Week 9 Power Rankings — The Worst League

You know that scene in Anchorman when Ron’s Channel 4 news team ends up in a back alley squabbling with Wes Mantooth only to be confronted by the news teams of Channel 2, PBS and Telemundo? Suddenly, what started as fisticuffs between gentle fellows spirals into an all-out brawl featuring horses, a man on fire and a trident. I mean, Brick killed a guy!

In the words of Ron Burgundy, “that escalated quickly.”

Live look at Alex from this weekend after scoring 148 points, the second-most ever, with his sights on that weekly prize only to have Josh score 152.

Well, that’s what this season is like.

Every week it seems we are setting new scoring records. This season, team owners are averaging 91.9 ppg, which is easily on pace to be the highest-scoring season of all-time. In fact, three of the top five scoring weeks in league history have occurred in 2018. And through nine weeks, we’ve had 41 triple-digit scorers, which is five more than the next-closest season at the same time and 21 more than we had just last year through Week 9. That’s more than double!

And just when you think this season couldn’t get any crazier, we had not one, but two owners write their names into the record books this week with near record-setting point totals. Those owners are Alex and Josh who scored 148 and 152 points, respectively in Week 9. The latter ties the record for most points in a single week, which was set by Trevor in Week 9 of 2011, while the former now ranks third all-time behind only Trevor and Josh.

Oh and by the way, we also had two owners go for 115 points in Week 9. Plus, we’ve got three owners averaging over 40 ppg from the RB position, something which has only been accomplished twice and not since 2014. And two owners now averaging over 110 ppg. That’s never been done. Ever.

I mean, this season is absolutely bonkers, which is going to make for a very interesting finish to the regular season and the playoffs. Because when there’s no ceiling to how many points team owners can pile up in a given week, no lead is ever safe. And the arms race is on. You cannot bring a knife to this gun fight.

Better be like Brick and grab a grenade.

The Scoreboard

Josh wins the weekly prize this week with 152 points. It’s his third weekly prize of the season and his fourth since they were instituted last season, which ties him with Brandon on the season and pushes him past JT for the second-most in league history. Josh gains an important 152-64 victory over Gray, allowing him to keep pace with Brandon in the Leaders Division, while Gray drops to 4-4-1 and out of playoff position for the first time in weeks. Key in Josh’s record-setting day were huge games from RBs Alvin Kamara (29 points), Tevin Coleman (26) and James White (22) not to mention 23 points from the Vikings D/ST, which recorded 10 sacks on Sunday.

Josh leads all scorers with a record-tying 152 points in Week 9.

Speaking of big defensive scores, Alex totaled 29 points from the Bears D/ST en route to a 148-66 victory over Geoff. Alex’s lowest scorer, Phillip Lindsay, still recorded 8 points while eight of his remaining nine hit double-digits, none more emphatically than Drew Brees who scored a team-high 30 points. Speaking of which, this is my weekly reminder to never say anything about Drew Brees ever again. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, here’s what I wrote in last week’s Power Rankings.

One has to wonder whether or not seller’s remorse might be creeping in for Alex as Brees has averaged just 14.0 ppg since scoring 39 points in Week 3. Mahomes of course is the leading scorer in all of fantasy, averaging 24.8 ppg over that same time span. Granted, Alex turned Mahomes into what is now DeAndre Hopkins (WR3 on the season). But this will no doubt be a transaction that will figure into this year’s championship one way or another. Of course, now that I’ve said this, Brees will of course go off in Week 9 in an inviting matchup with the Rams.

I guess I was half-right.

In another important game with playoff implications, Erik kept it rolling against Nick, winning by a score of 115-94. That was thanks in part to a big game from Calvin Ridley who scored a crucial 13 points in the flex position with Alshon Jeffery on bye and Randall Cobb shrewdly sidelined while recovering from injury. In his previous three games, Ridley had just 11 points combined but rewarded his owner with production for the faith Erik showed in starting him. Nick meanwhile drops his second-straight game after starting 6-1 and falls to 6-3 with Alex at 5-4 nipping at his heels in the Legends Division.

Speaking of the Legends Division, its leader Jess scored (if you can call it that) an embarrassing 32 points in a Week 9 loss to Brandon by a score of 93-32. It was the sixth-fewest points in league history and the fewest since Trevor scored 31 in Week 4 of 2015, also against Brandon. This is Jess’s third career game of 39 points or less, which is second-most among active team owners trailing only Erik. If we can forgive Jess for this output, it’s because she had six players on bye on her roster including four likely starters in David Johnson, Joe Mixon, T.Y. Hilton and Golden Tate. Meanwhile, Brandon wins his sixth-straight game to rise to 7-2 and take the lead in the official standings.

JT had a good weekend, defeating Trevor 115-42 behind double-digit scoring efforts from seven of nine starters including Julio Jones (18) who registered his first TD of the season. Trevor, like Jess, suffered from a blight of starters on bye including A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and Zach Ertz plus (doh!) Dalvin Cook who was finally healthy and scored 10 points but was on Trevor’s bench. Of course, that wasn’t all that made it a good weekend for JT. We’re burying the lede here. JT got married! Mazel tov to the happy couple. Perhaps the vaunted “martial boost” will power your team to the playoffs. (P.S. Don’t forget to sub Latavius Murray out of your lineup before hitting the honeymoon.)

Finally, Samantha got a much-needed win, defeating Greco by a score of 80-54 behind 26 points from Christian McCaffrey. The loss drops Greco to 2-7 and ensures that she will have her first losing season in league history. Hey, welcome to the club. Literally, all of us have had at least one losing season now (Samantha excepted). And there’s certainly no shame in one losing season in eight years. Plus, you’re not out of the playoffs. So don’t throw in the towel just yet.

The Power Rankings

Buoyed by historic scores in Week 9, Alex and Josh surged further ahead in this week’s Power Rankings, widening the gap between themselves and now third-ranked team owner Brandon. Both are performing at historic rates and, since we’re getting close to the season’s end, it’s worth pointing out these two rank third and fourth in all-time TW%. In order to break the record set by Gray in 2016 (.808 TW%), one would need to finish with no more than three true losses for the rest of the season. It’s a long shot, but it’s possible.

The rest of the Power Rankings remain relatively stable. After another strong showing in Week 9, Erik gains some ground on Brandon for third place though still remains six games back. In the middle tier, Nick and Jess swap places following her disastrous Week 9 outing. Meanwhile, don’t look now but JT is just one game out of sixth place. Samantha and Trevor also swap positions in eighth and ninth, respectively.

And then Gray, Greco and Geoff once again bring up the bottom tier. Since we talked all-time records at the top, here’s a quick note about all-time futility. Both Greco and Geoff need 32.5 true wins to avoid tying Nick’s record from last season for worst team of all time. That means Geoff needs 11 true wins and Greco needs 8.5 out of the remaining 44. For Geoff, that’s 25%, which given his TW% of .217 means he needs to pick it up a little bit. Currently, he’s on pace to have the worst TW% of all time. Nick’s record is .224.

The Playoff Picture

With four games left to go, it’s shaping up to be a seven-team race for six playoff spots with Brandon and Jess as the biggest locks to make the playoffs. If we remove those two from the equation, it’s really a five-team race for four spots between Josh, Nick, Alex, Erik and Gray. Those on the outside looking in include Samantha, JT and Trevor with Geoff and Greco as extreme long shots.

Brandon and Jess are the favorites for the top two seeds with four games to go.

But rather than go line-by-line through the Playoff Picture this week, I’m going to mix up the format a bit and ask a few questions instead.

What will be the biggest storyline down the stretch?

Surprisingly, the numbers suggest that who makes the playoffs may not be as intriguing a question as how. That’s because the two teams in the back of the top half of the Power Rankings (Nick and Jess) have the best records while two teams in the middle of the standings (Alex and Josh) have the best teams. And a fifth team (Brandon) already has seven wins. That means that really just one playoff spot is in play—the one for which Erik and Gray (and to a lesser degree 4-win Samantha) are currently competing. In all likelihood, six of those first seven teams will make the playoffs.

But in what order? That remains the biggest piece of the puzzle, especially considering that the two division winners and top seeds will receive a first-round bye in the playoffs. Were the playoffs to start today, those two team owners would be Brandon and Jess, who are the favorites to win their respective divisions. Notably, neither of those two owners are in the top two of the Power Rankings.

That means there’s a distinct possibility the top two team owners (Alex and Josh) could end up on the same side of the playoff bracket and face off before the championship. For example, were the playoffs to start today, the top half of the bracket would feature the 4-seed Josh against 5-seed Alex with the winner playing 1-seed Brandon. All three of those owners currently rank within the top-three of the Power Rankings, yet only one would be able to compete for the championship.

Who will win the Legends Division?

The numbers say Jess. Yes, she had a terrible Week 9. Yes, Nick is only a half game back with four to play. Yes, Alex has the far superior team. And yes, she trails both in the all-important points tiebreaker, Nick by 28 and Alex by 181.

But the schedule lines up so nicely for her. In fact, she has the easiest possible remaining schedule with games against Trevor, Greco, Geoff and Erik. The first three are very winnable games against teams ranked in the bottom-four of the Power Rankings. Even if she were to just win two of those, it would be difficult for Nick or Alex to catch her. That’s because Nick would have to win three of his last four including defeating either Josh (2nd in TW%) or Brandon (3rd). Meanwhile Alex, because he is a game-and-a-half back would have to win out. And though his team is very talented, he has the second-hardest remaining schedule with games against Erik, Josh and Brandon, the three other teams in the top-four of the Power Rankings. Given all that, it’s why Jess has a 73% chance to take home the division and is still the favorite to get a first-round bye.

Who will win the Leaders Division?

At 7-2, Brandon has a two-game lead on the division with four games to go. At this point, the only team owners that could potentially catch him are Josh and Erik. (Yes, technically so too could Trevor and Geoff, but the points tiebreaker essentially eliminates them from a chance at the division crown.)

If we assume Josh maintains his points lead on Brandon, he’d still need two more wins than Brandon over the last four. That means Josh needs Brandon to lose at least two of his remaining four games when he’s only lost twice all season. Plus Josh, himself, needs to win out in that scenario. Complicating that fact is that Josh has the tougher remaining schedule. Both play Nick, Samantha and Alex. But Brandon gets Gray while Josh gets JT.

For Erik, because he trails Brandon in points, he’d need to Brandon to lose at least three games, which occurred in less than 10% of all simulations. Plus, he too would have to win out in that scenario.

It’s certainly not a lock. But Brandon, like Jess, is the favorite to win his division. And of the two, he is currently projected to earn the top overall seed for the second year in a row.

Who is a dark horse that could make a run at the playoffs?

Of the teams currently with less than a 5% chance of making the playoffs, I like Trevor.

Yes, Samantha has the best roster in my opinion and the best record. But the schedule just is not favorable with games remaining against Erik, Josh and Brandon. JT has the best team according to the Power Rankings and the most points among these candidates, but he still has two very tough games against Erik and Josh to close the season.

But Trevor has just the right mix of talent and opportunity. After this week, his starters are all done with their byes. Plus, he’ll be getting Dalvin Cook back in Week 11, which could be a major shot in the arm. The roster’s not great. He needs Mark Ingram to play better and losing A.J. Green for at least a couple weeks to a toe injury is not helpful. But the schedule is inviting with games against Jess, Gray, Nick and Samantha. If he can win out, which he did in 335 out of 10,000 simulations, then he has a shot to sneak into the playoffs at 7-6.

Which long shot has the best chance?

I actually kinda like Geoff’s chances.

Why? Two words: Le’Veon Bell. Bell’s absence has no doubt had a large ripple effect across the league this season. But if he were to return (which according to extremely confusing and contradictory reports would have to be before November 13 to play this season), he could obviously have a major impact on Geoff’s team. Plus, the schedule is no murderer’s row with games against JT, Jess, Gray and Nick. It’s doable. Win out and Geoff can still get to 7-6.

What about Greco? Isn’t she eliminated yet?

No, actually. Despite her 2-7 record, Greco could still make the playoffs. Technically, it didn’t happen once in 10,000 simulations. It’s improbable, but mathematically it’s still possible. If she wins out, she goes 6-7 and only two teams have currently bested six wins—Brandon and Jess. So the fat lady has not yet sung on Greco’s season.

That being said, her odds are long. And she has been mathematically eliminated from winning the Leaders Division. She’s five games back with just four to go. At this point, there’s no way she could catch Brandon even if she were to win out and Brandon lose out.

Looking Ahead to Week 10

Every game is important with just four weeks left in the regular season.

In Week 10, Brandon and Jess will look to press their advantages with games against Gray and Trevor, respectively—two teams who can ill afford a loss. Meanwhile, Josh and Nick play a game between two challengers hoping to play spoiler for their division crowns. The winner keeps pace in their division or in Nick’s case could possibly take the lead.

Alex, who has one of the most difficult remaining schedules, must keep it going this week against Greco, a team who is now on the brink of elimination. A loss would almost certainly eliminate her from the playoffs. JT and Geoff, both at 3-6, are also fighting for their playoff lives.

But perhaps the biggest game of the week will be between Erik and Samantha. If she can get the win, Samantha would not only lift her record to 5-5, but she’d deliver a key blow to Erik with whom she’s competing for the sixth and final playoff spot. It’s a hugely important game, not only for these two, but also for Gray who will be eying the results of this contest, likely rooting for Samantha. Though we haven’t spent much time talking about Gray, he’s obviously a major contender to make the playoffs, especially now that it appears Leonard Fournette may finally be returning from injury in Week 10.

That’s it for me in Week 9. Goodnight, Worst League.

I’m Ron Burgundy?