2020 Playoff Preview
Alright, the playoffs are set.
Alex and I did not end up getting around to a podcast this week, but I didn’t want to leave you without any sort of preview. Going to try and limit myself to the highlights this week since I’ve already got over 6,000 words dedicated to the regular season recap. If you haven’t read that, check that out first. Then come back here.
Because we covered all the regular season shenanigans there, including how Josh’s team became the first team to ever lead the final Power Rankings but miss the playoffs, we’ll stick to just the six teams that did make the playoffs.
So without further ado, let’s get to it. Here is this year’s bracket.
In the first round, Brandon will face Erik and Gray will take on Greco in a rematch of Week 13.
As we do during the regular season, I’ve dropped these six teams into the computer and simulated the playoffs 10,000 times using their TW%. This is the result with the probability of each team advancing throughout the playoffs.
Beth Ann is a slight favorite to win her first championship with a 29% chance.
So let’s break down this year’s contenders one team at a time, starting with the long shots and moving toward the favorites.
6. Greco: 5.3%
This is Greco’s 6th playoff appearance but her first in quite a while after two straight 3-10 seasons. A former league champion (2012), Greco has not made the playoffs since 2017. But this year, despite an early season-ending injury to fourth-round pick Courtland Sutton, plus lingering injuries for Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay, Greco has found her way back to the promised land.
With the ninth pick in the draft, Greco spent three of her first four picks on WRs. But ironically, that’s not the strength of her team. In fact, Greco is one of the few team owners that routinely started three RBs this season. Often those guys were Josh Jacobs, Melvin Gordon, and David Montgomery but sometimes Nyheim Hines. Together, that group helped Greco register the second-most points from RBs this season (40.8 ppg), trailing only Josh who she beat out for the sixth and final playoff spot.
She also got great production at QB with Aaron Rodgers, a shrewd seventh-round selection and the 10th QB taken who finished the regular season as QB5. At TE, Hunter Henry has been solid (TE7). And she’s been successful without having to stream kickers or defenses by relying on the Indy duo of Rodrigo Blankenship and the Colts D/ST, which has helped her to the 3rd-best scores at both positions. Notoriously one of the league’s most set-it-and-forget-it team owners, Greco got 93% of her scoring from players she drafted this season, second-most in the league.
Shortly after the draft, Greco started the season hot, jumping out to a 3-1 record while averaging 128.39 ppg. She then cooled, losing three straight to drop to 3-4 before rallying to win four of her last six. That set up the dramatic win over Gray in Week 13 to clinch the 6 seed. And though she doesn’t make a lot of moves, the key moves she did make to pick up Marvin Jones in free agency and acquire Brandon Aiyuk through trade both paid off. And with Golladay and now Julio Jones set to miss Week 14, she’ll need both to come through yet again.
In a twist of fate, Greco will face off against Gray in a rematch of last week’s game. In fact, this is the third time these two team owners have met, splitting their season series with the total score from their previous two games separated by a combined 10.66 points.
I expect a close one again. On the one hand, Greco will be playing without Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay. But she should have Josh Jacobs back. Assuming she takes Jones out of her lineup (big “if” considering Greco has been known to start an inactive player or two this season), she’ll have the triumvirate of Josh Jacobs, David Montgomery and Nyheim Hines plus Marvin Jones and Brandon Aiyuk to form the core of her team.
Though she’s the longest shot to win it all, doubt her at your own peril. Greco has three games of 140+ points, which is more than Jess, Gray or Brandon, and two weekly prizes, which is just as many if not more than any of the other playoff teams. In short, Greco can put up points. But can this ground game keep up in a PPR world?
Greco is 6-9 against Gray for her career, including two playoff losses in 2013 and 2016. She’ll hope to reverse that trend this week. The computer gives her a 38% chance to beat Gray and a 5.0% chance of taking home her second championship.
5. Erik: 7.3%
Now that’s how you bounce back.
One year after drafting 4 QBs en route to a disastrous 2-11 season (tied for the worst record until Nick went 1-12 this year), Erik finds himself back in the playoffs for just the third time in his career and the first time since 2017. Like Greco, that was also Erik’s last winning season.
With the eighth pick in the draft, Erik selected Derrick Henry (RB3), one of the few first-round RBs to deliver on preseason expectations. But unlike Greco, the strength of his team has been WR where Erik has gotten great production out of Allen Robinson (WR11), Chris Godwin (when healthy he’s WR19 in ppg) and Robby Anderson (WR18)—an excellent 11th-round pick who has cooled lately but far exceeded expectations.
The biggest obstacle to Erik’s success this season, and perhaps his happiness in real life football, was the injury to Dak Prescott. Prior to the injury in Week 5, Prescott was averaging a ridiculous 30.55 ppg in four full games played. It’s unfair to assess how good Erik’s team could have been without first considering the difference between a possible MVP season for Prescott and fantasy fill-ins like Carson Wentz (QB18) and Kirk Cousins (QB13).
After locking up a playoff spot in Week 12, Erik enters the playoffs on a bit of a down note, scoring just 85.4 points in Week 13, nearly a season low. In fact, Erik’s team has been ninth-worst in the league by TW% over the last six weeks while averaging just 105.7 ppg, which would be even worse if he hadn’t scored 156.2 points in Week 12.
But there is a bright spot. Before his concussion, D’Andre Swift appeared to be breaking out for the Detroit Lions. Now he’s back just in time for the playoffs, which means Erik will have the better duo at RB to go against Brandon. Plus, the last time these two met, Erik defeated Brandon 138.88-106.98.
Erik is 4-7 against Brandon for his career, including a loss in the 2017 playoffs. The computer gives him a 40% chance to beat Brandon this week and a 7.3% chance to win the whole thing. To do it, he’ll need to win three straight games, something which he has not been able to do so far this season. But like with his potential championship, there’s always a first time for everything.
4. Brandon: 14.4%
The three-time former champion is now riding a league-leading five-year playoff streak, which dates back to 2016.
Aside from Aaron Jones (RB5) in the second round, Brandon’s first few picks in the draft were a little fraught. He reached on Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB13) at five, drafting him ahead of Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry, then took Lamar Jackson (QB10) with the fifth pick in the third round. But his saving grace has been at WR where despite waiting the second-longest of any team owner to select his first WR has been elite at the position (44.2 ppg), trailing only the Power Glove among playoff teams in points from WRs. That’s three of his next four picks, which includes A.J. Brown (WR12 in ppg), DK Metcalf (WR3) and Stefon Diggs (WR5). Essentially, that’s three WR1s on the same team. Only Jess can match that firepower.
While most of this year’s playoff teams started out 3-1, Brandon had the biggest hole to dig out of, beginning the season with a 1-3 record. But once he figured out which WRs to start, he won seven of his next eight games to clinch a playoff spot by Week 12. Over the course of the season, he’s been one of the more consistent team owners with scores between 106.26 and 142.06 points. The highs are not nearly as high as some of the other teams in the playoffs. He’s never won a weekly prize. But there haven’t been any lows either.
The one quirky exception, of course, is Week 13 in which Brandon scored just 80.9 points. But as was mentioned in the Week 13 Power Rankings, that’s because Brandon threw the game by benching three players in order to avoid a potential 3 vs. 6 matchup with the #1 team in the Power Rankings, Josh. Had he started Lamar Jackson, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Stefon Diggs, Brandon would have finished the season second in the final Power Rankings and third in points, but ironically still would have gotten the 4 seed. So in the end, nothing really changed, but it does superficially lower his esteem in the eyes of the computer. (Do computers have eyes?)
In his matchup with Erik, his opponent will have the upper hand at RB. But Brandon should have the advantage, if slight, at every other position. That includes TE where Brandon acquired T.J. Hockenson (TE3) in one of four trades he made this season. In fact, Brandon is starting six top-5 players at their position this week, if you include the Saints D/ST and Younghoe Koo.
Brandon is 7-4 against Erik for his career and beat him in the first round the last time these two matched up in the playoffs in 2017. If he can advance to the semifinals, Brandon would be a slight underdog to Beth Ann. The computer gives him a 14% chance of taking home his fourth championship and third in four years.
3. Gray: 15.3%
I’ll be honest, I don’t quite know what to make of Gray’s team. He’s said about as much on the group chat at various points throughout the year. And I’ll tell you why:
While Greco, Erik and Brandon’s teams have all had a clear identity, Gray’s has shifted throughout the season. For weeks, it seemed like Gray’s identity would be RB. He selected Ezekiel Elliott with the third overall pick and then spent a third-round pick on James Conner. But those two have disappointed in recent weeks. In fact, Gray is actually getting below-average scoring from RBs this season, which is unusual for him.
I think Gray probably realized this too, which is why he traded for Raheem Mostert. In fact, I think his plan in the playoffs may have been to sit one if not both of his highly drafted RBs in favor of Mostert and free agent acquisition Myles Gaskin. Unfortunately, Gaskin just tested positive for COVID-19 and it seems the 49ers might be acting more cautious than expected with Mostert upon his return from an injury.
So that leaves WR, where Gray has had tremendous depth throughout the season, but no singular talent. It’s all guys who’ve been solid including Robert Woods (WR9), Tyler Boyd (WR17), Jamison Crowder (WR23 in ppg), Jakobi Meyers and briefly Antonio Brown. But without Joe Burrow, one of his best WRs, Boyd, has been diminished. And it’s gotten to the point that Gray may be starting T.Y. Hilton (WR51) at WR2 this week, who was on waivers as recently as Wednesday.
The reality is that there’s been one name that has differentiated Gray from the pack this season—Travis Kelce. Taken in the back half of the second round, Kelce has been head and shoulders above all other TEs with the possible exception of Darren Waller who can at least hang out in the same zip code. Gray easily leads all team owners in TE scoring with 18.9 ppg. And it’s Kelce that is probably the biggest reason that, in the first year of PPR scoring, Gray leads the league in receptions with 27.8 per game. How great has Kelce been? The only RBs or WRs with more points than Kelce are Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. That’s it.
So with solid but not spectacular production across the board, which includes Taysom Hill at QB (a position Gray has spent most of the season streaming), Gray has flown mostly under the radar this season, stringing together wins and planning for the playoffs.
But one thing he wasn’t planning for was to be playing in Week 14. After starting 8-1, Gray lost three of his last four games and was miraculously caught by Jess for the division lead. That means he suddenly has to play a dangerous Greco. And since Week 10, Gray actually ranks behind Greco in TW%. Their total points scored over the last four weeks are separated by just 0.38 points.
This game really could go either way. Gray has the advantage of injuries to Julio Jones and Kenny Golladay, but he will now be without Myles Gaskin. He is 9-6 against Greco for his career, but she always seems to get him in the games that matter.
This is Gray’s league-leading seventh playoff appearance, which means he’s only missed the playoffs three times in 10 years. If he can defeat Greco, he faces a difficult matchup with Jess. (“Voodoo!” as he says.) The computer gives him a 62% chance of beating Greco and a 15.3% chance of defending his crown and taking home his third championship.
2. Jess: 28.3%
The Power Glove!
I talked about Jess’ team a lot in the Week 12 Power Rankings. Hers definitely has an identity that JT (our now-departed, WR-obsessed team owner) would be proud of. And in a year with PPR scoring, it’s paying dividends.
Saddled with the 12th pick in the draft, Jess decided that rather than selecting the 10th-best RB, she’d spend both of her picks on top-flight WRs instead. With Michael Thomas and Julio Jones already drafted, that left Tyreek Hill (WR1) and Davante Adams (WR2). Not only have they been the best two WRs in the league, but they lead the next-closest guy by 36 points. Add in Justin Jefferson who we identified in the regular season recap as the best pick in the draft (WR7 at pick 132) and you’ve got the league’s most potent WR trio. Obviously, she leads all teams in WR scoring (58.3 ppg) and is nearly 20 ppg above the league average.
Of course, everything in life comes at a cost. And for all of Jess’ greatness at WR, things are looking really bleak at RB (just 21.4 ppg) where she ranks barely ahead of Whitney and Nick who both had devastating injuries to the position. If Todd Gurley (RB17) can return to his normal role following some load management, she’ll be relying on both him and Devin Singletary (RB30). They’re not great. But they may not have to be.
Case in point, Jess has the hottest team entering the playoffs over the last six weeks and is averaging a ridiculous 157.7 ppg over the last three. She’s also tied for the most weekly prizes among the playoff teams with two and won her two prizes more recently than either Beth Ann or Greco. With Deshaun Watson (QB6) playing some of his best football of the season and Mark Andrews (TE5) hopefully returning from the reserve/COVID-19 list, this team is arguably the favorite to win it all.
This is Jess’ fifth playoff appearance and third in a row, which means she has the second-longest active streak behind Brandon. Jess will have a bye into the second round where the computer gives her a 55% chance to advance to the finals and a 28.3% chance to win her second championship.
1. Beth Ann: 29.4%
Now there’s the Beth Ann we all thought we were getting. One year after Antonio Brown sabotaged her season, Beth Ann is back with the only team that has truly been able to contend with Josh for supremacy from wire to wire this season.
Starting the season with 179.08 points in her first game, Beth Ann never looked back, leading the Power Rankings for six of 13 weeks this season, tied with Josh for most in the league. From Weeks 1-6, her team was dominant with a TW% of .697 while averaging 143.5 ppg, especially while Russell Wilson was cooking. She finished the regular season with a 10-3 record, just the fifth team owner to achieve double-digit wins joining Gray (twice), Jess, Josh, Brandon and Nick.
In terms of construction, this team would have been even better last year with pre-PPR scoring. In fact, Beth Ann would have led the league in scoring (ahead of Josh) with 101.8 ppg, which would have ranked sixth-most all time. In part, that’s because Beth Ann actually averaged only 21.8 receptions, which was below league average. But in my mind, that only goes to show how impressive her team has been in spite of that structural disadvantage.
The stats show that Beth Ann has one of the most balanced teams in the league, which is saying something considering she drafted Dalvin Cook (RB2). In addition to Cook, she has Ronald Jones (RB12) and Kenyan Drake (RB15) plus two top-12 WRs in Adam Thielen (WR10) and Calvin Ridley (WR12). And with Odell Beckham out for the year, Jarvis Landry has been excellent in recent weeks averaging 24.4 ppg over his last two. Finally, despite Russell Wilson’s recent struggles, she also leads all playoff teams in scoring at QB with 24.3 ppg. The only real weakness I see is Hayden Hurst at TE, but even he has been okay from week to week.
There hasn’t been a lot of tinkering with this team. She actually leads the league in percentage of points that come from the draft (96.7%), ahead even of Greco. But why would you need to tinker when your team is 10-3?
The one cause for concern? Beth Ann has quietly cooled off in recent weeks. In the second half of the regular season starting in Week 7, Beth Ann has been barely above .500 in TW% and ranked sixth over that time behind Jess, Gray and Brandon. She’s also averaged just 115.0 ppg since Week 7 (which ranks seventh) and hasn’t scored more than 129 points since Week 6. All it takes is one hot day and anyone could beat her.
This is Beth Ann’s first playoff appearance in just her second year in the league. She’ll have a bye for Week 14 and will meet the winner of Brandon and Erik in the semifinals. The computer gives her a 55% chance of advancing to the finals and a league-leading 29.4% chance of winning it all, which makes her the favorite.
I have to say this year’s playoff teams seem extremely balanced. In 2019, Josh was the favorite at 41% and in 2018 it was Alex with 38%. Obviously, neither of those team owners won. So if they were bigger favorites than Beth Ann, then we can expect some chaos this year too.
Coincidentally, each of the last two years that I’ve run simulations for the playoffs, the team with the second-best odds has won. This year’s, that’s Jess. If Alex and I had done a pod for this preview, hers would have been the team I would have picked to win it all.
But it really is anyone’s game. I could realistically see any one of these six teams winning it all. Remember, there was very little separating these teams in the final Power Rankings, especially the top four here in the playoffs.
With only three weeks left to go, we are so close to the end. Mercifully, 2020 is almost over. And at least one team owner will be able to go out on top. The only question that’s left to answer is who is it going to be.
