Week 5 Power Rankings — The Worst League

Some weeks in fantasy football are defensive struggles. You hope to score just enough points to scrape by. Where sometimes point totals in the 70s or 60s are enough to get the win. Heck, twice in league history teams with scores in the 40s have won.

Well, this was not one of those weeks.

Week 5 was insanity with several team owners posting big scores. In the third-highest scoring week in league history, teams averaged a ridiculous 99.3 ppg. Believe it or not, it’s the second top-5 scoring week in league history just this season, which is shaping up to be a scorcher. We’ve just barely started to dip into the bye weeks where scoring drops, but league average for 2019 is currently 92.4 ppg, which is up from last year’s record of 91.6 ppg.

All of which was driven by the explosive play of several individual scorers in Week 5 including Deshaun Watson, Christian McCaffrey and Aaron Jones who all scored 41 points. (That’s why they share cover art honors this week, our first to ever feature multiple players.) Along with Russell Wilson’s 41-point Week 3 performance, those four point totals are all tied for the fifth-highest individual scores in league history. Previously, the most 40+ point scores in a single season was three set back in 2013. This week, we had three all in just one day.

And perhaps, there’s no better illustration of the points-a-palooza than what happened to Beth Ann this week. Typically, when one of your player’s goes off for 41 points, you can go ahead and call it a game. But not this week. Despite getting 41 points from Deshaun Watson, Beth Ann still lost this week 113-86. It was the most points by an individual player in a losing effort in league history. Never had a team with a 40+ point scorer failed to get the win. The previous high was 37 points for Cam Newton and Terryn in a Week 12 loss to Gray in 2012.

All of which means you better bring your best every week. Because if Week 5 is any indication, no lead is safe.

The Scoreboard

Samantha barely edged out Alex 127-126 to lead all scorers in Week 5.

A week after proclaiming the Browns were back, they stunk it up in a Monday night matchup with the 49ers. But no matter, Samantha shrugged off the -2-point night from Baker Mayfield (wisely on her bench) to score a season-high for her 127 points.

And it turns out she needed every bit of it, including all 41 of Aaron Jones’ points, to beat Alex. In probably the most dramatic game of the season, Samantha got just enough from Nick Chubb on Monday night to offset a late charge from Alex and George Kittle. Alex’s 126 points were the most ever in a loss in league history, breaking the record set by Gray in Week 1 of 2016 when he lost to Greco 127-122.

In Minnesota, all that complaining from Adam Thielen did the trick for Jess whose third-round pick scored more in Week 5 (25 points) than he had in the previous three weeks combined. For her, it didn’t matter one bit that Melvin Gordon started to eat into Austin Ekeler’s production. Jess still romped her way to a 116-66 victory over Gray whose four pass-catchers (T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs and Mark Andrews) totaled just 11 points.

Speaking of bounce-back games, Samantha wasn’t the only one. Erik exploded in Week 5, defeating Beth Ann 113-86 to get his first win of the season. Like Samantha, it was his highest point total of the year and came on the back of Amari Cooper’s 11-catch, 226-yard receiving day, good for 28 points. Meanwhile, Watson’s 41 points accounted for 48% of Beth Ann’s scoring who struggled at WR without Kenny Golladay (on bye) and of course Antonio Brown.

The matchup between Geoff and Greco went back and forth on Sunday, with Greco ultimately pulling away for the 110-83 victory. Both had 30+ point scorers in Michael Thomas and Matt Ryan, but Greco had the better supporting cast to back hers up with Tyler Boyd (18 points), JuJu Smith-Schuster (11) and Mark Ingram (10) all going for double digits.

JT gave Nick his fourth loss of the season in a tightly contested 99-95 game. In the game immediately following last week’s controversial trade, Gardner Minshew ironically came up big, ultimately delivering the win for JT. It was Minshew’s 20 points, not to mention the 2 TDs to teammate DJ Chark (28 points), that led JT’s team in scoring. In fact, had JT played Carson Wentz instead, he would have lost the game 95-90. Unfortunately, it’s a tough loss for Nick who drops to 1-4 despite his highest scoring game of the season. Had he started Terry McLaurin in place of Davante Adams (who was ruled out before the game with an injury), he would have picked up the win.

Undefeated no more! In the matchup of teams atop the Leaders Division, Brandon gave Josh his first loss of the season. Despite duds of three points or less from five of his players, Brandon’s studs came up big with Kyler Murray, Christian McCaffrey and Cooper Kupp combining for 83 points. Those three players alone would have been enough to beat Josh who posted his lowest-scoring game this season, getting just 18 points outside of his QB and top-two RBs.

Lastly, indulge me for a minute in a what-if. Let’s imagine for a moment that Brandon had not benched Josh Jacobs (26 points) against the Bears and that he’d started Will Fuller (39 points) in his flex. He would have scored 161 points this week, which would have broken the all-time record. I know that’s a dumb “what if,” because Emmanuel Sanders was probably the right play over Fuller given their play so far this season. And there are a million of these what-ifs in the course of a season. But what if?! We would have had our first week ever with league average scoring over 100 points.

And Will Fuller had 3 TDs, but another two catches inside the 1-yard-line! Which means his 39-point fantasy day could have been even bigger. Like 51-point big. I mean, what if–

Okay, I’ll stop.

Power Rankings

No Gardner Minshew. No problem.

On the strength of her third 100+ point game this season, Jess jumped to the top of the Power Rankings for the first time this season. Last year’s runner-up has now won more than two-thirds of her true games and continues to lead all team owners in RB scoring (49.6 ppg) by a country mile. If newly-traded-for player Carson Wentz can return to the form he showed earlier this season and Adam Thielen can keep his Week 5 momentum going, Jess—who now leads the league in scoring with 106.8 ppg—should be a fixture atop these rankings for weeks to come.

In addition to Jess, this week’s top tier also includes Brandon and Alex, the latter of whom has skyrocketed up the Power Rankings, jumping six spots since Week 3 when he was ninth. In fact, since that time, Alex is 19-3 in true games, scoring 113.0 ppg. Ironically, that’s the same time period during which Saquon Barkley has been out with injury. So what’s been the difference? His RB scoring has actually held steady with Devonta Freeman and Frank Gore holding down the fort while Barkley is out. But his WR scoring has jumped by 14.2 ppg thanks largely to the play of Chris Godwin who after back-to-back weeks of 24+ points now ranks as the #1 WR in fantasy through Week 5. Also, 35 points from the Eagles D/ST last week doesn’t hurt either.

After Alex, Josh drops two spots to fourth, following a subpar outing for him. The middle tier then begins with Greco and Beth Ann who are tied for fifth. Despite their losing records, they both rank ahead of Gray who dropped the most this week, falling four spots into seventh place.

On the flip side, Erik and Samantha were two of this week’s biggest risers, jumping two and three spots into eighth and ninth place, respectively, after big wins in Week 5. Samantha, in addition to Alex, is one of the hottest teams over the last two ranks, going 18-4 in true games over that time period. Both she and Erik rank ahead of JT even though JT is the team owner with the better record.

Finally, Geoff and Nick bring up the rear with Nick dropping to 1-4, following his close loss to JT. Last year’s #1 overall seed is going to have to turn things around soon if he hopes to make it back to the playoffs for the second time in his career.

Playoff Picture

Brandon and Jess are currently projected to win their divisions.

Are we headed for a rematch of last year’s championship game? The Playoff Picture thinks so.

With a crucial victory over previously undefeated Josh, Brandon jumps to the top of the charts with the greatest odds of making the playoffs and a 71% chance of winning the Leaders Division. Meanwhile, Jess is similarly favored with a 64% chance to win her division.

Other projected playoff teams include Josh, Alex, Gray and Beth Ann—the same as last week, but in a slightly different order. From this group, it’s interesting to note that Beth Ann actually has better odds than JT, even though Beth Ann currently has the worse record. (She’s 2-3 while JT is 3-2). But she has several things going for her right now. First off, she’s the better team by TW%. Second, she has the easiest schedule remaining with only three games left against projected playoff teams (Alex, Jess and Gray). And finally third, she’s fifth in points, which means she’s got the points tiebreaker on her side. All of that combines to give her a 53% chance of making the playoffs despite the fact that only 42% of 2-3 teams have gone on to do so.

Other team owners still in the thick of the hunt for the playoffs include Greco, JT, Geoff and Samantha. Greco, JT and Samantha in particular saw big jumps this week with crucial wins. Greco actually has greater odds of making the playoffs than JT, despite the fact that she’s projected to win fewer games (6.0 vs. 6.3). While that may seem counterintuitive, the reason is because Greco currently holds the points tiebreaker over JT. So in simulations where those two tied in wins, Greco got the nod.

Finally, Erik and Nick, both 1-4 have the longest odds to make the playoffs, but again I think these projections might be understating their chances. Both had solid scoring weeks in Week 5 and I spy A.J. Green getting some practice reps on Erik’s bench. Might he return sooner than later? It would certainly provide a boost to Erik’s lineup.

Remember, there’s still plenty of time left in the season. No one is even close to being eliminated. Once upon a time, Nick’s team was 1-6 and then rebounded to finish the year 7-6, which would have been good enough to make a six-team playoff. So hang in there and keep fighting.

Looking Ahead to Week 6

Week 6’s biggest matchup is probably between Josh (4-1) and Alex (3-2), both winning teams in the top-3 of the Power Rankings. Josh is 4-2 all-time against Alex in the regular season.

Also, Brandon and Samantha will face off in a battle of marital bliss. They split the regular season series last year with Brandon defeating Samantha in the semifinals. This week, Samantha will look to get her revenge in a game that features the only two team owners currently on a winning streak.

Other interdivisional matchups this week include Jess vs. Greco, Geoff vs. Gray and JT vs. Erik. In that last matchup, JT—who is already RB-challenged—will be without his best option, David Montgomery, who is on bye. That bodes well for Erik who desperately needs to keep winning.

Finally, after starting 1-0, Nick will look to reverse his four-game losing streak with a victory over Beth Ann. Luckily for him, Beth Ann will be without Marlon Mack and Jack Doyle this week who are on bye.

Can Brandon and Josh keep it going? Will Erik and Nick rebound? And how long can Alex keep this up without Saquon Barkley? We’ll find out the answers to those questions and more in Week 6.

Stay tuned.