, Geoff has lost an average of 1.0 game per season more than you would expect based on his TW% over the last four years. And when you’re “Average Jeff” and constantly hovering around 6-7 or 7-6, that’s the difference between making and missing the playoffs.

Case in point, take a look at last season. In 2020, Geoff lost three games despite finishing in the top half of the league in scoring that week, most in the league. He also won three weekly prizes, tied for the most, and until Week 12, had not won a game unless he won the weekly prize. That’s a high bar to clear just for a win. He was also the only team owner to lose a game to Nick’s historically bad team. That’s rough.

The result was that for the second straight year, he finished in the top half of the final Power Rankings but missed the playoffs at 5-8. He had the eighth-unluckiest team in league history and based on his TW% should have finished 7-6.

To add injury to insult, there were a lot of both. Geoff’s aptly-named Replacements lost third-round pick Odell Beckham while playing without first- and sixth-round picks Miles Sanders and Raheem Mostert for weeks on end (the only two RBs he drafted in the first seven rounds), not to mention promising rookie CeeDee Lamb who fell off the map after Dak Prescott’s injury. Unfortunately for Geoff, the lack of player availability has been a trend. Remember, Geoff also suffered through Le’Veon Bell’s holdout year in 2018, which resulted in a historically bad 3-10 season.

But despite all of the bad luck and the injuries, Geoff is a fighter. When the going gets tough, the tough head to the waiver wire. And there he ranks third all time in scoring from free agency (22% of his career points scored). Only Gray and Brandon average more. But unlike those guys, he’s almost three times more efficient, averaging about 1.3 pickups per week compared to 3.1 for Gray and 3.8 for Brandon. (Yeah, I got stats for everything. 🤓) In other words, no one gets more points per player plucked off the waiver wire than Geoff.

And last year, he broke Brandon’s 2017 record for most points scored from free agency in a single season thanks in large part to Mike Davis, who Geoff grabbed off waivers after Christian McCaffrey’s injury in Week 2. For the season, Geoff averaged 44.1 ppg from free agents. League average was less than half that—21.4 ppg.

Despite a lack of success recently, all that hustle has helped propel Geoff up the career Power Rankings, jumping Erik and Samantha last season into eighth place all time. And I think this is the year it pays off.

Drafting ninth, Geoff is in a great spot. The best spot, actually. Thanks to a bad year for the #1 pick (looking at you, Nick), the ninth pick now has the highest career TW% (.553) of any position in the draft order. And Geoff could use a little good fortune. As the plucky underdog who’s always scratching and clawing his way to just short of the playoffs, Geoff is bound to eventually break through.

In short, I agree with Geoff’s assessment. He’s due.

8. Gray

Hey y’all! Gray here. I’m currently living in my hometown, Shreveport, Louisiana. My wife Jenn and I celebrated our 5 year anniversary this year and our son, Robert, is now 14 months old. I work for the family company, an advertising agency started by my father in 1981, which celebrates its 40th year in business this year! Hope everyone is doing well. And hope you all are ready for some fantasy football!

No one has been more consistently great than Gray.

Despite Brandon’s four championships, Gray still leads the league in almost every other statistical category including regular season wins (82), points (12,824), TW% (.627) and playoff appearances (seven). But his most impressive feat may be the fact that he has not had a losing season in almost nine years. In fact, 2012—a year in which he finished an unfathomable 5-8—was the only losing season of his career. Let us never speak of it again.

But if there’s one thing that can take Gray down, perhaps it’s the eighth pick. If we look at the historical performances of all teams sorted by draft pick, we find that no pick has performed worse than the eighth pick and by a significant margin.

No pick performs worse than the #8 pick.

Unlike Gray, the eighth pick is last in almost every statistical category including regular season wins (56), points (11,181) and TW% (.428) and is tied for 10th in playoff appearances (three). It’s also one of only four positions in the draft (the others being first, second and sixth) to have never won a championship.

In fact, arguably the worst season of Gray’s career was in 2018 when he traded back with Nick to intentionally get the eighth pick. That year, he went 6-6-1 and missed the playoffs with a .409 TW%. To date, that’s still the only season of Gray’s career in which he finished with a TW% below .500. Meanwhile, Nick, who avoided the eighth pick and traded up, had the best season of his career—a 10-win team that earned itself the one seed. Coincidence? I think not.

Which makes me wonder if maybe there’s actually something to it. This is totally anecdotal, but I feel like the eighth pick is a true inflection point in the draft. By the eighth pick, the top tier of RBs have all been drafted and you have to decide whether you’re going to take that first WR, possibly a TE or do you go with a second-tier RB? This year, the three players all going around the eighth pick fit that bill—Davante Adams, Travis Kelce and Ezekiel Elliott.

If faced with that dilemma, I wouldn’t be surprised if Gray went with Kelce. That’s because he’s coming off a year where Kelce (selected late in the second round) was Gray’s most consistent performer. In the first year of PPR scoring, he helped Gray lead the league in receptions with 27.8 per game.

Thanks to those receptions, Gray started last year 8-1, including an impressive six-game win streak. Unfortunately, Gray lost four of his last five, including two consecutive games to Greco—one to end the regular season, which cost him a first-round bye, and the second in the first round of the playoffs, which knocked him out entirely.

This year, if he can weather the curse of the eighth pick, he’ll no doubt be back in the hunt just two years removed from his second career championship. Also, in case he needed any extra motivation, Gray and Brandon are both tied with 90 career wins (including the playoffs). That means they’re both just 10 wins away from becoming the first team owner to get to 100. With an extended regular season that includes 14 games plus another three lingering in the playoffs, each has a shot to do it this year.

Who will get there first?

7. Erik

First big update. I still miss all your faces. Next year can we do an in-person draft? I’m still hanging out in KC and feel like things are going really well. I’m still at VMLY&R working on DICK’s Sporting Goods and Sherwin Williams. I’m sneaking in a little freelance work for the Royals as well. I started dating someone from work during the pandemic that I kept secret until this last March. Then she got fired and we broke up. Just kidding we’re almost a year in and doing great. She’s a copywriter on my team, originally from San Diego and can def beat me at Apex Legends.
Some of you know I started an Airbnb with my business partner Jaclyn last October and that’s going strong. It’s a condo in the plaza here in KC, and just put an offer in on some land for hopefully our second Airbnb (though that one will take a lot longer to come to fruition). I built a fire pit in my backyard and still haven’t used it. Maybe not the best summer project? I finally got back into tennis this year, joining a racquet club and playing in a couple leagues. Josh and Samantha we need to get after it sometime. Lastly, like every year, I’m telling everyone “This is the Cowboy’s year”. Dak show me some love.

Erik is coming off a very successful 2020.

Following what was arguably the worst year of his career, Erik rebounded from 2-11 to go 7-6 and make the playoffs, his first winning season since 2017 and the fifth of his career. Thanks to Derrick Henry, Erik was able to overcome the loss of Dak Prescott and advance to the playoffs for the second time in four years and the third time in his career.

Once there, he played well in defeat. His 143.8 points were the most ever in a playoff loss and the fourth-most in a loss by pre-PPR standards. Unfortunately, he ran into Brandon and Lamar Jackson in what will forever be known as “The Hanukkah Miracle.” Leading by 62.6 points with only Stefon Diggs and Jackson left to play, Erik seemed poised to coast into the second round. But one six-point stat correction and a whole bunch of points later, Erik’s season was over.

This year, he’s hoping to build off the momentum of a successful 2020 and make even more noise throughout the season and hopefully into the playoffs. Currently, Erik hasn’t won a playoff game since 2012, the longest active drought of any team owner with multiple playoff appearances.

A year after drafting eighth, Erik is back at seventh for the second time in three years. With an average draft position of 4.6, Erik has never had to pick in the back third of the draft in 10 seasons. That’s the best luck with the draft randomizer of anyone with at least three years in the league. In fact, he, Beth Ann and Whitney are the only active team owners that have never received a double-digit pick.

Now let’s see if he can translate that good fortune to a good result in the playoffs.

Alright, let’s move into the top half of the draft order, starting with…

6. Samantha

I typically like to keep a low profile given my celebrity status having never won the league -- but if I didn't write this Brandon would. And who knows what he would say... Brandon, Ollie and I are still living in Houston, TX (come visit!). Ollie just turned 10 years old and is thriving here in Houston. Last week I accepted a job to stay here and will be transitioning to faculty at Texas Children’s Hospital/Baylor College of Medicine as a Pediatric Psychologist. I was awarded my first NIH grant to continue doing research evaluating sleep in young adults with type 1 diabetes. I am looking forward to FINALLY finishing my training, working at a great hospital, and staying in TX with warm weather, great food, and close proximity to my family. Otherwise, I have started playing tennis again and miss playing with fellow USTA players Josh and Erik. Finally, Brandon and I will be celebrating our fifth wedding anniversary on September 10th!

Now that’s more like it.

After picking 11th, 10th and then 11th again in her first three years in the league, Samantha will finally be drafting closer to the top. I know she was probably hoping for better, but at least it’s technically the first half of the draft. That being said, her average draft position of 9.5 is still worst in the league.

Typically, Samantha goes with a top-tier WR (coincidentally DeAndre Hopkins for the past two years) and a RB at the turn. But now that she’s got a pick in the middle of the first round, she’ll have more options. And with the sixth pick, she can still choose from her pick of WRs or even pivot to TE with Travis Kelce. But for the first time, she’ll also have the option of going after one of those elite RBs.

Last year, Samantha started out strong at 4-3 behind the dynamic duo of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, not to mention a strong RB corps that ranked in the top half of the league despite the 11th pick. But she soon faded down the stretch, losing five of her last six to finish 5-8 and miss the playoffs, though she remained in contention into the final week of the regular season. The culprits? Injuries to Joe Mixon and David Johnson.

As a result, she missed the playoffs for the first time ever, having previously appeared in back-to-back playoffs to start her career, including one third and one fourth-place finish. After the first losing season of her career, Samantha is no doubt ready to bounce back.

Now she’s finally in a prime position to do that.

5. Greco

Yes, I still work in advertising (Why tho??) Creative Director at 22squared. I have two girls, June who is 3.5 and Emery who is a 9-month-old pandemic baby. Still married to Nick, who you all met during school, we live in Decatur, which is basically Atlanta (if anyone comes in town, holler!!) We have a boat that we never get to use and my only hobby at the moment is day drinking - cuz ain’t nobody got time for that.

Now that’s the Greco we’re used to seeing.

After two straight 3-10 seasons, the only two losing seasons of her entire career, Greco returned to form in 2020. If you didn’t know, you can pretty much book it that Greco will win between 7-9 games every season and likely make the playoffs.

In the playoffs, specifically, she ranks tied for second in appearances (six), third in wins (seven), second in points (2,244) and is tied for third with in-the-money finishes (five). So it shouldn’t be a surprise that last year Greco picked up her third runner-up finish, the most of any team owner.

What was surprising, however, was the way she did it. After weathering injuries to all four of her top-four draft picks and starting a total of nine inactive players throughout the season, Greco found herself at 6-6 and facing Gray in a win-or-go-home Week 13 game. But what followed was one of the most improbable playoff runs in league history. Despite ranking 10th in scoring through the first 12 weeks of the season (113.8 ppg), Greco suddenly poured it on, averaging 144.3 ppg over her next three with the help of some uncharacteristic free agents and trade acquisitions.

Notoriously one of the league’s most set-it-and-forget-it team owners, Greco got 93% of her scoring from players she drafted last season, second-most in the league. And though she didn’t make a lot of moves (only six acquisitions all season), the key moves she did make to pick up Marvin Jones in free agency and acquire Brandon Aiyuk through trade both paid off.

As a result, Greco took down three heavy hitters in consecutive weeks, eliminating Josh, Gray and Jess in Weeks 13, 14 and 15. And she did it while starting only eight active players in the first round of the playoffs. She also became the first six seed to advance to the finals. Though she finally ran out of gas in the championship game, it was an admirable performance that should remind everyone that the playoffs are Greco’s domain.

This year, she’ll be picking in a familiar spot—fifth. Greco has previously had the fifth pick three other times including in 2018, 2017 and 2011. And all three times, she’s declined to pick a RB with her first pick. Most recently, she drafted WRs in 2018 and 2017, which makes me wonder if she’ll be targeting either Davante Adams or Tyreek Hill with her first pick.

Regardless of what she does, you know she’ll be in the mix.

4. Brandon

Since Austin, Samantha and I have bounced around the country from Chicago to Boston and now Houston, where we’ve lived for the last two years. This year, we’re celebrating five years of marriage, but 14 years together (gotta be a league record; will have to check the spreadsheet). Work is great. I’m a creative director at GSD&M, running the Pizza Hut account. While Samantha lollygags around, helping chronically-ill children or whatever, I do the important work of writing jokes about pizza and shooting commercials with Craig Robinson. Also, I created a children’s book in April that you can buy in bookstores to help kids and families who were detained at the border. Go check it out!

🥁 The champ is here! 🥁 The champ is here! 🥁

Three championships in four years. Five straight playoff appearances resulting in five in-the-money finishes. There’s no doubt we’re in the middle of a Bran-dynasty. Yeah, I said it.

Over the last four years, no one has won more games and only Josh has a higher TW% or more points scored over that time. And it’s close. Add in Brandon’s first championship from our inaugural season and you get four rings in 10 years. The only question that’s left is, “Can anyone stop him?”

But just as quickly as empires rise, so too can they fall. Despite last season’s win, Brandon never won a weekly prize, finished fifth in the final Power Rankings, and barely scraped by both Erik and Beth Ann en route to the championship game. Things easily could have gone another way.

This year, he’ll be picking fourth, which is the third straight year that he’s had a top-five pick. Despite that fact, no one—among the eight original team owners—has had worse draft luck than Brandon with an average draft position of 7.1. Unfortunately for the rest of the league, Brandon has done well with top picks, finishing no worse than third and previously winning a championship with the fourth pick in 2011. Gray also won a championship with the fourth pick in 2019.

Ironically though, Brandon doesn’t always nail the first pick. Last year, he blew it selecting Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB22) fifth overall ahead of Dalvin Cook (RB2) and Derrick Henry (RB3). And the last time he had the fourth pick, he drafted Michael Vick. So never count out Brandon to reach for an overhyped player early in the first round.

Or completely jinx himself by naming a dynasty after himself.

3. Beth Ann

I got vaccinated - this feels like an extremely significant highlight that we can all relate to and celebrate. (Remind us to never go through a global pandemic again.) Where's that booster at.
I got engaged to my best friend, Robert Laule (sounds like lollipop). We'll officially be tying the knot next August in Hood River, Oregon at an apple/pear orchard with views of Mt. Hood & Mt. Adams. Very PNW, right?
I just purchased a new Subaru Outback. Did I tell you that I'm really leaning into this PNW life?
I got engaged on a Sunday, and I got a job offer the very next day, a Monday (still at Starbucks). What still feels like a very big, courageous leap of faith, I officially turned away from traditional marketing and joined the Starbucks Global Coffee team, going from "Marketing" to "Sustainability & Ethical Sourcing." I now lead Starbucks Digital Traceability for the entire enterprise and work with Starbucks employees around the world. (Lots of Google searches lately for 'time difference between Seattle and Hong Kong, Colombia, Lausanne, Switzerland' etc.) I think I'm also becoming a coffee aficionado, only time will tell.
Last but not least, Robert and I have spent the past year and a half renovating our entire house all by ourselves. The guest bath reno, the final room, is ALMOST DONE. Truly living out our Chip & Joanna dreams.
Oh gosh, how could I forget... WE'RE GETTING A GOLDEN RETRIEVER PUPPY IN NOVEMBER. We'll be welcoming a little Lucy or Obi (Star Wars nerds) to the fam in just a couple of months.

They don’t call her BA for nothin’.

In a sensational sophomore season, Beth Ann scored 179.08 points in the season opener and never looked back. At 10-3, she finished with the best record in the league (just the seventh team in league history with double-digit wins) and led the league with most weeks spent atop the Power Rankings (tied at six with Josh). She also won two weekly prizes and had one of the most balanced teams in the league—the only team owner to rank in the top half of the league in scoring at QB, RB and WR.

Unfortunately, she came up short in the playoffs, losing to Brandon by just 1.18 points in the semifinals and to Jess in the consolation game. She, Nick and Whitney remain the only team owners without a playoff win. Though she failed to get that first win, she drastically improved her career record and TW%, the latter of which now ranks fifth in the all-time Power Rankings.

After two seasons with Beth Ann, we’re also starting to get a fuller picture of this relative newcomer to the league. One of the consistent themes between her first two seasons in the league is that, like Greco, she does most of her work on draft day. In fact, after two years, she actually leads the league in percentage of points that come from the draft (96%), ahead even of Greco (92%). For reference, league average is 77%.

Take a look at her transactions log and you’ll see why. In two years, she’s made eight moves. Total. In two years! The average team owner makes 21 moves per year. Heck, I’ll probably make eight moves before Week 1. But because she drafts backups at QB and TE, basically the only time Beth Ann is making a move is when her defense and kicker are on bye. Though, she is open to trade as evidenced by the deal that she and I struck at the deadline last season.

Does this approach work? Obviously, it can. Beth Ann had arguably the best team in the league last season. And Greco’s won a championship and appeared in multiple playoff games without stalking the waiver wire. The problem is when your draft doesn’t go as planned, your team is what it is. Remember, two years ago Beth Ann went 4-8-1 after Antonio Brown sabotaged himself and her season.

So what is Beth Ann likely to do in this year’s draft? Luckily for her, this is Beth Ann’s second top-three pick since she joined the league, drafting second then seventh and now third. Two years ago, the avowed Saints fan drafted Alvin Kamara second overall. If he’s still available at three, I’m betting there’s a good chance she drafts him again.

And that could spell trouble for the rest of the league.

2. Whitney

This last year has been full of job changes for Nick and I. COVID left a lot of us in the medical field feeling frustrated and defeated. I did a lot of soul searching and left my job as nurse manager of UVA’s oncology infusion center to get back to my nursing roots and am now working at a private infusion center in Charlottesville. It’s just me, a pharmacist and 6 infusion chairs (very similar to what I did when we were in ATX), and we are open only Wednesday-Friday. Job satisfaction has doubled, to say the least! When I’m not there, I work from home doing chart review for an oncology medical record company (work attire: sweatpants, office: my couch). I couldn’t ask for a better set-up. Nick and I finally got to travel a little this summer and just got back from Colorado a few weeks ago. Excited for this season of FF!

Oof…

Whitney’s debut season in the Worst League ended before it began. In a Week 2 game against the Bears, last season’s second overall pick, Saquon Barkley, suffered a torn ACL and was declared out for the season. That’s tough.

Though she started 2-0, Whitney would lose eight of her next 11 games to finish 5-8 and miss the playoffs. She also finished 11th in wins (five), TW% (.357), points scored (104.0 ppg) and RB scoring (20.0 ppg). With just one season of data, those numbers put her in last place in the all-time Power Rankings.

It’s tough to judge any owner when you’re dealt a hand like that. But as we detailed in the intro to last year’s Week 2 Power Rankings, there are plenty of examples of other team owners who have been hit with similar injuries and managed to respond. Unfortunately, Whitney was not one of them, making just five moves all season. I’m sure it wasn’t the year she wanted, but Whitney deserves credit for gutting it out and keeping her team in the hunt even into the final game of the season.

But as fate would have it, Whitney gets a do-over. That’s because this year she’ll once again be drafting with the second pick—the same pick she had last year. That’s the best luck we’ve seen in a two-year period since Greco got the first and second pick in back-to-back years in 2016-17. Coincidentally, Gray also had the first and second picks in 2015-16. With only two years in the league, Whitney’s average draft position of 2.0 is now easily tops in the league for a career.

Will her good fortune net better results the second time around? Will she reunite with Saquon Barkley? And can she finally bring pride to the long-suffering family name?

Only time will tell.

1. Nick

It all started back in the late summer of 1986. It was a Friday and everyone was looking forward to the weekend. Then, at 6:37 in the morning, the earth was given a gift, and also Nick was born. By the age of 5, he had thrived at competitive sports and grilled cheese sandwiches. It was clear that he had to make a choice. The cheese won. While his dreams of becoming a football legend spiraled downward quicker than a bud light in a beer bong, his only hope was fantasy football.
He moved out of the big city to settle down in a quiet town called Charlottesville, Va where he knew he could focus on digital only sports. He was also not so successful at this. His wife Whitney joined the same league and gave him emotional support but it was not enough. Soon he had to get another job so he joined the family business, payroll, which his father started in case he could not make it as a fantasy football maestro. This was good planning on his part because to date Nick has lost his life’s savings to FF entrance fees. But he remembers that it takes money to make money, and this year will be different. This year Nick has learned from his mistakes of the past. This year, he will not be last. This year, he might even be top 6. To be continued...

Well, well, well… look who we have here.

Speaking of deja vu, Nick is back with the first overall pick for the second year in a row. What are the chances of Nick and Whitney repeating as the first and second picks? Just 1 in 144 or 0.69%. Those are some long odds.

Nick, in particular, has had unprecedented luck with the draft randomizer. This is now his fourth #1 pick in 11 seasons. Four! The only other team owner with multiple #1 picks is Alex (two). Meanwhile, active team owners who have never had the #1 pick include Beth Ann, Brandon, Jess, Josh, Samantha and Whitney.

Of course, the #1 pick doesn’t always work out. Just ask Nick. Last year, he drafted Christian McCaffrey, who was limited to just three games in an injury-plagued season that included a high-ankle sprain in Week 2 followed by a shoulder and quadriceps injury when he tried to return in Week 9.

The results for Nick were disastrous. Playfully gunning for the title of the Worst’s worst, Nick achieved his goal, reclaiming the throne from Geoff whose 2018 squad was formerly the worst team of all time. With a true record of 29-114, Nick finished with the worst TW% (.203) in league history. Not only that, but he was also the first team owner to go 1-12 in a season with his only win coming against Geoff in Week 7.

It’s no secret that Nick is here for a good time. In 10 years, he has just two winning seasons, including five seasons with four or fewer wins. If we set Whitney aside because she has just one season in the league, Nick ranks last in TW% (.421) and scoring average (84.7 ppg) and has only appeared in the playoffs once with zero wins. And like Greco, Beth Ann and Whitney, I would characterize his activity as set-it-and-forget-it, averaging fewer than six moves per season.

But that doesn’t mean he can’t be dangerous. Just three years ago, Nick went 10-3 and earned the one seed in the playoffs. Two years before that, he was 7-6 and would have made a six-team playoff had one existed. Both times, he picked in the top half of the draft. And every year we’ve had a new worst-ever season (Erik in 2011, Nick in 2017 and Geoff in 2018), that team owner has rebounded with a playoff-worthy, top-five finish in the final Power Rankings the next year. That bodes well for Nick in 2021.

This year, Nick finds himself in the unusual position of being able to draft the same player who de-railed his previous season. In fact, Christian McCaffrey currently has the highest ADP, which indicates he’s the most common #1 pick in ESPN drafts this year. I would expect Nick will draft him as well. But will he be influenced by the season he just had—the worst in Worst League history?

Plus, the stakes are higher this year. With a last-place punishment, you can’t afford to punt on the season as in previous years. That just might mean this year is shaping up to be the most competitive yet.

Good Luck to Everyone This Year

Well, that about wraps up it up for an extra-long 2021 season preview. I hope you enjoyed it, and I hope it got you as pumped for the season as I am. I also want to say thanks to everyone for sending in those life updates for this year’s preview. That was an extra-special treat.

Oh, yeah. And the answer to the question of the 11 players that have been drafted in every single draft in Worst League history are: