Breaking Down the Draft — The Worst League

Sep 8

Sep 8 Breaking Down the Draft

Can I just say that I really hate our league? Like seriously, it sucks.

I mean, the draft is just way too hard. You people are too smart. I’m not in a lot of leagues, but the Worst League is easily the most difficult draft of any in which I participate. And I drafted in a 12-teamer last weekend where every pick was 30 seconds. And that was a piece of cake compared to what happened Tuesday.

By the time we got around to the 10th round, I was already out of all my favorite sleepers. And you know I do my draft prep. So credit to the rest of you for making life difficult. I would suggest not writing this column anymore, but let’s be honest—it ain’t what’s making you smarter.

So in the spirit of hopefully dumbing you back down, here’s a few things I learned from the 2019 Worst League draft, besides of course that a Chark is what comes out of a Butker. Thanks Nick.

By the Numbers

In this year’s draft, a total of 192 players were selected. Of those 192, there were 20 QBs, 62 RBs, 68 WRs, 17 TEs, 13 D/STs and 12 Ks. If you go back to peruse our 2018 Draft Rewind, you’ll see those numbers are pretty familiar. Basically, they’re almost the exact same as last year, just a few more QBs and TEs at the expense of the RBs and WRs. And oh yeah, somebody drafted a backup defense for the first time in four years. More on that below.

But overall, everything was pretty much in line with historical averages. In fact, rather than recap what happened, I’ll just reprint what I wrote last week:

Positionally, we see the continuation of a trend to load up on RBs early with WRs not far behind. Team owners tend to wait later and later on QBs. TEs see an elite tier go relatively early with the rest taken somewhere in the middle. And for the most part, people are waiting on defense and kicker until the last four rounds with the typical exception of one elite D/ST.

I mean, that’s exactly what happened.

In the first round, team owners loaded up on RBs with nine taken in total. It was the most RBs drafted in the first round since 2015. And yet ironically enough, it was also the fewest RBs taken overall (just 62) since 2012.

Perhaps that’s because WRs started to go shortly thereafter. In fact, runs on RBs and WRs seemed to alternate between the first four rounds with a majority of RBs being taken in Rounds 1 and 3, while WRs dominated Rounds 2 and 4. After four rounds, they were dead even with 21 drafted from each position. WRs finally outpaced RBs in Round 10 and never looked back, as they were a slightly more popular late-round selection. Which makes sense, given that it’s typically easier for multiple WRs on a given roster to be fantasy relevant.

One of the team owners who wasn’t jumping on RBs early was JT. Drafting from the 12th position, JT waited the longest to grab one, eventually selecting David Montgomery with the 36th overall pick. At first I thought that might be some sort of record, but it’s actually not uncommon for a team owner to go WR/WR at the first turn and as a result not get his/her first RB until the end of the third round. In fact, I did it in 2014. So too did Alex in 2015, which resulted in a championship. Gray did it in 2017. And back in 2012, JT, himself, waited until the beginning of the fourth round to pick Trent Richardson. The record for longest wait actually belongs to Trevor who waited until the eighth round in 2016 to grab Derrick Henry with the 90th (!!!) overall pick. Of course, he went 3-9-1 that year, so I can’t exactly advocate that strategy.

As for the signal-callers, Patrick Mahomes was the first QB off the board, going 18th overall to his namesake team, Sherlock Mahomes, and team owner, Erik. It was the first time a QB was drafted in the second round since Terryn took Cam Newton in 2016 and the earliest a QB has gone overall in five years.

Of course, Erik wasn’t done yet. After Mahomes, he drafted three other QBs, hitting the roster limit of four for the position for the first time in league history. It was the most QBs drafted by a single team since Nick drafted Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Andy Dalton in 2017. But he’s not the only one, three other owners in league history have drafted three QBs, each on multiple occasions, including JT (‘11, ‘14), Terryn (‘11, ‘13, ‘14) and Trevor (‘15, ‘16).

On the flip side, several owners exercised patience at QB. That includes several owners who set personal records for waiting on the position, including Samantha (Baker Mayfield, 63), Nick (Dak Prescott, 83), Brandon (Kyler Murray, 94), Alex (Lamar Jackson, 120) and Gray (Jameis Winston, 124). But Jess took the cake, not drafting a QB until the 16th and final round when she selected Derek Carr with the 188th overall pick. It was easily the latest a team owner had ever waited to draft his/her first QB. Her patience breaks the previous record set by Josh last year when he waited until the 12th round to select Matthew Stafford with the 138th overall pick. We’ll see if she makes a trade in the coming weeks.

Not much to report on the other positions. The TEs went mostly as expected with the top tier going in Rounds 2-4 and the rest following suit in later rounds. Ditto for the defenses and kickers relative to pre-draft expectations, though the Bears D/ST did last all the way until the 9th round when Geoff (not JT!) selected them 102nd overall.

Risers and Fallers

As for the individual players, it was interesting to see which players rose or fell down draft boards relative to where they were going in other ESPN leagues. To see which players were the biggest risers, I subtracted their ADP (recorded in the hours before the draft) from where they went in the Worst League draft. Here are the results:

Top 15 Draft Risers

This year, the Cowboys D/ST were the biggest risers. Shockingly (read: sarcasm), JT drafted them as the second defense off the board with the 109th pick—the first pick of the 10th round. That was almost 55 spots higher than where they were going in ESPN leagues with an ADP all the way back at 163.7. So a tad early, you might say. But if there’s one thing JT loves more than drafting a defense early, it’s dem ‘Boys.

The other risers were mostly RBs and a handful of WRs. Included in that list are several RBs that I was personally waiting on, thinking they would go later, but proved to be painfully wrong on. These were handcuffs like LeSean McCoy, Tony Pollard and Justin Jackson who went more than four rounds ahead of their ADPs. Plus, other sleeper backs like Devin Singletary and Kalen Ballage who got scooped up earlier than you might have expected due to the demand at the position.

Top 15 Draft Fallers

Looking at the guys who slipped down draft boards, it’s almost exclusively QBs, TEs, D/STs and Ks, which is reflective of the fact that team owners were more than willing to wait on these other positions relative to RBs and WRs. We’ve already discussed the QBs, but here we can also see how other top defenses like the Rams D/ST and kickers like Justin Tucker went much later. Also, it seems like no one knew what to make of the Colts TEs as both Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle were taken two to three rounds later than their ADPs.

Top 15 Draft Fallers (RB/WRs Only)

Okay, but defenses and kickers aside, who really fell? If we look just at RBs and WRs, it’s interesting to see which of the mainstream fantasy assets dropped in the draft. Of the fantasy stars, Michael Thomas fell from his ADP of 9.9 all the way down to the 19th pick in the draft where Geoff got a major steal, picking up a guy in the late second round who some consider to be the best WR in the draft, arguably better than his 6th overall pick Tyreek Hill. (At the very least, he’s the highest paid.) It’s a good debate between him and JT (who has Julio and Odell) about who has the better WR duo.

Julian Edelman fell around eight spots to Samantha in the fourth round. Melvin Gordon—who is still holding out—fell almost nine spots to Jess in the fifth. That may not have been enough if he continues to miss time. But if he does come back, she could see a major return on that fifth round pick. Jarvis Landry fell nine spots, again to Samantha, in the eighth. And Tarik Cohen fell more than a round to Erik in the ninth.

Finally, Terry McLaurin (aka Nick’s friend who did not even have a photo up on ESPN’s site during the draft) was ironically a draft faller. I guess we’re all sleeping on Terry.

Reunited and It Feels So Good

Geoff touched on this idea in the chat, so I thought I’d include some stats on it.

Several team owners reunited with players they had previously drafted in years past—a total of 38 players and nine team owners were brought back into each other’s loving grasp. JT, in particular, drafted three of the same players he did just last year, which includes Julio Jones, Allen Robinson and Michael Gallup.

The longest-standing connections to repeat this year were Jimmy Graham (Geoff) and Tyler Lockett (Jess). Geoff has now drafted Graham five times while Jess has drafted Lockett four straight years. (Get a room, you two.) Also consecutive are Alshon Jeffery (Erik) and Mohamed Sanu (Greco), both three years running now.

Overall, Geoff and JT have the most familiar lineups with six players they drafted previously. Meanwhile, excluding Beth Ann and Samantha who are both relatively new to the league, Nick is the only owner to have drafted a completely new team this year. So fresh and so clean.

Top 5 Burning Questions for 2019

5. Can Geoff go from worst to first?

Seems like there’s a new feature on the ESPN league page, which graphically projects the final standings of the league. (Hey ESPN, stop trying to steal my shtick!) Immediately after the draft, this is what it looked like.

After the draft, ESPN projects Geoff to finish first in the final standings.

Last year, Geoff finished in last place. Not only that, but he had the worst TW% in league history. But this year, ESPN projects Geoff’s team to finish in first place. He’s got an elite duo of WRs (Tyreek Hill and Michael Thomas), a top-4 TE in Evan Engram, a solid defense and an elite kicker, and Aaron Rodgers at QB (enough said). The only real question mark is at RB, but even there he’s got what could be a serviceable group with Chris Carson, Derrius Guice and Matt Breida. Not to mention Justin Jackson who might usurp the starting RB role in Los Angeles from Austin Ekeler while Melvin Gordon is out. It’ll be interesting to see if Geoff can return to the championship form he displayed in 2016.

But personally, I think these projections are totally crap. I mean, 12th?! I didn’t do that bad.

…

Did I?

4. Where will Jess get her QB?

As mentioned above, Jess waited historically long to draft a QB, ultimately ending up with the now Antonio-Brown-less Derek Carr. (More on that below.) But she made it clear from the draft chat that she was punting on the position, opting to stockpile WRs in hopes of a trade for a QB later. Now the question becomes when does she make that trade and with whom?

The obvious answer is Erik—he of the record four QBs. And with Antonio Brown, suddenly Tom Brady is looking a little more interesting. Jess has a slew of high-upside WRs (Sammy Watkins, Curtis Samuel, Corey Davis, Dante Pettis) that she could include in a deal, and Erik could certainly use the depth. But does he want WRs? And how long can Jess stay afloat with Derek Carr as her QB?

3. Will JT get enough RB scoring?

Like Geoff, JT has a dominant duo of WRs—Julio Jones and Odell Beckham, Jr. But unlike Geoff, I’m not as confident in JT’s RBs. Currently, he has five on the roster: David Montgomery, Duke Johnson, Peyton Barber, Kareem Hunt and Damien Harris. In his Week 1 game Thursday, Montgomery barely looked like the starter in Chicago, ceding many of the carries to Mike Davis. We’ll see how Duke Johnson looks Sunday. But beyond those two, it’s just a string of backups. Not sure what upside there is with Peyton Barber. Kareem Hunt can’t play until at least Week 10. And New England just doubled down on its passing game, so I’m not sure where that leaves Harris.

JT does have Carson Wentz and Zach Ertz at QB and TE. And once again the WRs are studs. But he’ll need both David Montgomery and Duke Johnson to be successful if his team is going to make it back to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

2. Can the Browns take Samantha back to the playoffs?

Is this team as good as I think it is? Because after going through the draft, I think I would trade my team for Samantha’s straight up. She’s got Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones and James White at RB. All studs though Jones did struggle in Week 1. (Whatever, it’s the Bears.) Then DeAndre Hopkins and Julian Edelman at WR. A high-upside guy at TE (O.J. Howard) and the Bake Show at QB. The depth is maybe questionable, but there are some serviceable guys there as well in Jarvis Landry and Jordan Howard. I really don’t see much of a weakness.

So can this group lead Samantha back to the promised land? If they’re going to do it, it’s going to be a duo of Cleveland Browns leading the way in Chubb and Mayfield. Not to mention Landry who should enter the picture during bye weeks. Currently, the Browns are a trendy pick for the Super Bowl. And I think Samantha just might be as well.

1. Will Antonio Brown sabotage save Beth Ann’s season?

The Antonio Brown saga has been quite the roller coaster this weekend, so you can be forgiven for not remembering exactly where we were when we drafted back last Tuesday. At the time Beth Ann selected Brown in the second round with the 23rd overall pick (the 10th WR off the board), Antonio Brown was still a Raider.

Not only that, but this was before Raiders GM Mike Mayock fined Brown for missing two practices, which led to Brown’s near altercation with Mayock, calling him a “cracker.” Which Brown denied. Then AB was going to be suspended. Then he delivered an “emotional apology” in front of the team. Then everything was all good… until Brown released this video on YouTube in which he may have secretly recorded coach Jon Gruden, which by the way is probably a crime.

Jon Gruden reportedly said he thought the video was “awesome.” (Side note: It is awesome. That thing should win a damn Cannes Lion.) Then the Raiders fined Brown for conduct detrimental to the team, which essentially voided $30 million worth of guaranteed money in his deal. So Brown asked for a release on Instagram and the Raiders (probably fed up with this whole saga) actually obliged him. Then just hours (or seconds?) later, Brown signed with the Patriots—because of course he did—which is where we stand today.

And all of that happened in a matter of three to four days. When I wrote this question, I had wondered if Brown would sabotage Beth Ann’s season? But now given all the hype around Brown-to-the-Patriots, fantasy analysts are wondering if Brown might replicate Randy-Moss-in-2007 levels of production. Suddenly, Beth Ann might have found one of those elusive first-rounders to pair with Alvin Kamara all the way at the back of the second round. Kinda like Alex with Ezekiel Elliott and Davante Adams last season.

But color me skeptical that this ride is over. At best, Brown is a malcontent who some believe conspired to sabotage his way to New England. And at worst, there’s something really wrong going on with Antonio Brown, which might require professional help. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finishes as WR1 or if he never plays a game for the Patriots.

Which is why I struggled with the decision initially. I had the pick right before Beth Ann and was looking for a WR. Ultimately, I chose Keenan Allen, opting for safe over Brown’s upside. And if I were given the choice again, I still don’t know what I would choose. In fact, Beth Ann (👋), if I offered you Keenan Allen right now for Antonio Brown, straight up, would you do the deal? Honestly, I have no idea if I would. Which is why this is my #1 burning question for 2019.

Antonio Brown might lead Beth Ann to the playoffs. Or derail her season entirely. I’m not sure where this train takes us, but one thing’s for certain. It’s going to be a bumpy ride.

And with that, we finally put an end to the preseason. There’s only one thing left to do and that’s play the games. Let the fun begin. Good luck to all!