Week 7 Power Rankings

Five years ago, when the Packers started the season with a disappointing 1-2 record, Aaron Rodgers had a simple message for all of Packer Nation.

“Five letters here just for everybody out there in Packer-land: R-E-L-A-X.”

And he was right. The Packers bounced back from their slow start to rebound to 12-4 and win the division. Not only that, but they tied for the most wins in the NFL that season.

This year, Packer fans didn’t have to relax at all as they won their first three games for the first time since 2015. Coach Matt LaFleur even became the first coach in the franchise’s history to start his career 6-1. But for fantasy purposes, perhaps Aaron Rodgers was relaxing a little too much. Through the first six weeks of the season, Rodgers was averaging just 15.0 ppg without a single game of more than 2 TDs.

But this is not a post about Jess. It’s about Geoff. And 15.0 ppg is not exactly what you’d expect from your fourth-round pick and the third QB off the board. As a result, it’s no surprise Geoff had an equally tough start to the season. He scored 79 and 76 points in Weeks 1 and 2 and was just three points away from an 0-3 start. For a team owner coming off the worst season in Worst League history, it seemed a little like “here we go again.”

Until this past Sunday, when Aaron Rodgers remembered he was Aaron Rodgers en route to 429 yards passing, 5 passing TDs and another one on the ground for a total of 43 fantasy points—the most scored by a player started in the league this season. As a result, Geoff got the win over Nick in Week 7, bringing his record to 3-4 on the season. Not only that, but for the first time since Week 9 of 2017, Geoff has worked his way back into the top half of the Power Rankings. And now, if the playoffs were to start today, Geoff would be the 6-seed.

That’s right. It’s been almost two years since Geoff was fantasy relevant. But like Aaron Rodgers, it appears he may be bouncing back in a big way. And if he does so, he could put himself in the pantheon of other great bounce-back seasons.

Which of course is something we can quantify. If we measure a bounce-back season as the improvement in TW% from one season to the next, Geoff’s would rank as the fifth-most improved team of all time. And that would put him in some pretty good company.

Just last year, Nick had the greatest bounce back in league history, when he rebounded from a 4-9 season that at the time ranked as the worst ever by TW% (only a half true game better than Geoff’s season last year) to go 10-3 and grab the #1 overall seed.

In 2014, Jess turned a 5-8 team into a 10-2-1 team that started out hot and never faded, winning a championship and cementing her place among the top contenders in the league. That team didn’t lose its second game until Week 12!

Not all improvements were from bad to good. Some were from just okay to extraordinarily great. Such was the case for Alex last season who improved from 6-7 to 9-4, yes. But more impressively, his TW% jumped from a middling .503 to .794, just two true games back of being named the greatest team of all time. That was the Thanos team.

And finally, Geoff is no stranger to the bounce back, himself. His championship season from 2016 ranks as the fourth-most improved team of all time. That year, he nearly doubled his TW% from .350 in 2015 (when he went 4-9) to .615 in 2016 (when he finished 8-5).

Quietly, Geoff is turning things around this year just as he did in 2016. In fact, since Week 3, Geoff has the fourth-highest performing team in the league with a TW% of .591 and is averaging 97.0 ppg. Yes, he went 2-3, but only Jess, Gray and Josh have been better over the last five weeks.

With Tyreek Hill back, he’s got his lethal WR duo of Hill and Michael Thomas back healthy (albeit Hill is without Mahomes). He’s got a strong triumvirate at TE, defense and kicker with Evan Engram, the Bears D/ST and Greg Zuerlein. And now Aaron Rodgers is leading the way at QB. Prior to this week, Geoff ranked fourth-worst in QB scoring. Now Rodgers is QB7 and poised to break into the top-five with Matt Ryan and Patrick Mahomes out in Week 8. My only concern is the depth at RB where Matt Breida is currently the second-best RB on the roster and trending down as Tevin Coleman is on the rise in San Francisco.

But as I mentioned on the podcast, I think he’s got more than enough moxie to sneak his way into the playoffs and then possibly make some noise once he’s there. If he does, we could be talking about the greatest bounce-back season in league history.

From worst to first? It’s possible.

Don’t sleep on Geoff. Or you could be the one relaxing come playoff time.

The Scoreboard

Josh led all scorers with 116 points to claim his first weekly prize of the season.

I know we usually start at the top. But this week, we’re gonna start at the bottom. That’s because in a season in which scoring has been generally high, Week 7 was quite the dud. Scoring was down across the board with teams averaging just 80.2 ppg, which was the lowest scoring week since Week 13 of last year.

Perhaps there was no better indicator of that than the 65-64 slugfest between Alex and Brandon. Darren Waller’s 24 points helped save the day for Brandon who scored the fewest points in a win since Brandon, himself, scored 60 in a win over Trevor in 2017. (For the record, the fewest points ever in a win is 46, accomplished by Terryn over Erik in 2014.) Needing 11 points from Phillip Dorsett on Monday night, Alex came up just four yards short. As a result, it’s his third heartbreaking loss in a row and his second one-point loss in three weeks. Only once before has a team owner lost multiple one-point games in a single season. That was JT who did it twice back in 2013. Ultimately, he finished 6-7 and missed the playoffs and easily could have been 8-5.

Like Brandon, Jess continued her winning ways with a below-average scoring week that was just enough to defeat Erik 81-77. Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler continue to be an enigma for her (with Ekeler outscoring Gordon by 10 points on her bench), not to mention David Johnson who was essentially a surprise inactive. Still, team MVP Dalvin Cook came through with 26 points, which was enough to overcome a hobbled Patrick Mahomes who was injured in a Thursday night game against the Broncos.

In the battle of league newcomers, Samantha scored an important 92-66 victory over Beth Ann thanks to a timely 27 points from streaming QB fill-in Jacoby Brissett and a mini breakout from DeAndre Hopkins who reached double-digits for the first time since Week 1. On the flip side, Beth Ann struggled with second overall pick Alvin Kamara declared inactive before the game. As a result, she was forced to start both Marlon Mack and change-of-pace back and teammate Nyheim Hines at RB. Neither topped five points.

As we mentioned above, Geoff broke out with a 94-74 victory over Nick. Over 45% of that scoring came from Aaron Rodgers, with four players scoring three points or fewer. Still, it was more than enough to get the win as Nick continued to pile up the losses with Joe Mixon struggling (RB33 on the season) and Davante Adams sidelined for a third straight week. Nick has not won a game since he defeated Gray in Week 1.

Lastly, two team owners broke the century mark in Week 7. First, Gray defeated Greco 108-51. The most recent guest of the podcast got double-digit scoring nearly across the board. Ironically, the exceptions seemed to be the players included in the deal with Josh prior to Week 6. Brandin Cooks and Travis Kelce combined for just 9 points and without the Patriots D/ST, Gray got just 2 points from his defense. It was the first time he’d gotten fewer than 14 points from his defense since Week 1. Still, it was plenty against Greco who tallied the fewest points of the week thanks in part to in-game injuries to Matt Ryan and Kerryon Johnson. The latter is especially damaging as Johnson has been placed on IR. With the third-round pick expected to miss the rest of the season, it’s probably the most significant injury to a player this season not counting Antonio Brown whose absence was self-inflicted.

Finally, Josh topped all scorers this week, defeating JT 116-74. It’s Josh’s first weekly prize of the season and his first since Week 9 of last year when he won three. Full credit goes to Chase Edmonds, who Josh picked up on the waiver wire prior to Week 6 and made a surprise start for David Johnson, scoring 32 points. Oh yeah, and that Patriots D/ST, which continued to wreck shop, scoring 23 points in a victory over the Jets. Meanwhile, without Odell Beckham Jr., it was a down day for JT’s RBs and WRs who totaled just 23 points combined. But at least Gardner Minshew bounced back with 20 points. Since “The Trade,” Minshew is back to outscoring Carson Wentz 44-37. 🤷‍♂️

Power Rankings

Geoff is the biggest mover of the week, jumping to the top half for the first time in almost two years.

Despite the low point total, Jess garnered just enough true wins this week to maintain her lead atop the Power Rankings. But she’s joined in a top tier by Josh and Gray who both moved up one spot into second and third, respectively.

Following his 64-point loss this week (well, I guess technically it was a one-point loss, but you know what I mean), Alex drops two spots to fourth where he and his opponent from this week, Brandon, sit a healthy margin below the top. Despite the loss and the worse record, Alex still rates as the better team as Brandon has quietly been awful these last couple weeks—worst in the league actually by TW% averaging just 70.5 ppg. Christian McCaffrey cannot get back from bye fast enough.

Our biggest mover of the week was Geoff who jumped three spots into sixth following Aaron Rodgers scoring outburst. Tied for seventh are Beth Ann and Greco, both team owners who ranked within the top-three after the first two weeks, but have since fallen on hard times. Erik falls one spot to ninth following the Patrick Mahomes injury where he and Samantha round out the middle tier.

Finally, JT and Nick round out the bottom. Still JT at 3-4 is still very much in the hunt. And Nick at 1-5-1 is certainly not eliminated. But let’s be honest, things could be better.

Playoff Picture

Geoff has a 43% chance of making the playoffs.

With seven weeks in the books, we are now over halfway through the regular season, which means it’s officially time to start freaking out about the playoffs. So let’s take a closer look at the race.

Who are the locks?

Technically, no one. Even the 6-1 teams (Josh and Brandon) could lose out and finish 6-7. And only 14% of team owners that finished with a 6-7 record have made a six-team playoff. So realistically, Josh, Brandon, Jess and Gray all need to win at least a couple more games.

But the odds of that are pretty high. Which is why the computer rates each of them as having at least a 99% chance of making the playoffs. Josh, in particular, is seen as a heavy favorite to make the playoffs, having done so in 9,995 out of 10,000 simulations. The reality is 6-1 teams and 5-2 teams almost always make the playoffs, having done so 18 out of 19 times. (The lone exception being Gray in 2012 who started 5-2 but finished 5-8.)

The real competition among that group will be for the division and the much coveted first-round bye that comes with it. Given that several powerful teams have been upset in the early rounds of the playoffs in recent years (Alex in 2018, Gray in 2016), don’t think we’ll be seeing any of those teams relax just yet.

Who’s still in the hunt?

Technically, everyone. Even Nick with a 1-5-1 record could make the playoffs. Heck, he’s done it before. Well, kind of. In 2016, Nick rebounded from a 1-6 start, winning his last six games to finish 7-6. If we’d had a six-team playoff that year, hypothetically he would have made the cut. This year, he’s already got a half-game head start on that comeback.

And he doesn’t even have to win out to do it. In 53 out of 10,000 simulations, Nick won just four of his last six games and finished 5-7-1 but amazingly still made the playoffs! How is that possible? I mean, the worst record that’s ever been good enough to make a six-team playoff is 6-6-1 by Geoff and Erik in 2013.

But this year, we could break that record. And that’s because the league is so top heavy. In fact, this is the first year we’ve had two 6-1 teams in Week 7 since 2011 when Brandon and Gray did it. Because teams at the top are hoarding all the wins, it minimizes the separation among the middle tier.

So how many wins do I need?

Suddenly, 6-7 is very much in play. Even 5-8. I don’t have a fancy infographic to share, but I did some number crunching based on the simulations, and these are the playoff rates across the league for several possible records.

9-4: 100%
8-5: 99.95%
7-6: 95.21%
6-7: 44.58%
5-8: 2.12%
4-9: 0%

As you can see, teams with a 9-4 or an 8-5 record, make the playoffs almost every time as we’d probably expect in a six-team playoff. But look at the rate for 7-6 teams! This year, they’re practically locks as well. Over 95% of teams that finished with a 7-6 record made the playoffs. That’s remarkably high.

And then for 6-7 teams, it’s still practically a coin flip. About half of teams that finish with a 6-7 record this year are expected to make the playoffs. That’s pretty good considering no team has ever done it.

And yet—like the moral bankruptcy of some government officials these days—it seems there’s no depths to which you can’t sink and yet still find success. It’s not likely, but around 2% of teams that finish with a 5-8 record made the playoffs. I should point out, however, that most of those belong to Beth Ann who technically would be slightly better than that at 5-7-1 thanks to her tie.

So how many wins? I’d aim for 7 to be safe. Or get 6 and have a lot of points and you’ll be in good shape. Even 5 with a bullet and a prayer ain’t out of the question. But with the majority of teams in the league having between 2 and 3 wins right now, you probably need to go at least 4-2 or 3-3 down the stretch, respectively depending on your record, to have a good shot.

And don’t forget about the points! Run up the score any chance you get because the points tiebreaker will no doubt determine who is in and who is out. Right now, that benefits Alex and Geoff, which is why they have the highest odds of making the playoffs among that middle tier.

But seriously, it’s still anyone’s game. Check out the Playoff Picture from this time last year and you’ll see the odds are much more dispersed.

Looking Ahead to Week 8

We previewed these a bit on the pod this week, so I won’t go into much detail. But here are some quick stats about this week’s matchups from heavyweights to lightweights.

Josh (6-1) is 0-6 against Jess (5-2) all-time including a 2018 postseason loss. It’s the longest active winless streak in the league. Jess will be without Adam Thielen and it appears David Johnson. Josh will be without Mark Andrews and cruelly starting Chase Edmonds against her. How rude?

Gray (5-2) is 9-6 against Erik (2-5) all-time. Erik will be without Patrick Mahomes and Amari Cooper. But Gray will be without fourth overall pick Ezekiel Elliott. Gray’s is the better team. But Erik’s is more desperate. Who wants it more?

Alex (3-4) will face off against Beth Ann (2-4-1). It’s the first time these two team owners will be playing each other. Alex will be without Lamar Jackson, but has a Bronco in Courtland Sutton that’s potentially ready to break out in a big way with Emmanuel Sanders off to San Francisco. Beth Ann, it appears, will be without second overall pick Alvin Kamara once again.

Brandon (6-1) is 5-3 against JT (3-4) all-time. Both are at nearly full strength, though JT will be without Justin Tucker and Keenan Allen, for Brandon, is a game-time decision. Also, it appears Ty Johnson will get his first start for both the Lions and Brandon. From the waiver wire straight to the lineup!

Geoff (3-4) is 1-0 against Samantha (3-4) in their only matchup last season, which Geoff won 72-53. Both should be at full strength, though Julian Edelman for Samantha is questionable. This is a big-time matchup for two dark horses that I like to make the playoffs. Winner gets the inside track and back on the other side of .500.

Finally, Greco (2-5) is 6-2 against Nick (1-5-1) all-time. Greco will be without Mark Ingram, Matt Ryan and Kerryon Johnson. Nick will be without Dak Prescott. If either of them can slot an active QB into their lineup before kickoff, it’s a good opportunity for Nick to get his first win since Week 1.

Alright, can’t believe you and I both made it all the way down to the bottom of this post. All that’s left to do is enjoy the rest of your Sunday. Or as Aaron Rodgers would say, relax.