Week 10 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Nov 17

Nov 17 Week 10 Power Rankings

This past week, Erik came down from Kansas City to catch the Cowboys vs. Vikings game in Dallas. Unfortunately for both he and Sherlock Mahomes (more on that below), things did not go his way. But as a consolation prize, he took a detour through Houston where he crashed with Samantha and me for a couple of days. You can hear more about that visit on this week’s episode of the podcast.

Ironically, Erik knows a little bit more about my city than I do, being from Texas. So together, we toured around, grabbing some tacos, stopping by Discovery Green downtown, driving through Memorial Park and even venturing out to the eclectic Beer Can House. (To think we could have combined our work for Habitat for Humanity with Texas football tailgates a long time ago. Who knew?)

As our tour of the city wound down, I took Erik to one of my favorite spots in Houston—Tea + Victory, which is a board game cafe in the Heights that serves up dozens of local craft beers and probably 20 times as many board games. The walls are full of them. They even have a docent of sorts who helps you pick out the right game for your group and can quickly teach you any game you like.

So Erik and I grabbed a couple of banana bread beers and set up shop in a booth with a game called Pentago. As Erik described it to me, it’s like 3D Connect Four. Basically, it’s a strategy game where two players take turns placing black and white marbles onto a board and then rotating one of the board’s four quadrants by 90 degrees. The first player to get five marbles in a row wins.

Erik (white) reacts to losing in overtime of our best-of-five series.

Like I said, it’s like Connect Four but if the grid were constantly moving while you’re playing it. As you might expect, things can change rapidly in the game. Just as you’re planning the perfect line, the board swivels and BOOM suddenly your opponent is about to score. You have to keep track of both your and your opponent’s pieces. You have to be able to think a few steps ahead. And you have to react to a constantly shifting field of play. All of which a very drinkable banana bread beer makes all the more difficult.

In a way, it’s not unlike fantasy football. Just when you think you’ve figured out who to play in your flex, or which TE you can count on, the board flips and everything changes. There’s an injury to a starter or a player is traded to a different team and your fantasy team is left reeling.

Antonio Brown’s release, Melvin Gordon’s holdout, Kenyan Drake’s trade, Gardner Minshew’s roller coaster ride from backup to phenom to benchwarmer, plus injuries to highly drafted players like Patrick Mahomes, Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams and more—all were game-changing moments during the season where the board flipped and suddenly team owners were left scrambling to pick up the pieces.

Just this past week, Kareem Hunt returned from his eight-game suspension to play his first game for the Cleveland Browns where he scored 7 points on 74 yards combined rushing and receiving for JT. Fortunately for Samantha, Nick Chubb was no less effective, totaling 11 points on 116 yards rushing. At least for now, it seems like Samantha won’t be negatively impacted. But could an infusion of Kareem at RB power JT’s hunt (See what I did there?) for the sixth and final playoff spot?

Or look at Christian Kirk (cover boy!) who scored 31 points on 138 yards receiving and 3 TDs on Josh’s bench. Suddenly, Josh—a team owner who is already getting 24.1 ppg from WRs (most among team owners who didn’t use their first two picks to draft top-flight WRs; that’s Geoff and JT)—may have a new starter on his hands. If we thought he was good before, what now?

And on the other end of the spectrum. What are we to make of Saquon Barkley’s 3 points on 30 yards receiving and (Count em!) 1 yard rushing? Can it really be possible that Alex’s team has been far better without the #1 overall pick than he’s been with him? The numbers say so with a TW% of .848 and 113.7 ppg in three games without Barkley vs. .435 and 83.0 ppg in seven games with him.

The point is that just when you think you have a handle on your team, your opponent or the playoff race, everything changes. You have to be ready to adapt. Or when that fails, order yourself another banana bread beer.

A friend helps too.

This past week, Nick joined Josh in Seattle while Erik hung with Brandon and Samantha in Houston.

The Scoreboard

Josh once again led all scorers for the third time in the last four weeks.

Throw out the record books!

For eight seasons, no one had ever started the year through the first 10 weeks with a record better than 8-2. Now, not one but TWO team owners have broken that record. This week, both Josh and Brandon became the first team owners in league history to go 9-1. All that’s left to do is see how long they can keep it going. Remember, the regular season record is 11-2 set by Gray in 2016 and 2011. If either can win three more games to close out the season, they’ll have it.

Speaking of Josh’s dominance, he once again led all scorers in Week 10 with 121 points, defeating Nick 121-87. This is his second weekly prize in a row and his third in the last four weeks. One week after writing that “I continue not to love Derrick Henry,” the Tennessee Titan shut me up with 30 points, his most on the season. But Henry was far from alone. Josh also got big contributions from Golden Tate (19 points), Mark Andrews (17), DJ Moore (12) and just enough from Russell Wilson (16) in overtime on Monday night to push him past Brandon once again for the weekly prize. Meanwhile, in a down week for scoring, Nick had a strong showing for the second straight week with encouraging games for Joe Mixon (13 points) and Robert Woods (9) on his bench. Still, moral victories aren’t worth much when you’re 3-6-1 and facing elimination. Hold on, Nick! Hold on!

The other 9-1 team owner, Brandon got there by defeating Gray 116-73 in a matchup of the second and third-ranked teams from last week’s Power Rankings. Despite trading away the Patriots D/ST prior to Week 6, Gray continues to work his alchemy on defense (13.2 ppg since dealing away the top-ranked defense), this time inserting the Steelers D/ST, which was good for 22 points. The problem was that’s about the only gold Gray struck in Week 10 with underwhelming games for Ezekiel Elliott (5 points), Stefon Diggs (4) and Devin Singletary (4), not to mention Leonard Fournette on bye and T.Y. Hilton out with an injury. Chalk it up to a tough week for Gray. Meanwhile, despite 0 points from Cooper Kupp, Brandon was firing on all the other cylinders, which included one-upping Gray at defense with 23 points from the Ravens D/ST.

With Gray losing, that opened the door for Jess who took down Beth Ann 97-77. After struggling initially since coming back from a holdout, it seems like Melvin Gordon has finally broken out with his second straight game of 18+ points, this time in Jess’s starting lineup. Both he and Dalvin Cook (23 points) helped return Jess to the dominant form she showed earlier this season, reaching 90+ points for the first time since Week 6. Unfortunately, just as one RB roared back to life, another finds himself in a slump with David Johnson totaling -2 points and dare I say looking like Kenyan Drake’s backup in Arizona. Still, it was more than enough to beat Beth Ann who struggled with Deshaun Watson on bye.

And don’t look now, but Samantha is also 6-4, tied with Gray and Jess for the division lead, following her fourth straight win, an 86-80 victory over Erik. Aaron Jones once again came up big with 27 points on 3 TDs, which helped Samantha survive bye weeks for both of her top WRs in Deandre Hopkins and Julian Edelman, not to mention Jordan Howard and Carlos Hyde. Meanwhile, it was another close loss for Erik who struggled to get points from anyone not named Patrick Mahomes or Amari Cooper, losing his fourth game of 13 or fewer points in the last four weeks.

Speaking of close losses, Greco lost her fifth straight game 80-71 to Alex. It’s her fourth loss by single digits in the last five weeks (and her fifth overall). That’s rough. And it could have been even closer had she not played the Broncos D/ST, which was on bye. As a result, Alex got the much needed win thanks in large part to superstar Lamar Jackson who saved the day with 32 points including a highlight reel spin move that was featured on all the Monday shows.

Finally, the most consequential game of the week was Geoff’s 82-56 victory over JT. In a battle of elite WRs, Tyreek Hill (21 points) and Michael Thomas (15) got the upper hand over JT’s duo of Julio Jones (7) and Odell Beckham Jr. (5). After starting 3-5, Geoff has now rebounded with two wins over direct competitors for a playoff spot (Alex and JT) and is now 5-5, which is tied for the sixth-best record in the league.

Power Rankings

In the Week 10 Power Rankings, Josh continues to stretch out his lead, distancing himself from the pack.

Last week we asked if Josh had “entered Thanos territory.” After another top-scoring week, his fifth 100+ point game in a row and third weekly prize in the last four weeks, I think the answer is obvious now. While his scoring is not as overpowering (119.8 ppg over the last five weeks compared to 130.6 ppg for Alex from his hottest five-week stretch from 2018), his dominance has been no less definitive. As I mentioned on the podcast, Josh is a preposterous 51-4 in true wins over the last five weeks for a TW% of .927. By comparison Geoff had five true losses this week. And that’s in a week he won!

With three weeks to go, I think it’s warranted to ask what records are within reach for Josh’s team? In other words, could this team be an all-timer?

Well, despite his dominance, the truth is Josh already has too many true losses. Gray’s GOAT team from 2016 went 115-27-1. At 81-28-1, Josh already has one more true loss through 10 weeks than Gray had for an entire season. But just by TW% alone, his team currently ranks as the fourth-best team of all time behind only the GOAT team, Alex last year and Gray’s season from way back in 2011, ironically none of which are champions. Those three teams also lead the record books in points with Alex’s 1,491 from last year on top. To break into the top three in either category, he’d have to post the best score each of the last three weeks while averaging around 117 ppg, which is a pretty tall task. So while he won’t finish on top, he has a chance to be considered among the league’s elite regular season teams. Certainly, he could become the first 12-1 team, which would be a record-setting achievement in and of itself.

After Josh, Gray fell two spots following a down week, allowing Brandon and Jess to move up one spot into second and third, respectively. Now for the first time since Week 3, the two teams with the best record find themselves at the top of the Power Rankings. That’s Josh and Brandon, the latter of whom is now on an eight-game winning streak, which is one game short of the regular season record.

Among the teams most directly in the thick of the playoff hunt, Alex, Geoff and Samantha are ranked fifth, sixth and seventh, which is how they rank in points as well despite the fact that Samantha has the best record among the bunch.

Finally, in the back half of the Power Rankings, teams remained relatively static this week with all the favorites winning (minus Gray). The two exceptions were Nick and JT as Nick moved up into a tie for eighth with Beth Ann, following a solid outing in a loss. Meanwhile, JT dropped two spots to 11th after his second game this season with fewer than 60 points of which there have been only five total.

Playoff Picture

We have our first clinched playoff spots!

With wins over Nick and Gray, Josh and Brandon have punched their tickets for the playoffs, which is relatively early. Last year, that didn’t happen until Week 11 and the year before it wasn’t until Week 12. That’s probably no surprise given that these two team owners are off to the best start in league history.

This is Josh’s fourth playoff berth in six years and his second in a row. For Brandon, it’s his fifth playoff berth, which is now tied with Greco and Gray for the most in league history (though Gray has a chance to break that record with six this year). Brandon does have the longest active playoff streak with four in a row, having not missed the playoffs since 2015.

As for the division, the computer still prefers Josh who is projected for more wins and has a 35-point lead in points with three games to go. Moving forward, both have relatively easy schedules with Josh’s slightly easier. (They both play Alex and Samantha, but Josh plays JT while Brandon plays Nick.)

As for the rest of the league, no one has been eliminated from playoff contention, though Greco, Erik, Beth Ann and now Geoff can no longer win the Leaders Division. That’s strictly a competition between Josh and Brandon. So with two teams locked up, let’s break down the race for the remaining four playoff spots.

Who are the near locks?

The computer really likes Gray and Jess, giving both a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Not only do they have advantages in wins (6-4) and points (they rank third and fourth, respectively), but they also have the two easiest schedules remaining with games against Geoff and Greco, plus another team owner in the bottom half of the Power Rankings (Beth Ann for Gray; Erik for Jess).

The most likely scenario for either of them to be knocked out of a playoff spot would be for Samantha, Alex and Geoff to pass them in the standings, going 3-0 or 2-1 down the stretch while Jess and Gray go 1-2 or 0-3. That would leave them as the two team owners fighting for the sixth and final playoff spot. Of course, JT could also spoil the party if they go 0-3 and he wins out.

But even in scenarios where Gray or Jess go 0-3 down the stretch (which happened in just 3-4% of simulations), they still make the playoffs 71-72% of the time because of other teams losing or their points lead.

Realistically, they probably need just one more win to feel solid about their chances. For example, Gray made the playoffs in all but nine simulations (out of 10,000) in which he won one more game.

Who wins the Legends Division?

The real drama for Gray and Jess will be who wins the division. Currently, that’s Gray because of his points lead. But that margin is razor thin. Right now, he’s got 973 points on the season. Jess has 972.

The computer favors Gray, giving him a 59% chance. But that’s assuming he holds on to the points lead. Given that Jess is actually projected for more wins, has the easiest schedule and has the better team by TW%, I would say she’s the favorite to take the 2 seed (if not the 1 seed pending a disastrous final three games for Josh and Brandon).

I should also point out that Samantha is a possibility here as well. After all, she’s tied with Jess and Gray in wins at 6-4. The problem is while Jess and Gray have cupcake schedules, Samantha has the most difficult schedule remaining with games against both 9-1 teams, Brandon and Josh, in the next two weeks before finishing with Beth Ann in Week 13. Not only that, but she trails both Jess and Gray by nearly 100 points in scoring, which means in a tie she loses. Effectively, she’s a game back in the standings. That’s why the computer gives her just a 4% chance.

Oh yeah, and technically Alex could win the division too. But that only happened in 54 out of 10,000 simulations. Like Samantha, he plays Brandon and Josh, and he trails in points, plus he’s one game further back in the standings at 5-5. It’s not impossible, but it’s definitely an uphill battle.

Who is in the hunt?

Okay, Josh and Brandon are in. Now let’s assume both Gray and Jess make the playoffs too with one of them winning the division. That’s four spots sewn up, which leaves eight teams battling it out for the final two spots.

Of those eight, Samantha, Alex and Geoff are in the best shape. Each of them has better than a 50/50 chance of making the playoffs. In all likelihood, there’s a better than 93% chance that our final two playoff teams will come from this group of three.

And the race will be fascinating. Unlike with Gray and Jess, these three team owners all face equally difficult schedules ahead. Samantha and Alex must play both Brandon and Josh. While Geoff has to face both Jess and Gray.

With a leg up in wins, Samantha is in the driver seat. Alex also controls his own destiny given that he leads Geoff in points. But it’s tight with Alex leading Geoff by just 20 points with three games to go. That’s a gap that could be easily bridged in one week let alone three. And should Alex or Geoff both outplay Samantha over the last three weeks, she has the most ground to make up in points, trailing Alex by 46 and Geoff by 26.

Like I said, it’s tight and I won’t be surprised no matter who comes out on top.

Who are the dark horses?

What about Nick, JT, Beth Ann, Erik and Greco?

These five team owners are definitely on the outside looking in. But with three weeks to go, they all still have a chance. Right now, I would divide this group into two.

The first tier is Nick and JT. These are the dark horses. Collectively, the computer gives them a better than 6% chance that one of them makes the playoffs, which is not insignificant. And you might be surprised to find that Nick (3-6-1), not JT (4-5) has the better odds of the two to make it there despite the fact that he’s a half game behind. What gives?

At first I thought it was the points tiebreaker. Nick does have a 29-point lead on JT. But with Nick, the tiebreaker will almost never come into play. That’s because the tie he got back in Week 6 essentially operates as a tiebreaker in and of itself. Since that tie counts as half a win, he would never tie another team owner in win percentage (with the exception of Beth Ann who also has a tie). Which means the points tiebreaker would almost never come into effect. He’d either be a half-game better or a half-game worse than almost every team owner vying for a playoff spot, including JT.

And what’s weirder is that Nick at 6-6-1 actually makes the playoffs a greater percentage of the time (56%) than JT does at 7-6 (47%), despite the fact that you’d absolutely prefer to be 7-6. To be clear, a 7-6 JT team would make the playoffs over a 6-6-1 Nick team every time. So why in god’s name is my computer giving me this result? It turns out it’s not about the record, it’s about who they’re playing to get to that record.

When JT wins out, he beats Greco, Erik and Josh. Losses for those three owners aren’t really changing their fortunes. Greco and Erik are still missing the playoffs and Josh is still making it. Even at 7-6, JT is still at the mercy of Samantha, Alex and Geoff. If they win, there’s nothing he can do about it.

But when Nick wins out, he beats Brandon, Beth Ann and most importantly Geoff. Like with JT, losses for those first two owners don’t matter. Brandon still makes it in. Beth Ann still misses. But beating Geoff is significant because it directly hurts Geoff’s chances of making the playoffs. Which makes that Week 13 contest all the more crucial if Nick can win his next two games.

What about the really long shots?

As for the last three team owners, their odds are extremely long. But it’s possible. Beth Ann, for example, made the playoffs in 10 out of 10,000 simulations. In those specific instances, she beat Gray, Nick and Samantha to go 5-8-1 while Geoff and Alex both lost their last three games and JT lost two of his last three (all finishing 5-5). She then tied Nick in wins but beat him with the points tiebreaker to claim the sixth and final playoff spot. The playoffs were Josh, Brandon, Jess, Gray, Samantha and Beth Ann. So it’s possible!

For Erik and Greco, it never happened in 10,000 simulations. But my computer does not take into account the possibility that either of those team owners could score a bajillion points in the next three weeks and not only finish 5-8 but also near the top in points. For example, if I re-run my simulation giving Erik the points lead, he suddenly makes the playoffs 10 out of 10,000 times. Ditto for Greco, but just 2 times! Hey, I said it was a long shot.

In all cases, all three need the team owners currently with more than five wins to advance (Josh, Brandon, Jess, Gray and Samantha) while Alex, Geoff, JT and Nick finish with no more than five wins themselves. That means Alex and Geoff lose out while JT and Nick win one game or fewer. Then if they win out and score a ton of points, they could sneak in at 5-8 with the points tiebreaker. But unlike with Nick, that tiebreaker is essential. So give your team a pep talk and start scoring some TDs!

Looking Ahead to Week 11

We’re in the home stretch! Just three games to go. So let’s break down the matchups.

Just like last week, Geoff (5-5) is in another crucial contest with playoff implications, this time against Jess (6-4). Jess is 7-1 against Geoff all time and has won six straight games against him with Geoff’s last win coming in 2012. But this time it will be a battle of attrition as Jess will be without Tyler Lockett (bye) and Adam Thielen (hamstring). Meanwhile, Geoff will be without Aaron Rodgers, Chris Carson and Evan Engram (all on bye) plus Matt Breida (ankle). Luckily, Geoff already got a much-needed 21 points from Baker Mayfield Thursday night. With David Johnson possibly ceding carries to Kenyan Drake this week, this could be a really close one that comes down to Melvin Gordon and Tyreek Hill on Monday night.

Josh (9-1) will hope to extend his winning streak to six as he takes on Samantha (6-4). Josh is 1-0 against Samantha with a 117-73 victory last year. But suddenly, the league frontrunner may be vulnerable. James Conner scored just 1 point Thursday night as he left early with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Samantha poured on the points, giving her an early 36-1 lead. With Josh missing Russell Wilson, Derrick Henry and Golden Tate, all on bye, Samantha has a shot to be a giant killer once again. Still, she’ll have to do it at half strength, playing without Aaron Jones, Josh Gordon and Jimmy Graham (all on bye), plus Jordan Howard (shoulder) inactive.

Alex (5-5) will hope to keep it going against Erik (2-8). Luckily, he’ll be without Saquon Barkley this week (on bye), without whom his team has actually played better. Unfortunately, he’ll also be down Devonta Freeman (foot) and George Kittle (knee/ankle). That leaves the door open for Erik who hopes to get his first win since Week 6. Alex is 6-8-1 against Erik all time.

With newly minted RB Damien Williams, JT (4-6) will hope to get back on the winning track with a game against Greco (2-8). While JT should be at full strength, including having Kareem Hunt back for a second week (he scored 5 points on Thursday night), Greco will be without DK Metcalf and Jamaal Williams, both on bye. Unfortunately, JuJu Smith-Schuster did not do much to help the cause, scoring just 2 points on Thursday before exiting early with an injury. JT is 3-6 against Greco all time, including a loss in the first round of the 2017 playoffs.

Hoping to keep pace with Jess and Samantha, Gray (6-4) will face Beth Ann (2-7-1). This is the first time these two team owners are meeting. Gray continues to be without T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Brandin Cooks (concussion) who are both nursing injuries. Beth Ann will be without Sterling Shepard on bye, but will have both of her top playmakers, Russell Wilson and Alvin Kamara, in her lineup for the first time since Week 6. This is a dangerous game for Gray who has quietly lost two straight since starting 6-2 and confidently admitting on the Worst Cast that he was looking ahead to the playoffs.

Finally, Brandon (9-1) will hope to extend his league-best eight-game winning streak to nine when he faces Nick (3-6-1). Brandon has his regular complement of players, but will be resting starter Kyler Murray who is facing the 49ers this week. Meanwhile, Nick will be without Davante Adams (bye). Still this one could be closer than you might expect with new WR Odell Beckham Jr. scoring just 6 points on Thursday night after coming up just short of a TD on the game’s opening drive. Brandon is 10-5 against Nick all time.