Trevor Makes a Bet on Mark Ingram

We have a BLOCKBUSTER deal on our hands!

In the second trade of the week and the fifth in the last three, Trevor trades 12th-overall pick DeAndre Hopkins and Phillip Lindsay to Alex in exchange for A.J. Green and Saints RB Mark Ingram. Hopkins is now the first player this season to be traded that was originally taken in the first round of this year’s draft.

In exchange, Trevor will receive second-round pick A.J. Green. Though he was a lower draft pick, Green has technically outscored Hopkins (55 to 54) through four weeks. You might also recall that Alex has owned Green for just two weeks, one of which included an early exit for Green due to a groin injury in Week 3. Now Green hot potatoes over to Trevor after he was initially traded to Alex from Josh for Patrick Mahomes.

But despite the fact that both Hopkins and Green are the higher profile players in the trade, the RBs are actually the more interesting part of the deal to me. Sure, Hopkins was viewed in greater esteem before the season, but Green and QB Andy Dalton are off to a great start. In my opinion, it just comes down to personal preference. Who do you like better? Hopkins or Green? You can’t really go wrong with either. (Though obviously Alex disagrees with this or he wouldn’t have made the trade and I don’t love that Trevor will now be starting two Bengals WRs.)

But the RBs are a different story. Whereas Hopkins and Green have scored virtually the same number of points and have long been regarded as elite talents, Lindsay and Ingram have vastly different stories. Lindsay is the undrafted (in our draft) and undrafted (in the “real” draft) Broncos rookie RB who has usurped much of the role that was expected to belong to Alex’s third-round pick Royce Freeman. After four weeks, he ranks 15th among RBs and that includes one week in which he left the game early due to an ejection.

For Alex, it’s a bit of a homer pick for the Broncos fan who was last sighted at Mile High Stadium this past Monday where he got an in-person look at both RBs, both of which scored TDs en route to double-digit points. But can you blame him? Lindsay has been productive and is even more valuable to a Royce Freeman owner. Though I anticipate many headaches for Alex in the weeks ahead, trying to decide which Broncos RB to start. But that’s a good problem to have.

But for Trevor, this is where it really gets interesting. He has probably been one of the most successful owners so far on the waiver wire, acquiring both Phillip Lindsay (Week 2) and Tyler Boyd (Week 3)—both times without the first or even second waiver claim. That means others (myself included) passed on these productive free agents.

Now he trades a productive Lindsay, a known commodity, for fifth-round pick Mark Ingram who has yet to play a game due to a four-game suspension for PEDs. In Ingram’s absence, Saints RB Alvin Kamara has been a stud. Currently, he ranks as the #1 RB in fantasy, continuing the dominance he displayed last season. Now that Kamara has more than demonstrated an ability to succeed as the lead back in New Orleans, it’s fair to wonder what role Ingram will have when he returns to the team this week. After all, Kamara is the younger, more dynamic back. Might Ingram’s days be numbered?

But let’s not forget what Ingram did last year. Yes, Kamara scored 226 points, finishing as the 4th-ranked RB last season. But Ingram was no slouch either. He scored 206 points and ranked 6th among RBs, finishing as the 6th overall player by VBD. That means he was worthy of a first-round pick. And that was with Kamara. Yes, he’s a year older, but he’s still just 28.

All of which means there’s a wide range of outcomes for Ingram. He could cede much of the carries or even some of the goal-line work to Kamara, which would probably drop him into flex territory. But if he simply replicates or even regresses a little from his performance last season, then he’s at least an RB2 with potential to be an RB1. It’s hard to see Lindsay having that kind of a ceiling without an injury to Royce Freeman. Don’t forget Devontae Booker also factors into that backfield in Denver.

I’d say (strangely) Linday is the safer pick. But Ingram is a real swing for the fences. And as I type this a little over two miles from Fenway Park where the Red Sox will take on the Yankees today, I sure don’t mind a good swing of the bat.