Week 4 Power Rankings

As Earl Thomas was carted off the field Sunday, he flipped off his own sideline, signaling his frustration over a contract dispute that ultimately ended in a season-ending injury.

But he might well have been speaking on behalf of defenses league-wide. That’s because there’s nothing that better encapsulates the early story of this season like the image of the once fearsome Legion of Boom finally exiting stage left. Yes, my friends, offense is king. And in 2018, it’s here to reign.

In Week 4, scoring was up big. The league averaged a blistering 97.1 ppg in Week 4. With a cumulative 1,165 total points scored, it was the third-highest scoring week in league history and the most points in a single week in over two years. For now, that record still belongs to Week 2 of 2011 in which teams averaged an unfathomable 99.9 ppg.

But who knows how long that record will stand? This season, we are already on pace to have the highest-scoring year in league history. One year after averaging just 82.5 ppg, scoring is up to a ridiculous 90.5 ppg. By comparison, the historical average is 86.0 ppg.

Most of that increase is due to how NFL teams have taken to the air. In Week 4, we saw big production from QBs with six 30+ point games, including a 5-TD game for Gray’s backup QB Jared Goff. (It was a good week to have Cam Newton on a bye.) In fact, QB scoring this year is now at 19.9 ppg, which is up +2.6 ppg over the historical average.

But it’s at WR where we’ve had our biggest jump. Historically, the league averages 22.5 ppg from WRs. This season, that total is 26.5 ppg or an increase of +4.0 ppg! Almost single-handedly WRs are accounting for the total increase in scoring.

All of which means that to win this season, you’ve got to be able to put up points. Just ask JT, whose 112 points weren’t enough this week. Or Trevor, whose 92 points, normally more than enough for a win, didn’t even rank in the top-half of the league.

So with that, let’s go to the scoreboard.

In Week 4, Brandon led all scorers with 125 points in a dramatic race for the weekly prize that culminated on MNF with Kareem Hunt’s game-winning TD run. This is Brandon’s second weekly prize this season and now his seventh in the last 16 weeks, which is at least a share of over 43% of all prizes, #humblebrag. He defeats Trevor despite his aforementioned 92 points as Baker Mayfield and an injured Dalvin Cook came up short.

Meanwhile, other top scorers this week included Jess (122 points), Josh (121), Gray (120) and JT (112). For Jess, it was an impressive victory over last week’s co-leader of the Power Rankings, Alex who benched his league-leading defense for a streamer that scored -3 points. For what it’s worth, it would not have made the difference.

Josh continued his winning ways and staged a late charge for the weekly prize thanks to Patrick Mahomes’ late-game heroics. Though Josh came up just short, his 121 points were more than enough to defeat Greco whose squad continues to struggle. More on that below.

Gray gets an important victory over JT to somehow stay in the mix at 2-2 despite a litany of early-season injuries and a couple of key players on bye. (This is what we call treading water.) Though JT scored a season-high 112 points including a breakout game for Andrew Luck, it was not enough to get the win despite nearly doubling the 58 points he scored last week. But he has got to be encouraged by Luck as well as the play of Kerryon Johnson.

Erik easily takes down Geoff despite investing a little too much in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 4, we saw what may be the end of FitzMagic as Ryan Fitzpatrick was benched after scoring just 3 points. Then, Mitchell Trubisky demolished his Buccaneers D/ST, earning Erik -9 points. Had he started Carson Wentz and not swapped out his defense on Sunday morning just before the games kicked off, he would have scored 132 points and won the weekly prize.

Finally, Nick defeats Samantha in a game that unexpectedly came down to the wire on MNF thanks in part to an injury to Sammy Watkins. Had Emmanuel Sanders converted the hook-and-ladder on the game’s final play, Samantha would have completed the comeback. Of course, having the week’s leader in WR points on your bench also hurts.

So, how is the league shaping up? Let’s get to the Power Rankings.

For the fourth consecutive week, Josh continues to reign over the Power Rankings. With a 3-1 record, a TW% of .841 and an average of 115 ppg, he clearly seems like the team to beat this season and the early frontrunner for one of two coveted byes in the playoffs.

His co-leader in the Power Rankings, Alex, slips a bit in Week 4 following an average scoring effort in a week in which multiple owners hit triple-digits. More stinging, however, is probably the loss, which drops him to 2-2 despite having one of the league’s best teams.

Joining him at 2-2 is Brandon. Following a Week 1 game in which he scored just 66 points, Brandon has been lights out, averaging 114.6 ppg over the last three weeks. Ironically, he’s had a bit of bad luck, losing every week in which he’s failed to score the most points. That’s a high bar for anyone to hit.

Brandon also takes over the third spot, previously occupied by Erik who falls to fourth. Nevertheless, Erik just might be one of the hottest teams in the league, having won three straight games to rise to 3-1 in the standings and could have possibly been even higher in the Power Rankings were it not for the bit of roster mismanagement courtesy of the Buccaneers.

Finally, accompanying this top group of teams is Jess who has twice posted scores of 116 points or more. She along with the four teams above her in the rankings have distanced themselves a little from the pack, all with a TW% above .636.

After this top group, we come to Nick who is… wait, Nick is 3-1?!? Yes, that is right. Nick is 3-1, friends. It’s his best start sine 2014 when he also started 3-1. Of course, he then went on to lose seven straight games and eight of his last nine to finish 4-9. So maybe let’s not count our chickens just yet.

Trevor, despite his autodrafted roster, is performing admirably, ranking seventh currently thanks in part to some early work on the waiver wire and in the trade market. Nearly 20% of his points so far have come from free agency and trade, which ranks tops in the league.

Among the 1-3 teams, JT ranks highest, sliding in at eighth in the Power Rankings. Meanwhile, Gray is the worst of the 2-2 teams, ranking ninth overall. Still, he is trending up for where he’s been this season, which is in the cellar. After 120 points in Week 4, we definitely see signs of life for Gray’s squad.

Samantha and Geoff rank 10th and 11th in the standings. Both are 1-3 with Geoff trending down following the second-lowest scoring total this season of just 55 points.

And finally, bringing up the caboose is Greco who has now lost three games in a row for the first time in over three years. Not since the start of 2015 has she had a losing streak of at least three games. And in fact, she is the only active owner (besides Samantha) to have never had a four-game losing streak, which of course will be tested this week as she faces off against possibly the only other team owner who has struggled as much as she has in the early going—Geoff. It’s a battle of the Worst’s worst.

But given how prolific scoring has been this year, even being the worst ain’t too shabby.