Week 3 Power Rankings
In Week 3, Alex defluggerdy Gribbit… Excuse me, what I meant to say was Drew Beelzebloop thrusseldy floo… Ahem. With 39 puddledywonks…
Sorry, that’s just me struggling to get through the Week 3 recap with my foot in my mouth. After lavishing all sorts of praise on Patrick Mahomes last week and calling into question Alex’s decision to deal the young gun-slinger and P.Y.T. over boring old Drew Brees, the veteran signal-caller promptly went out and led the week in scoring. So what do I know?
Please allow the newly minted quinquagenarian Will Smith to relay my apologies.
Just because I author this blog, doesn’t mean I have any idea what I’m talking about. And in Week 3, that was proven out. So let’s try that again, this time with foot surgically removed from my face.
In Week 3, Alex defeated Gray thanks in large part to Drew Brees who threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs, plus 2 more rushing, with 39 points on the day. (Much better.)
Yes, one week after his backup was traded away, Brees rewarded his owner Alex by leading the NFL in fantasy points. The end result was a top score of 118 points in Week 3 for the commish. That’s Alex’s first-ever weekly prize since they were instituted last season, and the first time he’s led the league in scoring since Week 11 of 2016.
But make no mistake, Alex is on a bit of a hot streak. This is his third straight 100+ point game to start the season and his fourth in a row in the regular season if we go back to 2017 when he ended the year with 106 points in Week 13.
Now let’s take a quick look at the rest of the scoreboard.
As for the other side of last week’s trade, don’t cry for Josh. Sure, 39 points is awesome. But 24 ain’t too shabby either. That’s what Josh’s new QB Patrick Mahomes garnered, leading his team to the 106-93 victory over Geoff.
As a matter of fact, if that trade doesn’t happen, Josh loses to Geoff in Week 3, but not for the reason you think. Ironically it’s not because of Mahomes or Stafford, Josh’s backup who managed a respectable 17 points, but rather because of Robert Woods. That’s the player who got the start for Josh in place of departed AJ Green. And while Green would score just 5 points for Alex due in part to a groin injury, Woods would score a whopping 23 points in Week 3, helping Josh to the win. Without Woods, Josh loses. Fantasy football sure is funny sometimes.
The week’s closest game was a matchup between Erik and Brandon. Entering MNF, Erik needed 20 points from Ryan Fitzpatrick to secure the win. After a first half in which FitzMagic turned FitzTragic with 3 INTs, his prospects looked doubtful. But the Buccaneers QB turned it on in the second half, totaling 24 points including a 24-yard TD to Mike Evans with 5:43 to play, a play worth 5 points, that proved to be the difference.
Meanwhile, Nick halted Jess’ undefeated streak with a 97-79 win behind a balanced rushing attack of Saquon Barkley, Alex Collins and Alfred Morris. His opponent Jess saw a few bench players outscore her starters, most notably Adrian Peterson who was benched in favor of Corey Clement. The difference between those two players (18 points) just so happened to be the difference in the game. But with Mixon temporarily out due to injury and Edelman returning in Week 5, better days are likely ahead.
On the flip side, Samantha got her first win in league history, defeating JT 81-58. Despite Tom Brady’s no-show on SNF, Samantha’s team benefitted from Run CMC’s career day in which he rushed for 184 yards. (His previous high was 66 against the Falcons last November.) That plus the waiver wire addition of Giovanni Bernard (who it looks like might be useful for at least another week) and a fleet of WRs were enough to get it done against a lackluster effort from JT. This was his second game of 70 points or less in as many weeks.
Finally, Greco posted a season-low 45 points in Week 3 in a defeat to Trevor. In fact, that total is tied for the worst of Greco’s career, matching her performances from Week 8 of 2016 and Week 11 of 2015, though both of those came during the bye weeks. Trevor, for his part, managed 84 points despite just 3 points from his starting RBs including ejected Phillip Lindsay.
Now to the Power Rankings!
As we close the door on Week 3, the standings reveal unprecedented parity. In fact, there are six 2-1 teams and six 1-2 teams, which means for the first time in league history we do not have an undefeated team nor do we have a winless team entering Week 4. Like the spaces promulgated by the Dixie Chicks, the playoff race is wide open.
But in the Power Rankings, an early pecking order has begun to take shape. Most notably, Josh and Alex have begun to separate themselves from the pack, each with true records of 28-5, a TW% of .848, and scoring of over 100 ppg. Currently, Josh leads all owners with 113.0 ppg.
Joining Josh and Alex in the top half of the Power Rankings are Erik, Brandon, Jess and Nick. Notably, Brandon is the only owner among this group currently with a losing record. His TW% of .591 reveals that his team, which also ranks fourth in scoring, is slightly better than his record would indicate, even surpassing those ahead of him in the standings. Meanwhile, Trevor falls at the bottom of that group. Those two team owners will have a chance to square off in Week 4.
After a terrific Week 1, JT continues to trend down while Geoff, despite injuries to LeSean McCoy, Greg Olsen and the saga that is Le’Veon Bell, is doing everything he can to stay afloat, moving up two spots into ninth place. Samantha holds steady behind them in 10th.
Finally at the bottom of the rankings, we find two owners we wouldn’t necessarily expect to be here by historical standards—Greco and Gray. Both are underachieving. Of the two, Gray—who like Geoff is dealing with his own injury concerns (Leonard Fournette, Devonta Freeman)—may be the more likely candidate to bounce back given those injuries.
Alright, enough with the pleasantries.
I’m sure you want to know what does this mean about your prospects this season. Are the emergences of Josh and Alex simply hot starts or signs of things to come? Should we put a fork in the league-leaders in playoff appearances, Gray and Greco, who have a combined 10 appearances in seven years, or count on their resurgence?
My answer is probably both.
This time last season, Greco led the Power Rankings with a 27-4-2 true record with an identical .848 TW% to what Josh and Alex have this year. You might recall her early season dominance with rookie sensation Kareem Hunt averaging 28.3 ppg over the first three weeks. Of course, she would go on to make the playoffs and play in the championship game, finishing second. So that’s a vote for “sign of things to come.”
But on the other hand, Greco faded. Dalvin Cook tore his ACL and Hunt was good, not great when it got late. In the end, she finished seventh in the final Power Rankings. Her hot 3-0 start gave her the head start she needed to clinch a playoff berth, but she was not one of the league’s four-best or even six-best teams. So that’s a vote for “hot start.”
Meanwhile, last year’s eventual champion Brandon was just 14-18-1 (.439 TW%) and ninth in the Week 3 Power Rankings. (Hello, Average Jeff!) Despite his slow start including 70-point and 65-point games, he would go on to finish first in the final Power Rankings. And last place in the Week 3 Power Rankings? That was JT whose 5-25-3 record (.197 TW%) is worse than anyone’s this year. Of course, his Zeke-fueled romp through 2017 helped him to the playoffs and a third-place finish. So a resurgence is certainly possible.
All that is to say, it’s still really early. Yes, a good start is undeniably nice. And quite possibly an indicator of more good things to come, even in just the first week.
In fact, I went back and looked at the prospects of all the teams that led the scoring in Week 1. In five of seven years, the team that scored the most points in Week 1 (like Josh this year) went on to make the playoffs. That includes three of the last four champions. Jess in 2014 (142 points), Alex in 2015 (108) and Brandon last year (102). And a fourth champion, Brandon in 2011, tallied the second-most points (127) in Week 1 just behind eventual runner-up Gray.
But if your team hasn’t been great early, don’t throw in the towel just yet. For team owners like Gray, maybe you can take heart in, well… Gray. Following Week 3 of 2013, Gray was 11th in the Power Rankings with a true record of 11-22 (.333 TW%). Not great to say the least. But Gray bounced back, rebounding to finish second in the final Power Rankings and yes, win the championship.
So take heart 1-2 teams. Don’t lose faith if you find yourself in the bowels of the Power Rankings. And if you find yourself on top, count your blessings, but don’t get too cocky just yet either. Fantasy football has a way of humbling people. I know.
Just ask Drew Brees.
