Josh to Face Gray in Championship Final

I’m sorry, Christian McCaffrey.

I don’t know what else I can say. Words cannot properly express the gratitude I feel for you this season. You belonged in the Hall of Champions. And yet, I failed you. The team failed you. Especially, Emmanuel Sanders (0 points this week) failed you. And not just him, but Odell Beckham, Will Fuller, Damien Williams, Robby Anderson and every other player I tried to start at flex this season. None could live up to the standard you set on Sundays.

And what a standard it was. Over 1,300 yards rushing, 800 yards receiving, 18 TDs and one 2-point conversion just for good measure. All for a total of 309 fantasy points. That’s 22.1 ppg—one of only five players to average more than 20+ and the other four were QBs. The next closest RB to you in fantasy points was Dalvin Cook and you outscored him by 82. Hell, you had more than double the fantasy points of the #12 RB in fantasy (Joe Mixon), which is technically still an RB1 in our 12-team league. It boggles the mind.

For a fantasy team owner, players like these do not come around very often. I don’t believe I’ve ever owned a player of your caliber. In fact, I know I haven’t. Not many have. Here’s a list of all the #1 players by VBD since Josh joined the league. The pick they were taken in the draft is listed in parentheses. (As a reminder, I unfortunately don’t have this data for the first three years.)

14: DeMarco Murray, 282 pts, Trevor (15th)
15: Devonta Freeman, 230 pts, Jess (71st)
16: David Johnson, 313 pts, Jess (8th)
17: Todd Gurley, 302 pts, Geoff (16th)
18: Todd Gurley, 301 pts, Erik (1st)

As you can see, they’re almost always RBs picked in the first couple rounds, though Jess got Devonta Freeman all the way back at the end of the 6th round in 2015. This year, Christian McCaffrey (picked third overall), with 309 points still with two weeks to play, will likely eclipse them all in points.

But the funny thing about that list is that Christian McCaffrey is not alone in his plight as frustrated stud on a disappointing squad. Of those six team owners who magically drafted the #1 player in fantasy, only two made the playoffs—Jess in 2015 and Brandon this year. And neither won the championship. Jess at least came closer, finishing as the runner-up. Though it’s worth pointing out that her best player was the lowest-scorer of the bunch.

In fact, Christian McCaffrey is not even alone at the top. Check out this year’s list of most common players on fantasy rosters in the championship game, according to Field Yates.

Field Yates lists the top-5 most common players on fantasy championship rosters.

Surprise, surprise! None of the top-5 made it to the Worst League final. Not McCaffrey. Not Lamar Jackson (Alex), Austin Ekeler (Jess) or Aaron Jones (Samantha). Michael Thomas (Geoff) didn’t even make the playoffs.

Which all goes to show that fantasy, like real football, is a team game. It’s not enough to draft a singular star. It takes seven guys, plus a rockstar kicker and defense, to take you to the promised land. Even coming up one flex player short (ahem, Emmanuel Sanders) can doom you in the playoffs.

And unfortunately, despite yet another clutch top-3 finish at his position this week at a time when it mattered the most, I wasn’t able to do that for you, Christian McCaffrey. And for that, I’ll always be sorry, but still eternally grateful.

Thanks for the ride, CMC.

The Scoreboard

Josh used his highest scoring game in playoff history to get his first-ever playoff win.

You might recall last year’s semifinal recap was all about the “Great Regression.” This year, everybody brought it and there were fantasy points aplenty. In fact, all four playoff teams topped 100 points for the first time in league history, averaging a record-breaking 113.0 ppg. By comparison, last year just two teams scored over 100 points in the entire three weeks of the playoffs.

In the 1 vs. 4 game, Josh picked up his first-ever playoff victory with a 126-102 win over Samantha. No Mike Evans? No problem. Tampa Bay Buccaneer Breshad Perriman scored an unlikely 29 points to carry the day. It was the most points by a RB or WR since Amari Cooper had 39 for Samantha last year in the historic upset of Alex, and it ranks as the 14th-most points ever scored by a RB or WR in the playoffs. Not only that, but because Perriman was picked up off the waiver wire, it ranks as the most points ever by a free agent RB or WR in the playoffs. Kudos to Josh for starting him as Perriman was started in just 3.5% of ESPN leagues. For Samantha, she comes up just short of the final game for the second straight year despite a career playoff scoring average of 105.8 ppg, which ranks first all time. The woman brings it in the playoffs.

In the 2 vs. 3 game, Gray avenged his two playoff losses to Brandon with a 118-106 victory. A pair of Titans made it interesting with Brandon getting 24 points from Ryan Tannehill off the waiver wire. Unfortunately for him (i.e. me), many of those points went to A.J. Brown who scored 17. With Ezekiel Elliott (27 points) nearly matching Christian McCaffrey (28) stride for stride, this game was won at the margins. Devin Singletary outscored Emmanuel Sanders 6-0 at the flex (ironically, Brandon drafted Sanders one spot ahead of Singletary in the draft back in September). And the rest of the damage was done at D/ST and kicker, which Gray won by 7 points. No lineup regrets for Brandon though as Odell Beckham scored just 6 points on his bench.

Championship Preview

The computer rates Josh as a 59% favorite to win his first title.

After all the sleepers and busts, all the games and waiver wire gambles, all the consternation and group chat GIFs, it all comes down to this: (1) Josh vs. (2) Gray.

And what a championship final it is?! This is the first time the top two seeds will meet in the championship game in league history. In fact, it’s just the second time the 2 seed has made the finals ever with Brandon being the first last year, winning it all.

Not only is it a matchup of the top two seeds, but it’s also a game featuring the top two teams in the final Power Rankings, which has only happened twice and not since 2013. Both times the 2nd-ranked team in the Power Rankings took home the victory. That’s a good sign for Gray.

As for breaking down the matchup, we spent a lot of time on the podcast (if it’s ever uploaded; I swear we recorded one 😆) talking about this game, so I won’t go into great detail here. But I feel like it’s important to preserve some of the stats for posterity. After all, only one of these two will be immortalized in the Hall of Champions. So without further ado, here are your last two teams standing in 2019:

The Greatest—Gray
9-4, .626 TW%, 99.0 ppg

As far as league records go, Gray has almost all of them. He leads the league in career TW%, career scoring average, wins and playoff appearances. So it’s no surprise that the greatest player in Worst League history finds himself back in the championship game after a two-year hiatus from the playoffs entirely. In fact, his last time in the finals was 2014 when he lost to Jess. Overall, he’s 1-2 in championship finals with a win in 2013 over Greco and losses to Brandon (2011) and Jess (2014).

How did Gray get here? An unbelievable draft, in my opinion. One that was extremely deep. Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders, Devin Singletary, John Brown, Jameis Winston, Josh Allen and Mark Andrews—just some of the players Gray drafted this season. If he’d done nothing but start those players, I think he’d have cinched up a championship a long time ago.

Unfortunately, as you may have realized, many of those players didn’t make it to Gray’s final roster. That’s because Gray, like myself, is a tinkerer. And he traded many of them away including Evans, Sanders, Brown and Andrews. Not to mention dropping Winston at some point and trading away the Patriots D/ST. Despite a litany of trades, Gray is getting just 5.4% of his scoring from those transactions, compared to 21.4% for Josh who made one fewer. Which just goes to show that if Gray wins the championship, it might be in spite of all the moves he made, not because of it.

That being said, Evans is hurt and Lockett is coming on strong. So perhaps all those moves will be worth it. Travis Kelce, who Gray sold the farm to acquire back in Week 6, will be Gray’s last man standing on Sunday night. He’ll have one last chance to prove he was worth it, ironically against his former team owner.

Finally, one of the only career stats Gray doesn’t lead the league in is championships. (That’s yours truly with three.) But this year, Gray hopes to close the gap and add to his total by becoming only the second team owner in the league with multiple championships. Given his history, I wouldn’t be surprised if he does it.

Do you hear the emperor laughing? It’s about damn time.

The Greatest to Never Do It—Josh
10-3, .703 TW%, 101.7 ppg

Speaking of championships, Josh has none. In fact, before last week, he’d never won a single playoff game. It had actually become quite a thing for avid readers of my spreadsheets (read: me). By career TW%, Josh is hands down the most successful team owner in the league without a championship. He currently ranks fourth all-time in career TW% and fourth in scoring average, behind only Gray, Brandon and Alex. Meanwhile, a few team owners behind him in the all-time rankings have picked up championships, including Greco (2012), Jess (2014) and Geoff (2016).

How did Josh get here? A solid draft, but not nearly as deep as Gray’s. Three players in particular were terrific later-round selections including Derrick Henry (4th round), DJ Moore (5th) and Russell Wilson (10th). But beyond that, the draft recap is frankly surprising for a team that ranks as the sixth-best of all time, behind only two of Gray’s, two of Alex’s and one of Greco’s.

The real reason Josh is here is because of “the trade.” It was a six-player deal with Gray prior to Week 6 that netted him Mike Evans, Mark Andrews and the Patriots D/ST in exchange for Brandin Cooks, Travis Kelce and the Rams D/ST. Turns out, Gray paid a king’s ransom for a player that was only marginally better than the TE he already had on his roster. Meanwhile, Josh revamped a third of his lineup with a player (Evans) that still ranks as WR3 despite missing most of the last two games due to injury, plus Andrews (TE4) and the still feisty Patriots D/ST (19 crucial points in the semifinals). Swapping Cooks for Evans was a steal, especially considering Cooks only scored 16 points more the rest of the season (until the nine points he had on Saturday of Week 15).

Want proof this deal pushed Josh over the top? In the five weeks immediately following the deal, Josh went 5-0 (1st) with a .927 TW% (1st) while averaging 119.8 ppg (1st). His true record over that time was 51-4. That’s why he has the 1 seed. And that’s why he’s playing today.

Unfortunately for Josh, his team has not been healthy as of late. James Conner has dealt with injury for a significant portion of the season, though he is finally healthy now. But his stud WR acquired in the deal, Mike Evans, is now on IR. And Derrick Henry (RB3) is likely to miss today’s game, which means Josh will likely be without his top two players in the finals. That’s just crushing.

And to make matters worse, he’s facing not only the second-best team in the league, but the hottest team in the league. Over the last three weeks of the regular season, Gray went 3-0 (1st) with a .818 TW% (1st) while averaging 104.7 ppg (1st). In fact, since Week 11 including the playoffs, Gray has scored 90 points or more in every single game. Over that same time frame, Josh has four performances in the 80s. Not a good sign.

All of which means that if he’s going to dispose of that ignominious honor of greatest-team-never-to-win-a-championship, he’ll have to do it the hard way. And there’s nothing more difficult than defeating the greatest team owner this league has ever seen.

The Prediction

Alex and I already announced our predictions on the pod, but I’ll restate it here. My pick is Gray. He was my pick before the playoffs started and I see no reason to go away from that pick now, especially now that Josh will be without Derrick Henry too. I just think the foursome of Zeke, Fournette, Lockett and a surging A.J. Brown (somehow WR19 on the season), will be too much for Conner, Mostert, Moore and Perriman. That is a MASH unit if I’ve ever seen one.

But crazier things have happened. And as Christian McCaffrey can attest, having the best player on your team doesn’t always equate to a win at the end of the day. And if Josh can hold on, there’ll be no need for apologies to anyone ever again.

The Hall of Champions is ready for its newest tenant. Who will rise to take the throne?