Week 8 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Tuesday night, watching the election results roll in, I felt something eerily familiar.

It wasn’t just the feeling of dread and uncertainty that I felt back in 2016, but pretty much the same way I feel every Sunday while watching football, which is to say—at times hopeful, at times pessimistic, always on the edge of my seat and perpetually glued to the shifting numbers on the screen.

Yes, watching the election is a lot like tracking your fantasy football team. You start the day proudly casting your vote for the best possible roster. And then, you watch and wait. Based on the early projections, with Mike Clay as your own personal Nate Silver, you feel pretty good. But then the games play out, and the first results start to roll in.

Wait… shouldn’t we be further ahead at RB1? You really thought you had a chance to win that position given the matchup, but suddenly Dalvin Cook is running roughshod through your electoral map like he’s Miami-Dade County. This one’s going to be close.

By Sunday night, you’re trailing at all the major swing positions—flex, TE, even kicker, which is extremely embarrassing considering you haven’t lost that position since the Clinton years. I mean, you drafted Justin Tucker for chrissakes. What is happening, you think? And the worst part, you’re completely powerless to stop it. That’s when the doubts creep in. I knew we should have invested in a stronger ground game during the draft. What was I thinking with all those WRs?!

Meanwhile, blowhards like Alex are on the group chat proclaiming this one is over. “STOP THE COUNT,” he says with his team leading by a handful of points while simultaneously demanding a stat correction for your defense at a completely different position. It’s pure madness and it’s clear he’ll do anything to win.

But then, it happens—Monday Night Football. You still have hope. These box scores aren’t counted at the same time as the rest of ’em. Now the tables have turned, and you have a decisive advantage with DK Metcalf in your WR slot. And it doesn’t take long after the game starts for him to start tallying up those fantasy points like mail-in ballots in Philadelphia. Suddenly, it begins to feel inevitable. Your opponent, like Budda Baker, looks over his shoulder to see your team is charging hard. Uh oh…

That feeling when the mail-in ballots kick in.

It looks like this one is going to come down to the wire. You’re on the edge of your seat, your fingers doomscrolling the fantasy football app while John King expertly maneuvers the touchscreen like he’s John Madden on the telestrator. Holy Herbert, this thing could come down to a decimal point.

And the winner is…

Fortunately, unlike with the election, the stakes in fantasy football are much, much lower. In a week that has felt like a month, fantasy football can yet again be a great distraction. It’s a chance to let your blood pressure return to normal. To ponder silly trade requests. And even make waiver wire claims in the wee hours of election night just like Geoff, Beth Ann, Gray and I all did. By the way, I think there’s something seriously wrong with all of us.

God willing, our country will survive the week, and so too may your fantasy football team.

The Scoreboard

This was the lowest-scoring week this season with teams averaging 107.8 ppg (81.3 pre-PPR).

Week 8 was a low-scoring affair overall.

With teams averaging 107.8 ppg, this was the lowest-scoring week by far in the PPR era with nearly half the league failing to top even 85 points. If we adjust to last year’s scoring settings, teams would have averaged just 81.3 points pre-PPR with four teams scoring fewer than 65 points. By historical standards, Week 8 would have ranked 105th out of 121 weeks.

But don’t count Geoff among the underperformers. He won his third weekly prize of the year, tying Josh for the most this season. And yet, his team is still just 3-5 and fighting to remain in the playoff hunt, which begs the question—does this third weekly prize portend Geoff will make the playoffs?

Well, we’ve only been doing weekly prizes for four years now. But I went back through the data and looked at how many times each team would have won a weekly prize by leading the league in scoring. Turns out that 14 teams have led the week in scoring at least three times in a given season. Of those 14 teams, 13 made the playoffs, which includes 11 who finished in the money and five champions. That’s a pretty good sign.

But the one who missed? Nick in 2012 who would have won four weekly prizes that season, finished fifth in the final Power Rankings and yet missed the playoffs with a 5-8 record. With five weeks left in the regular season, Geoff has a lot of work to do if he wants to avoid a similar fate.

As for the game itself, Geoff defeated Samantha 160.04-85.0 behind 36.64 points from Patrick Mahomes. But it wasn’t just the reigning Super Bowl MVP that got the job done, Geoff was absolutely masterful in plucking productive players off the scrap heap and inserting them into his lineup. Playing without Miles Sanders and Raheem Mostert plus CeeDee Lamb’s recent struggles with the QB situation in Dallas, Geoff called upon Giovani Bernard, DeeJay Dallas and Corey Davis—free agent acquisitions who all topped 20 points. Geoff now leads all team owners in FA scoring with the exceptions of Josh (Justin Herbert) and Alex (James Robinson). Meanwhile, it was as predicted for Samantha who struggled without her dynamic duo of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, not to mention Joe Mixon who missed a second game to injury.

For the rest of the games, I’m going to do what I did last week and just provide the highlights. If someone really misses these game recaps, let me know and I can add them back in. But I’d rather use my time to focus on the more fun analysis that can be found in the Power Rankings and Playoff Picture.

In the most consequential matchup this week, Jess narrowly defeated Josh behind 56.1 points from Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill, giving her the inside track on the playoffs and showing why she continues to be Josh’s kryptonite. Gray advanced to 7-1 with a season-high 28.4 points from Robert Woods as Erik cooled, scoring his fewest points this season. Beth Ann kept pace atop the Leaders Division, running her record to 6-2 thanks to 48.6 points (46 pre-PPR) from Dalvin Cook, the second-most this year and second-most all time by pre-PPR standards. Meanwhile, it’s a dispiriting 50-point loss for Alex who continues to labor through an injury-plagued season. Brandon easily defeated Whitney thanks to 40.1 points from DK Metcalf. And finally, Greco halted Nick’s win streak at one game as both team owners lost key players in Kenny Golladay and George Kittle.

Power Rankings

After eight weeks, the official standings would have you believe the league’s two top dogs are Gray (7-1) in the Legends Division and Beth Ann (6-2) in the Leaders Division. But of course, we’re sophisticated fantasy football players. So we know the standings can be misleading.

The truth lies in TW%, which tells a different story. In fact, the league’s top dogs remain Beth Ann and Josh, not Gray. Despite his loss this week to Jess, which dropped him to 3-5 on the season, Josh continues to rank among the league’s elite in TW% (.625) and scoring (136.9 ppg). Though it is important to note that Josh was passed this week for the scoring lead by Beth Ann (138.1 ppg), who now leads the league in scoring by just 9.92 total points. As a result, if the season were to end today, Beth Ann would be named champion.

Also notable is the fact that both Beth Ann and Josh are the only two teams averaging more than 130.0 ppg. Put in historical context, they’re also the only two teams averaging more than 100.0 ppg pre-PPR. Remember, just eight teams in league history have accomplished that feat and all made the playoffs with six finishing in the money and one former champion.

Speaking of pre-PPR, while Beth Ann and Josh are separated by just a handful of points, Beth Ann would have a much wider margin if this were pre-PPR. Her 111.6 ppg pre-PPR would rank ahead of all former teams with the sole exception of Alex’s Thanos team. By comparison, Josh is averaging just 101.4 ppg pre-PPR, which just goes to show how much Josh has taken advantage of the new scoring settings. In fact, he leads all team owners with an average of 30.9 receptions per game, which is driven not just by his WRs, but also by Alvin Kamara and Darren Waller. The league average for receptions is 23.7 per game with next-closest team owner being Gray, who is averaging 27.8 receptions per game.

As for the rest of the league, Samantha holds firm in third despite the loss. Brandon and Gray both move up one spot into third and fifth, respectively. They are joined by Geoff who jumps two spots. After two weeks with the second-fewest and fewest points in the league, Geoff’s explosive Week 8 propels him back up into the top half of the Power Rankings. Now with a TW% of .545, he ranks sixth behind Beth Ann, Josh, Brandon, Samantha and Gray.

Meanwhile, the bottom half of the Power Rankings features several competitive 3-5 and 4-4 teams. Erik, Jess and Alex all fell one spot, while Greco gained ground.

Finally, Whitney and Nick bring up the rear with Nick dropping to 1-7 on the season. By TW%, his team currently ranks within the bottom-10 of all teams, though we might expect his performance to improve if the return of Christian McCaffrey can offset the loss of George Kittle. In other words, I don’t think Nick is in too much danger of breaking any records here, though we’ve never had a team fail to get at least two wins.

Playoff Picture

I’ve given Jess a lot of grief in these recaps. Remember when we first debuted the Playoff Picture back in Week 4, she was 10th in the Power Rankings, last in scoring and had just a 23% chance of making the playoffs.

But four weeks later, she is now projected to make the playoffs for the first time this season with a 63% chance. Key in her quest to return to the playoffs for the third consecutive year has been the return of Davante Adams. Since Adams returned to the lineup following an injury and his Week 5 bye, Jess has a .667 TW% while averaging 124.3 ppg, which ranks third and fourth respectively over the last three weeks.

Meanwhile, booted from the ranks of projected playoff teams, Samantha finds herself on the outside looking in for the first time since we released the Playoff Picture in Week 4. Still, she’s actually more likely to make the playoffs than not with a 54% chance. In fact, several team owners are bunched together. Jess, Erik, Josh, Samantha and Geoff all have between a 42-63% chance.

That’s the big picture this week. Here are three other questions I’m wondering.

What are the chances Gray runs the table?

Gray is now 7-1. He’s not the best team in the Power Rankings, but he is in the top-5. And given his record, he has a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs with a 96% chance of winning the division and claiming a coveted first-round bye.

But what are the chances he runs the table and finishes 12-1? Remember, no team has ever won 12 regular season games. Gray holds the current record having finished 11-2 in 2016.

Well, based on 10,000 simulations, Gray has a 2.78% chance of finishing 12-1. Not probable, but not bad considering he’d have to win five straight games to do it. Working against him is the fact that he has the second-toughest remaining schedule with games against Josh, Brandon and Beth Ann—all three top-3 teams in the Power Rankings, not counting Samantha who is also tied for third. Still, the computer gives him a 49.9% chance to finish with double-digit wins.

And maybe this is the more interesting thing to note—if he never wins another game and finishes 7-6, the computer says he would still make the playoffs an astounding 88.9% of the time. That of course assumes he maintains his points lead over the likely teams against which he’d be competing for a sixth and final playoff spot like Samantha, Erik, Jess and Greco.

Could Josh really miss the playoffs?

Besides Beth Ann, Josh is the only other team owner to spend time atop the Power Rankings this season. He’s second in TW%, second in points and is tied for the most weekly prizes this season with three. Josh is also the only team owner getting at least 40.0 ppg from both RBs and WRs and ranks second in TE scoring only to Gray who has Travis Kelce.

And yet… he really could miss the playoffs.

Last week, we talked a lot about his bad luck. But once again, he lost after a below-average scoring week where he was deserving of losing. According to the computer, he and Samantha are now neck-and-neck for that final playoff spot and both she and Greco are now one game ahead of Josh in the standings with five games to go.

Working in Josh’s favor are a few things. First of all, he has a good team. As indicated by all the metrics above, Josh should be favored in every game he has left to play this season. Second, his schedule is relatively easy. It’s the third-easiest schedule remaining with games against Alex, Whitney and Nick—the three teams at the bottom of the Power Rankings. Third, he has the points lead by a wide margin. Not counting Beth Ann who should make the playoffs comfortably, he has an 84.84-point margin between himself and the next-closest team owner. With five games to go, teams would need to make up about 17 ppg on him to close the gap.

And the fourth and final reason I still like his chances, perhaps more than the computer does, is Nick Chubb. In fact, we might see the former second-round pick as soon as he returns from his bye in Week 10. Combine Chubb with Kamara, a WR corps that includes Amari Cooper, Tyler Lockett and Travis Fulgham, Darren Waller (TE2) and, oh yeah… Justin Herbert, who has been a revelation, and you have a really dangerous playoff team, even if it winds up being a 6-seed.

But that’s the question. Can he pull it out? This week’s game with Gray will be crucial. And Nick will suddenly have Christian McCaffrey back in Week 10. Samantha is no slouch in Week 11. And maybe Alex finally has both Michael Thomas and Austin Ekeler back in Week 12. It’s not exactly a walk in the park. So you know I’ll be tracking this storyline with interest.

The most common outcome for Josh in all the simulations was that he finished 7-6, which happened 35.1% of the time. That would mean he wins four of his last five games. But the second-most common outcome is 6-7 (33.3%) where he wins three. Whether it’s one or the other will probably determine whether or not he makes it.

Can Christian McCaffrey help Nick stage the most epic comeback in league history?

It’s been a tough season for Nick. At 1-7, he’s now facing some really long odds. I’ll be honest. Though it’s technically possible for him to make the playoffs, his team did not do it once in 10,000 simulations. That’s why he’s listed with a “<1%” chance in the Playoff Picture.

But that doesn’t mean it’s not possible. Yes, it sucks big time that George Kittle will now be out for the rest of the season. But if anyone can stage the most dramatic comeback in league history, it’s Christian McCaffrey—the top overall pick in this year’s draft.

Right now, the computer is underrating Nick’s chances because it’s not accounting for the return of McCaffrey. So I wondered, “What if we could approximate his return by juicing his TW% in the simulations?”

So that’s what I did. I replaced Nick’s team in the computer with the best team of all time—Gray’s 11-2 team from 2016 that finished with a league-record TW% of .808. I also gave him the points lead in case of a tiebreaker. Then I let the computer run its magic and…

Nick made the playoffs 13.4% of the time! That’s actually pretty high. I was surprised. There were 12 instances in which he made the playoffs at 5-8, but for the most part, he only made the playoffs when he won all five of his remaining games to finish 6-7. On the strength of Gray’s GOAT squad, he was able to do that 21.6% of the time with two-thirds of those finishes being just good enough to make it based on how the other team owners performed.

In other words, Nick can still make the playoffs. If McCaffrey can transform his team into a Gray-like behemoth, and if he can win every game from here on out, he’s got a shot. It would certainly be the most dramatic comeback ever.

All that’s left to do is to do it.

Looking Ahead to Week 9

Not gonna do a full rundown this week. So let me just hit the highlights.

So many great matchups this week between evenly matched teams. We have two 5-3 teams facing off in Brandon and Jess who are currently projected to make the playoffs, two 4-4 teams in Samantha and Greco fighting to get back in the playoff picture, and two 3-5 teams in Geoff and Alex desperately hoping to hold on.

But I’m really intrigued by the matchup between Gray (7-1) and Josh (3-5). Josh definitely needs this one more than Gray to stay in the playoff hunt. The biggest wildcard may be the debut of Antonio Brown for the Buccaneers. Will it be enough to compensate for an injury to Myles Gaskin plus byes for Robert Woods and Tyler Boyd? Or will Josh be the one who’s missing a WR in Travis Fulgham (on bye) as the league leader in receptions appears as if he might start three RBs. Oh yeah, and it’s also a matchup of last year’s championship game in which Gray upset Josh to take home the crown.

Finally, in a matchup with Whitney, Beth Ann looks to put some distance between herself and Brandon in the race for the Leaders Division. And lastly, Nick should get Christian McCaffrey back as he faces off against Erik.

That’s it for this week.

God bless your team. And may God bless fantasy football.