Brandon and Jess to Play for Championship
What was that?
I mean, seriously. What was that?
Call it a Fantastrophy. Bloody Sunday. The Great Regression. Whatever you want to call it, there’s no mistaking that what occurred this weekend was an extinction level event. And in the end, it did claim the playoff lives of two Worst League team owners—Nick and Samantha.
Several prominent players throughout the league had horrendous Week 15s, precisely when it mattered most to fantasy owners. Studs like Saquon Barkley, Phillip Lindsay, James White, Adam Thielen, Michael Thomas, Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Zach Ertz, Eric Ebron, George Kittle, and Cam Newton are all players who average double figures but scored just five points or fewer in Week 15. And that doesn’t even take into account injuries to players like Aaron Jones, Lamar Miller and Keenan Allen who all had zero points. Absolutely brutal.
In Week 15, team owners averaged just 76.4 ppg. Though we don’t officially tally scoring league-wide during the playoffs given that many team owners understandably leave holes in their lineup once eliminated, that number would have ranked as a season low. What’s more, it’s part of a larger downward trend in scoring since Week 13 in which teams are averaging fewer than 79.0 ppg. And remember, this year we set the record for scoring with teams averaging 92.7 ppg through Week 12. It’s shocking, frankly.
This week, Alex’s dormant team led all scorers with 95 points. The last time that would have been the highest point total in a given week was Week 10 of last year when Brandon and Gray led all scorers with 94—over a year ago. And if Week 15 had been a regular season week, it would have ranked as the sixth lowest-scoring week in league history out of 104 total weeks.
Bottom line: fantasy football is not always pretty.
Sometimes you just have to survive and advance. And that’s exactly what Brandon and Jess did in Week 15. Neither team owner topped 90 points, but both advanced following even worse outings for their competitors, Samantha and Nick, who totaled just 78 and 54 points, respectively. Rest in peace.
Week 15 Recap
Brandon and Jess eliminated Samantha and Nick to advance to the title game.
In Week 15, Brandon led the remaining playoff teams with 90 points, though the scoring came from where you’d least expect. No, it wasn’t proven fantasy performers Aaron Jones, Brandin Cooks, Adam Thielen or Travis Kelce. Those guys combined for just 12 points. It was the RB fill-ins Damien Williams (23 points) and Justin Jackson (13) plus the Falcons D/ST, a free agency streamer, that netted 22. It was their production, plus Deshaun Watson (21) who provided just enough points to deliver the 90-78 victory.
Meanwhile, in an attempt to stage a second-straight upset in as many weeks, Samantha fell just short, getting 17 points but needing 30 from Christian McCaffrey on Monday night. Unfortunately, Odell Beckham Jr. did not return from an ill-timed injury to his quad while Amari Cooper was not able to replicate his theatrics from Week 14. Nevertheless, Samantha’s thrilling run to the playoffs and Week 14 upset of Alex served as a fantastic introduction to the league and will be remembered for seasons to come. (Or at least I’ll remember it.)
In the other playoff game, Jess avenged her Week 3 loss to Nick with an 89-54 win in a contest that was never really close. In fact, the combination of Joe Mixon (24 points) and David Johnson (15) plus Philip Rivers (18) would have been enough to beat Nick’s entire team, which mustered just 54 points in his first-ever playoff game.
Unfortunately for Nick, that’s the fewest points he’s scored all season, having previously never scored fewer than 74, and breaks a four-game winning streak dating back to Week 10. Nick’s season-long MVP Saquon Barkley managed a season-low five points while his entire fleet of pass-catchers summarily disappointed, including the mercurial Eric Ebron who failed to register a single point. Tough loss after a terrific, breakthrough 10-win season for Nick.
Still, all is not lost for Nick and Samantha. There’s still the matter of the consolation game and the third-place prize worth the league entry fee of $40. In a matchup between the fifth- and eighth-place teams in the final Power Rankings, the computer favors Nick, giving him a 61% chance to claim his first-ever playoff win. But Samantha has faced longer odds than this.
Good luck to you both! The bronze medal is still up for grabs.
Championship Preview
12 teams entered.
Six advanced to the playoffs.
Just two remain.
Only one will be crowned champion.
It all comes down to this. The 2018 Worst League Championship will be a one-game, winner-take-all battle between Jess and Brandon, both of which are worthy competitors this year (both top-4 in the Power Rankings) and former champions with a long track record of success in the fantasy playoffs.
In fact, Jess and Brandon are arguably the two most successful playoff team owners of all time. Yes, there are other team owners with more playoff appearances—Gray and Greco still lead the league with five appearances in eight years. But no team owner has won a greater percentage of his/her playoff games than either Brandon or Jess who rank rank first and second, respectively. Their combined record in the playoffs is 11-2.
With four playoff appearances, Brandon’s lone loss came in the 2016 championship game—a two-point loss to Geoff. His other two playoff appearances in 2011 and 2017 resulted in championships. And this year, he is now threatening for a third.
Meanwhile, with three playoff appearances, Jess’s only loss came in the 2015 championship game—an eight-point loss to Alex. Previously, she won the 2014 championship and is now on the verge of her second. Coincidentally, hers and Brandon’s losses in the 2015 and 2016 title games are the closest margins of victory in championship history.
Collectively, they have combined for 7 of 16 total championship game appearances. Only twice has a title game not included at least one of these two team owners and not since 2013 has neither appeared in the final game. This year, we get both.
And the short statistical truth is that when these two team owners are in the playoffs, they advance to the championship game without fail. That’s in stark contrast to team owners like Erik, JT and Josh who have multiple playoff appearances without ever having made the title game. As we noted last week, Josh in particular has been unlucky in the playoffs and is now 0-5 all-time. He and now Nick are the only active team owners without a playoff win.
Now after six straight years of new champions, we will soon crown a repeat champion for the second consecutive year. The only question is will it be Brandon’s third or Jess’s second. Neither one of these team owners loses very often in the playoffs. But something’s gotta give.
So who will it be?
Brandon has a 60% chance to win his third title.
The computer rates Brandon as a 2:3 favorite with a 60% probability of winning. But these numbers are based on TW% from Week 13. And man has a lot changed in the two weeks since then. In fact, given their current lineups, ESPN’s official projections rate Jess as a 1.3-point favorite. So, the game is essentially a toss-up.
With just one game to go in the 2018 season, let’s break it down.
The Defending Champion—Brandon
8-5, .671 TW%, 101.3 ppg
After an inauspicious start to the year in which he scored a season-low 66 points, Brandon quickly established himself as a team to beat this season. Though he started 1-2, he quickly reeled off seven straight wins (a season-best) to lock up the Leaders Division.
For the heart of the season including from Weeks 2-9, Brandon was the best team in the league. I often try to avoid talking about myself in these recaps because, well, honestly who wants to hear me talk about myself? But the fact is that I (ahem… shifts back into third-person), Brandon lead all team owners with a .767 TW% over that span. He also led the league in scoring with 111.1 ppg from Weeks 2-8. And that includes Alex.
How’d he do it? The success of Brandon’s team was built on RBs. With the ninth pick in the draft, Brandon selected Kareem Hunt and Melvin Gordon with his first two picks. Even with a respective suspension and injury, both still rate as top-10 RBs for the season. Combine those two with mid-to-late round values Sony Michel and Aaron Jones in the eighth and ninth round, and you’ve got near historic production. In fact, prior to Week 13 in which Brandon was without Gordon and Hunt, Brandon was averaging 43.3 ppg from RBs—a league record. Ultimately, he finished with 41.5 ppg, which ranks third all-time behind Alex (2018) and Gray (2011).
Meanwhile at WR, there were a lot of draft-day whiffs. Chris Hogan (fourth round), Marquise Goodwin (sixth) and Will Fuller (seventh) come to mind. But Adam Thielen in the third was an unmitigated success, rating as the #1 WR through the midway point of the season. Even now despite his recent slump, he ranks sixth.
His QB, Deshaun Watson, was selected way too early in the fifth round—the same round as Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods and Kerryon Johnson. But he’s been solid, ranking eighth among QBs on the season. In recent weeks, he’s been even better, averaging 20.5 ppg since Week 12.
Truly, the only holes on this roster were at WR2 and TE, the latter of which was a struggle for Brandon deep into the season. You’ll recall we touched on this after a Week 6 trade for Jordan Reed and in the season recap where we noted how Brandon dropped Eric Ebron after Week 3, the worst drop of the season. The result was that Brandon didn’t get more than five points from the TE position until Week 11.
Typically, Brandon would have addressed this need through free agency. Historically, he gets 27% of his scoring from the waiver wire. Remember, last year Brandon rode Alvin Kamara’s Week 5 acquisition to the championship. But this year, that number was just 18%, the lowest of his career since 2011.
No it wasn’t free agency, but trade that provided the fix this year. Because of his depth at RB, Brandon was able to convert Sony Michel into Brandin Cooks and Travis Kelce through two deadline deals with JT and Erik. While Cooks has struggled since that deal (6, 2 and 5 points), Kelce has been terrific (26, 13 and 6).
Entering the playoffs as the 2-seed, Brandon faced a difficult road, potentially needing to beat both Alex and Josh to win the championship. But thanks to upsets by Samantha and Jess, the road has been much easier than anticipated. Now he will have had to beat just the #8 and #4 team in the final Power Rankings to win the whole thing.
But where Brandon has been lucky with the schedule and to some degree his placement within the Leaders Division, which helped grant him a first-round bye, his injury luck in the playoffs has been absolutely brutal. A Week 15 injury to Aaron Jones means that all three of Brandon’s starting RBs—the strength of his team—have been lost for some or all of the playoffs.
First, there was Melvin Gordon who suffered a Week 12 MCL sprain that has kept him out for three weeks. Then video surfaced of Kareem Hunt assaulting a woman, and he was lost for the year. (Oh, yeah his backup Spencer Ware was also injured.) And finally, Aaron Jones injured his knee and was placed on IR.
Luckily, it appears Melvin Gordon will return in Week 16. And Brandon does own both Spencer Ware and Damien Williams, the latter of whom will likely get the start following 23 points in Week 15. But he will be without Aaron Jones. And wouldn’t you know it, his handcuff Jamaal Williams is on Jess’s roster. That hurts.
The interesting question—for you and I both—will be who will Brandon start in Jones’s place in the flex. After trading away much of his depth, what’s left are a slew of waiver wire pickups including Kalen Ballage, Robert Foster, Dante Pettis, John Kelly and Alfred Blue. Only one was drafted back in September (Ballage by Jess, ironically) and none inspire a lot of confidence.
Given all of this, Brandon would be the heavy favorite the computer projects him to be if not for the recent blight of injuries. Now he’s going to need to rely on some unexpected names. Even still, the game should be competitive and Brandon has a good shot to take home his third championship in eight years.
The Challenger—Jess
8-4-1, .573 TW%, 94.7 ppg
It’s been an eventful season.
This year, we’ve talked about Alex at length. Marveled as Josh tied the all-time scoring record for points in a single week and discussed their Mahomes-for-Green trade ad nauseum. Catalogued Samantha’s prolific WR corps and her earth-shattering upset of Thanos. Celebrated Nick’s first season as a playoff contender. Charted the rise and fall of JT and his WR-WR-WR strategy. Given props to Erik for selecting what will likely be the #1 overall player by VBD with the first pick. Lamented Geoff’s freaky season without Le’Veon Bell. Stood in slack-jawed wonder at Gray’s ability to turn a little red paperclip into Mike Evans. Watched Trevor’s bet on Mark Ingram go bust. Sang the woes of living in Brandon’s Tight End Wasteland. And for Greco… well, let’s be honest there wasn’t all that much to write home about.
But the one owner we haven’t talked much about is Jess. For the most part, the #4 team in the final Power Rankings has flown well under the radar. She’s never won a weekly prize. She doesn’t lead the league in any major statistical category. And she’s one of only three owners not to have made a trade this season, joining Samantha and Greco. (Perhaps that’s my fault for featuring her infamous 2011 trade so prominently in her draft preview.) Not once did we feature her in a Power Rankings and the one time she was featured prominently on the site was to discuss her somewhat lucky 6-1-1 start. For the record, her luck regressed to the mean as expected with Jess going 2-3 in her last five games as three other team owners finished with luckier seasons than she.
All that being said, we really should have been paying attention to Jess because she is a fantastic fantasy football player. In fact, since her first three years in the league in which she had a league-worst .297 TW%, Jess has been the second-best team owner over the last five. Her TW% of .576 over that time span trails only Gray (.621) and she leads the league with 40.5 wins or an average of 8.1 per season. Now, 2018 is her fifth straight year finishing in the top-5 of the Power Rankings, and she is the only team owner that can say that. Jess is not lucky. She’s good.
This year with the second pick, Jess drafted what is probably the most balanced team in the league. She averages approximately 27 ppg from both RB and WR as well as around 7 ppg from TE, D/ST and K. Her first four picks provided the foundation for that balance—David Johnson and Joe Mixon at RB and T.Y. Hilton and JuJu Smith-Schuster at WR. All rank within the top-15 at their position. She then found terrific depth with mid-to-late round picks, including Julian Edelman (eighth round), Adrian Peterson (ninth) and Tyler Lockett (10th). All three rank between 15-26 at their position. Peterson in particular was a welcome surprise, anchoring Jess’s team in those early weeks in which Joe Mixon was out with injury.
Speaking of Mixon, in the past four years Jess has demonstrated a knack for finding top-10 talent outside the first round. This year, it’s unlikely any of Jess’s players finish within the top-10 by VBD, though Mixon (the 23rd overall pick) is the closest. Still, what she lacks in All-Pro talent, she makes up for with her superior depth.
Truly, this is a team without a weakness. Philip Rivers is QB7, averaging 19.1 ppg. She snagged an excellent defense in the 13th round in the Rams D/ST, which ranks fourth. Her kicker, who at time has given her fits, ranks sixth and is coming off back-to-back double-digit games. And even after losing sixth-round pick Delanie Walker to a season-ending leg injury in Week 1, Jess claimed Jared Cook off waivers. Now he ranks as TE5, trailing only Kelce, Ebron, Kittle and Ertz (the “elite” at the position this season). And in fact, it could all come down to Cook who is the only player on either team in the championship game playing Monday night.
Despite losing three of her last five games, Jess entered the playoffs as one of the league’s hottest team owners by scoring and TW%. She then turned that fire on the top-rated team on her side of the bracket (Josh) before “upsetting” top-seeded Nick in the semifinals. In fact, Jess was the least likely team from her side of the bracket to advance to the title game with just a 21% probability in our playoff preview.
Now she faces off against Brandon. Their only other meeting this season was an embarrassing 32-93 defeat. Those 32 points scored by Jess were the fewest by a team owner in a single week this season. She definitely doesn’t want to repeat that. But the reality is you can throw that game out the window because nearly Jess’s entire team was on bye, including David Johnson, Joe Mixon and T.Y. Hilton. Certainly, that won’t be the case this weekend.
What can we expect? Probably a very close match.
In fact, if Brandon and Jess had played each other every single week this season, Brandon would have won that 15-game series by a margin of 9-6. But what’s really interesting to note is that includes six games that would have been decided by four points or less, including last week where they were separated by just one point.
The Prediction
Look, I’m not actually going to make a pick here. Especially, because I’m one of the two teams involved. Don’t want to jinx myself, you know.
But I think it’s safe to say that come Christmas morning, Jess and Brandon will no doubt emerge from their beds, come flying down the stairs and fling open their fantasy stockings for a peek at what’s inside. Both will hope for a championship. But somebody’s getting coal.
You just gotta hope your fantasy team has been nice.
