6. Nick
Have you seen this thing Bud Light's doing?
Given that we're a fantasy football league comprised mainly of advertising professionals, I thought bringing up something vaguely ad-related might be worthy of discussion. At the very least, if you're reading this at work, your boss might just think you're working instead of preparing for the draft.
Anyway, in honor of the Cleveland Browns' current 17-game regular season losing streak, Bud Light has installed so-called Victory Fridges full of free beer in 10 bars throughout Cleveland. When the Browns win, the fridges will unlock automatically, dispersing some much-needed, celebratory suds on a fan base that's no doubt parched for victory.
Which leads me to wonder—should we be doing the same thing for Nick?
No, Nick is not on a 17-game losing streak. For the record, he's on a 1-game losing streak, which is not a really a streak at all. It's more of a losing jog. But he is in the midst of a particularly long dry spell. Specifically, Nick hasn't the made the fantasy playoffs since... well, since ever. And unfortunately, that makes him the only active owner, not counting league newbie Samantha (who technically already has three playoff appearances and two championships given that she's been my co-owner for the last seven years), to have never made the playoffs.
He came closest in 2016 when he finished 7-6 and fifth in the final regular season standings—just one spot out of the playoffs. That was actually Nick's only winning season of his career. Though in 2012, he finished fifth in the final Power Rankings with a career-best TW% of .545 despite a record of 5-8.
But in between, before, after and generally all around have been some historic lows. Nick ranks first in losses (59), next-to-last in career TW% (.426), next-to-last in scoring average (82.0 ppg) and last in average finish (9.3). He also holds the record for most consecutive losses in a single season (8 from Weeks 4-11, 2014) and worst single-season TW% (.224 last season). And some of those marks are considered "next-to-last" only if we include Terryn, who is no longer a member of the league.
No, things have not been generally good for Nick.
So what gives? What can explain Nick's poor performance and what can he possibly do to improve his odds this season?
First off, Nick could benefit from some better luck. I don't know if he broke a mirror seven years ago, but perhaps that might explain some of what we've seen over the last seven years. After all, Nick is the second-unluckiest owner in the league, trailing only Alex. If we compare his W% to his TW%, we find that he has likely been cheated out of 6-7 games he should have won over the course of seven years. That means, on balance, Nick should have won one more game than he did each year. If he'd done that, for example, in 2016, he likely would have made the playoffs that season. Still, we're typically talking about the difference between winning 4-5 games vs. winning 5-6 games in a given season. That's not enough of a difference to make a meaningful difference in the playoff picture.
Second, Nick could stand to draft better, most definitely. Who couldn't? But he's actually not as bad as you'd think given the results. In fact, Nick ranks in the middle of the pack for drafts in the modern era as ranked by cumulative VBD. He doesn't have a draft in the top-20, sure. But he doesn't have a draft in the bottom-10 either. His positional preferences, though generally favoring WR, are not zany nor do they diverge wildly from the pack. His most extreme draft was probably 2015 in which he started WR-WR-WR, opting not to take a RB until the fifth round. Unfortunately, that Zero-RB approach led to a then-record 10-loss season.
But perhaps most telling for Nick is, thirdly, what happens after the draft. Which is to say not much at all. That's because Nick is the league's least active owner and by a long shot. Remember how we said Greco is one of the league's least active owners? She ranks 11th actually. Well, Nick is half as active as she is.
More specifically, you'll recall that the average owner makes 1.0 trade per season with 1.5 free agent acquisitions and 3.5 bench activations per week. Nick, on the other hand, makes 0.7 trades with 0.3 acquisitions and 1.5 activations per week. Put another way, the average owner picks up 1-2 players a week off the waiver wire. Nick averages 4... per season.
That basically means that Nick operates by the set-it-and-forget-it draft philosophy. He drafts his players, then mostly leaves his roster alone save for a few bye weeks. He is surprisingly active on the trade market, though one might argue he's the target, not beneficiary of trades. His 2015 trades of two top-15 WRs by VBD (A.J. Green and DeAndre Hopkins) for little more than what amounted to a handful of magic beans (LeGarrette Blount, Darren Sproles, Steve Smith and Brandon McManus), none of which finished as top-50 players by VBD, come to mind.
That being said, I'm really not trying to be judgmental here. At least, not in a subjective way. I have long argued that every owner is free to manage their team the way they see fit. After all, there's no rule that says you have to scout the waiver wire or shuttle new players in and out of your lineup on a weekly basis. We do this for fun. And everyone is free to enjoy playing fantasy football however they like. You don't have to be a complete nut job about it like me. And for some people that means drafting a team and watching them play it out. That's totally cool and completely valid.
But what I am saying is that the numbers over the last seven years show that it's not an entirely effective strategy if you want to win. For his career, it seems like Nick has drafted... okay. But he hasn't done much after the draft to improve his team. And then on top of that he's had a little bit of bad luck. It's not a recipe for success.
The flip side of that coin is Greco. But for reasons unbeknownst to us mere mortals, she drafts well. So she doesn't have to improve upon her team. And even still she does it a little more than Nick. And has had good luck to boot.
Is it possible Nick will have better luck in the future? Almost assuredly, yes. But luck alone is not likely to take him to the promised land. That'll take a little elbow grease. And maybe a few taps of the mouse.
This year, Nick was randomly assigned to draft from the eighth position. Perhaps in a sign of greater activity to come, he has negotiated a deal with Gray to move up to the sixth position.
Generally speaking, this seems like a good move. I'm sure Gray has his reasons—likely he's hoping for an earlier second-round pick. Perhaps there's somebody he's targeting at 17 that won't be there at 19. Or maybe he's thinking even later in the draft. But generally a higher pick yields better results. So this move should also benefit Nick who now has a shot at some players that likely wouldn't have been available come the eighth pick.
However, it is worth noting that neither of these two picks have been successful historically. Teams with the eighth pick (now owned by Gray) rank last by career TW% (.436). Meanwhile, teams with the sixth pick (now owned by Nick) have won the fewest total games in league history (38). And perhaps most damning is the fact that the sixth pick is the only draft position to have never made the playoffs. It's a curse!
But perhaps that's exactly what Nick needs—for the odds to be stacked against him. It's the one team owner to have never made the playoffs drafting from the one position to have never made the playoffs. Two negatives equal a positive, right? If ever there were a year or a way for Nick to make the playoffs, maybe it's this one.
This year, the Browns actually have some reason for optimism too. They were the stars of HBO's Hard Knocks. (Bless 'em!) The roster has nearly turned over completely since their last win from 2016 when they were led by RGIII, Isaiah Crowell, Gary Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor. Now with the addition of Tyrod Taylor, Jarvis Landry, and Carlos Hyde, not to mention the return of Josh Gordon, plus rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb, they actually have some talent. Suddenly, the Browns are too good even for Dez Bryant. The question is not if the Browns will win this season, but how much.
We can only hope the same will be said for Nick. Might this be the year he finally breaks through? If it is, I saw we all break out a cold one and celebrate.
To Nick whose hope springs eternal.
