Samantha, Brandon Advance to Semifinals

Fantasy kryptonite is a powerful thing.

It’s not something to be joked about or trifled with. Or to jinx yourself by sarcastically stating on a podcast (skip to 1:13:16) that, “it’s extremely important who you play well against because it makes a difference.” Well, turns out does. Because while it may seem logical to suppose your fantasy opponent would have no impact on the performance of your own fantasy players, you’d be dead wrong.

Look no further than the fates of Alex and Jess this week who once again fell victim to Samantha and Brandon, respectively. Alex is now 0-4 against Samantha all time including two losses in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Jess is 1-10 against Brandon including two losses in the playoffs as well. No other team owner has lost a greater percentage of their games against another league opponent (with at least three games played) than have Alex against Samantha and Jess against Brandon. It’s eerie.

I can’t explain it. You can’t explain it. Perhaps, only 1996’s post-grunge rock sensation 3 Doors Down can explain it. As they sang in their 4x platinum hit single:

I watched the world float to the dark side of the moon
After all I knew, it had to be something to do with you
I really don't mind what happens now and then
As long as you'll be my friend at the end

If I go crazy, then will you still call me Superman?
If I'm alive and well, will you be there and holding my hand?
I'll keep you by my side with my superhuman might
Kryptonite

Don’t worry, Jess. I’ll still be your friend at the end.

The Scoreboard

Samantha set the record for most points scored in the first round of the playoffs with 137.

In the 4 vs. 5 game, Samantha (the 4 seed) took down Alex 137-99, saving her highest scoring outing of the season for the playoffs. In fact, it was the most points scored this season, outpacing the 135 points Brandon scored all the way back in Week 1.

Not only that, but it was the most ever in the first round of the playoffs and tied for the third-most points in playoff history. Gray still owns that record with 151 points in Week 16 of 2015. Interestingly, had Samantha listened to Alex on last week’s podcast and started Noah Fant, she would have tied Gray’s record with exactly 151 points.

As for individual scorers, the surprise of the match was probably at QB where Jameis Winston outscored likely NFL MVP Lamar Jackson 34-19. It was only the third time this season (out of 11 weeks in which they both played) that Winston’s fantasy production bested Jackson’s. Six times this season Jackson scored at least 30 points. For Winston, that number was zero. So of course, Winston was the one lighting up the scoreboard Sunday, finishing with his best game of the season at just the right time for Samantha. Also piling on the points for Samantha were her studs at RB/WR with Nick Chubb, Aaron Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Julian Edelman all hitting double figures.

Meanwhile for Alex, Saquon Barkley’s 6 points were a fitting end to his season. Barkley struggled all season to live up to his first-overall draft selection, and in the first round of the playoffs, he fell short once again. As of Week 14, Barkley is just RB23 on the season. Alex’s 99 points were the seventh-most in a loss in playoff history. There’s no doubt that Lamar Jackson was a transcendent talent this year and once again a brilliant late-round QB pick for Alex (following his selection of Patrick Mahomes last year). But unfortunately, the rest of his roster, especially the RBs, could not make up the difference. This is his second straight loss in the first round of the playoffs, and Alex has not won a playoff game since his 2015 championship.

Finally, in the 3 vs. 6 game, Brandon (the 3 seed) took down Jess 92-57.

Jess came into this game as the coldest team entering the playoffs, averaging 79.3 ppg since Week 7, and only got colder. Her 57 points in Week 14 were her fewest in a game this season, worse even than the 60 points she scored in Week 12. In fact, it was the fewest points Jess has scored since she had 32 against Brandon in Week 9 of last year. (But at least then she had several key players on bye). It was also the fewest points ever scored by Jess in the playoffs, worsting the 65 she had in the championship round against Alex in Week 16 of 2015. That record is still owned by Josh who had 42 in Week 17 of that same year.

The biggest culprit was the non-skill positions. Brandon outscored Jess 29-1 at D/ST and kicker thanks primarily to -8 points from the previously dominant 49ers D/ST. The -8 points scored by the 49ers D/ST were tied for the worst by a defense this season and also tied for the worst in playoff history. What’s most ironic (and krypton-esque) about this performance was that the 49ers D/ST entered the game as the #2 defense in fantasy with eight double-digit scores this season. Before they went negative in Week 14, their previous low was 2 points. This was 10 worse than that. Shocking, frankly.

Also, underwhelming for Jess were the players she acquired in the trade package for Tyler Lockett—Miles Sanders and John Brown combined for just 8 points. (Though in fairness Lockett had just 4 points Sunday, himself.) Carson Wentz played well (19 points), but it wasn’t nearly enough.

For Jess, the story of her season are the RBs. Early on, it seemed like getting Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler in the fifth and sixth rounds, respectively, would be a coup. Combine that with Dalvin Cook (RB2) and David Johnson, and she had a devastating backfield that helped her hit triple digits in four of the first six weeks. At one time, she was the favorite to win her second championship.

But things change quickly in fantasy and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a fantasy team ever fall apart more disastrously than Jess’s team this season. David Johnson completely disappeared after the Kenyan Drake trade (though ironically he had 10 points on Jess’s bench this week). Adam Thielen struggled to stay healthy with a lingering hamstring injury. And Jess was forced to trade away Tyler Lockett (who has also struggled) just to keep her playoff hopes alive in a bye-week-ravaged Week 12.

But the most infuriating part of her season must have been the weekly decision about whether to start Melvin Gordon or Austin Ekeler. This week, Ekeler outscored Gordon 27-13 on her bench, which marked the fifth time this season (out of eight when both were active and Jess started just one) that she picked the wrong Chargers RB to put in her lineup. Here’s the full week-by-week breakdown with the player Jess started in bold. Note that in Week 11, she started both players and in Week 12 the Chargers were on bye.

W5: Austin Ekeler: 6, Melvin Gordon: 3
W6: Melvin Gordon: 4, Austin Ekeler: 2
W7: Austin Ekeler: 17, Melvin Gordon: 7
W8: Melvin Gordon: 9, Austin Ekeler: 7
W9: Melvin Gordon: 22, Austin Ekeler: 9
W10: Melvin Gordon: 18, Austin Ekeler: 9
W11: Austin Ekeler: 12, Melvin Gordon: 8
W12: Chargers Bye Week
W13: Austin Ekeler: 12, Melvin Gordon: 10
W14: Austin Ekeler: 27, Melvin Gordon: 13

As you can see, she would flop back-and-forth between the two as they jockeyed for position with the Chargers backfield. Ultimately, the real answer might have been to trade away one or just to start them both. But I’m betting she stays away from both in next year’s draft. Too many bad memories.

Finally, Brandon dealt with a bit of adversity in Week 14 as Josh Jacobs was a surprise inactive. As a result, Brandon picked up and started DeAndre Washington who had 15 points in Jacob’s place. But Brandon’s real Week 14 MVP was Falcons kicker Younghoe Koo who had 18 points, which was tied for the most points by a kicker started in the Worst League this season and the fourth-most in playoff history. Brandon’s win pushes his league-best career playoff record to 8-1.

Looking Ahead to the Semifinals

Brandon and Samantha’s championship probabilities increased by 9% and 6%, respectively.

With Alex and Jess eliminated, that sets up chalky matchups in the semifinals between the top four seeds.

In 1 vs. 4 game, Josh (the 1 seed) will take on Samantha looking for his first-ever playoff victory in his sixth try. If he’s going to do it, Josh will have to deal with a bit of adversity, himself. Though he didn’t play in Week 14, his team suffered a tremendous loss with a potentially season-ending hamstring injury to Mike Evans. (Sorry Josh, feel like I might have jinxed you a bit on this one by calling out your deal for Evans as the best of the season in our end-of-year awards.) Fortunately, James Conner may return to Josh’s lineup who has played just twice since Week 6. Then factor in free agent pickups of Raheem Mostert and Darius Slayton, and Josh may have just what he needs to get his first playoff win.

Meanwhile, Samantha will hope to keep her momentum going. In playoff history, the team owner who led the playoffs in scoring in Week 14 ultimately advanced to the championship game in 7 out of 8 years. So that’s a good sign for Samantha.

In league history, Josh and Samantha have played just twice, splitting those two games. Josh won last year 117-73, but Samantha got revenge in Week 11 with a 94-89 victory, though both team owners had many players on bye. This week, the rubber match will determine who goes to the finals. According to the computer simulations, Josh is a significant favorite with a 71% chance to advance.

Finally, the 2 vs. 3 game sets up a matchup of the two team owners with the highest career TW% in Gray and Brandon. They also lead the league in wins, playoff appearances and playoff wins.

There are some interesting lineup decisions being made in this one. Gray has dropped starter Josh Allen (in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick) due to a poor schedule down the stretch and plucked A.J. Brown off the waiver wire and inserted him into his lineup, benching Tyler Lockett. Meanwhile, I can personally attest to the fact that I have agonized over decisions of Kyler Murray vs. Ryan Tannehill and Odell Beckham vs. Emmanuel Sanders. The last time I went away from Murray, it cost me a win in Week 11. Dare I do it again? And you just know Beckham is going to go off the week that I bench him, while chasing Sanders 26 points in Week 14.

For their careers, this one’s been pretty evenly matched. Brandon is 6-5 against Gray all time, including a 116-73 win in Week 10 (though Gray had Leonard Fournette on bye in that one). But most interesting are their playoff matchups. Brandon and Gray have twice met in the playoffs. The first time was 2011 when Brandon defeated Gray in the highest-scoring championship final in league history. And the second was 2016, when Brandon staged the most dramatic upset in league history (Gray’s TW% entering the game was .808—the greatest of all time. Brandon’s was just .427). According to the computer simulations, this one’s a toss-up with Gray slightly favored with a 52% chance to advance.

Can Gray get revenge and even up their all-time series record? Or will Brandon advance to the finals for the fourth straight year? Will Josh win his first playoff game and take one step closer to that much coveted championship? Or will Samantha once again prove to be a giant killer in these playoffs?

Better bring that superhuman might. The championship game is just one door down.